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SCP-1391 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1391
Expected annual
$2.5M
One-time setup
$2.3M
Annual recurring
$2.5M
Personnel
24
Initial capital outlay is approximately $2.27M driven by land acquisition, perimeter fencing, surveillance and heavy-lift equipment; recurring annual operations are roughly $2.46M driven by security/payroll, legal/cover costs, storage/IT and contingency reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.3M
Equipment $1.1M
[#5, #7, #8, #9, #11, #13, #27, #32] Guard equipment/uniform issuance, CCTV purchase & install, high-frame-rate/specialized sensors, server/hardware for video storage (hardware portion), on-site vehicles purchase, optional heavy-lift crane/flatbed purchase, one-time PPE purchase, and signage/barriers.
Facilities $828K
[#1, #2, #23, #34] Land purchase/lease alternative (purchase chosen here), 3 m barbed-wire fence installation, and backup power installation (generator/ATS/UPS). Includes initial site prep and structural installs.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $158K
[#16, #28] Laboratory instrumentation and portable analytical gear (XRF, microscopes, CT access contracts) plus initial archival/database setup for names/dates correlation.
Legal And Cover Setup $100K
[#21] One-time setup costs for front company/shell org creation, legal counsel for initial setup, permits and cover paperwork.
Cultural Liaison Setup $30K
[#20] Initial trust-building, liaison hiring/setup and legal/consulting fees related to cultural liaison / tribal payments setup.
Training Initial $20K
[#31] Initial security, cultural-sensitivity, medical and heavy-equipment operation training courses and certifications.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.5M/yr
Staff Wages $1.5M/yr
[#4, #10, #15] On-site guard force salaries (16 guards with benefits/overhead), video monitoring/IT operator salaries (~4 FTE), and research staff/technician salaries (~3-5 researchers and support staff).
Cover Story And Legal $390K/yr
[#20, #21, #22, #33, #30] Ongoing cultural liaison / tribal payments, legal/PR support for cover maintenance, public relations/community management, FOIA/record-suppression responses, and front-facing insurance/indemnity.
Emergency Incident Reserve $150K/yr
[#29] Rapid escalation reserve for mass formations, large removals, media leaks or injuries (overtime, ad hoc contractors, emergency procurement).
Logistics And Transport $112K/yr
[#12, #14, #19] Vehicle fuel & maintenance, heavy-equipment rental contingency for incident mobilizations, and detainment/transport/relocation costs for civilians.
Video Storage And Growth $100K/yr
[#9] Recurring storage growth, tape/RAID replacement, backup and secure offsite replication costs for multi-camera high-resolution feeds.
Facilities Maintenance $60K/yr
[#3, #25] Fence & perimeter repair budget due to manifestations/wear and groundskeeping/vegetation control, seasonal maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $49K/yr
[#17, #28] Ongoing sample analysis/contracted testing (CT, radiometric, chem analyses) and archival/database license/analyst time.
Land Lease $40K/yr
[#1] Lease alternative to purchase (included as recurring option).
Supplies And Consumables $25K/yr
[#6, #27, #32] Guard consumables (ammo, batteries, radio licenses), recurring PPE replenish, and small annual signage/barrier replacements.
Hazardous Material Handling $25K/yr
[#26] Hazmat call-outs, hazardous waste disposal and specialized containment for biohazardous stone material.
Backup Power Fuel $12K/yr
[#24] Generator fuel, routine maintenance and load testing for backup power systems.
Amnestic Supply And Admin $6K/yr
[#18] Class-C amnestic production/stockpile costs and occasional medical administration call-outs.
Training Refreshers $6K/yr
[#31] Recurring refresher training for security, medical, cultural sensitivity and equipment operation.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.5M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, no major incidents or large-scale formations.
routine surveillance scheduled maintenance standard research activity
🚨 Minor Incident $2.7M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Moderate formation event requiring multiple crane/loader mobilizations, overtime for staff and increased contracted testing.
clustered new heads formation frequent perimeter damage small media attention
🚨 Major Breach $3.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Significant exposure or mass-formation event causing major legal action, broad media coverage, large-scale contractor deployments and settlements.
media leak mass formation or public injuries litigation or public inquiry
👥 Personnel 24 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent (Guards) 16 [#4, #5, #6] 16 guards to staff rotations/supervisors; wages and equipment costs accounted in staff_wages and equipment.
Video Monitoring / IT Operator 4 [#10, #9] ~3-6 FTE suggested for monitoring; 4 FTEs assumed for cost estimate and included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist / Technician 4 [#15, #16, #17, #28] Research team (archaeology/forensics/anthropology + technicians) to study stones and maintain databases; salaries included in staff_wages and lab setup in initial_research_and_lab_setup.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, allowing a reasoned estimate, but uncertainties remain (buy vs rent decisions, frequency/scale of anomalous formations, and political/legal variability). That yields a medium confidence.
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