SCP-1409 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1409
Expected annual
$55.2M
One-time setup
$3.8M
Annual recurring
$54.2M
Personnel
19
Initial capital costs are moderately large (vessel purchase/retrofit, acoustic facilities, and specialized equipment) while annual recurring costs are dominated by a large standing contingency reserve and ongoing personnel and vessel operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.8M
Equipment $2.8M
[#3, #4, #5, #9, #11, #12, #13, #18, #28] Hardened playback devices & transport cases, noise‑cancelling PPE stock, chain‑of‑custody IT hardware, dedicated vessel purchase/retrofit, RHIBs/boarding craft, dive kits and compressor, emergency medical gear/mobile chamber, satellite/comms hardware, and archive redundancy copies/insured transport.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $700K
[#16, #22] Audio research lab setup and one‑time amnestic R&D funding/experimentation budget.
Facilities $240K
[#1, #2, #14] Vault construction/installation, soundproofed playback room buildout, and holding/containment cell construction.
Initial Training And Certification $30K
[#7] Initial diver certification costs for assigned staff (one‑time initial training for 30 staff).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $54.2M/yr
Contingency Reserve Annual Allocation $50.0M/yr
[#29] Standing contingency fund / annual readiness allocation for large‑scale/mass‑exposure events (minimum allocation per analyst notes).
Staff Wages $1.5M/yr
[#6, #8, #16] Salaries for 2 Level‑2 supervisors + 4 on‑site guards, dedicated MTF Gamma‑6 (10 personnel), and research staff salaries (2–3 FTEs).
Logistics And Transport $1.1M/yr
[#10, #19, #11] Dedicated vessel operations (crewing, fuel, maintenance), routine consumables for vessels/diving operations, and small craft (RHIB) maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $483K/yr
[#17, #18, #27, #28, #16] Hydrophone maintenance/missions, satellite subscriptions and comms fees, environmental monitoring cruises and analysis, archive storage rotation/insurance, and non‑salary research operating costs.
Personnel Admin Overhead $386K/yr
[#24] Employer overheads (20–30% of payroll) for benefits, payroll taxes and HR administration.
Contracts Coastguard $125K/yr
[#26] Retainer and availability fees for contracted civilian vessels/crew or local maritime agencies.
Training Exercises $120K/yr
[#25] Quarterly drills, tabletop exercises and SOP maintenance costs.
Supplies And Consumables $100K/yr
[#3, #4, #12, #5] Replacement playback/media devices and seals, replacement headphones and PPE, dive spares and small equipment, and routine IT consumables for chain‑of‑custody systems.
Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr
[#21] Legal retainer and baseline cover‑story/PR readiness budget.
Per Test Operations $60K/yr
[#30] Operational cost of authorized lab playbacks (single‑use media, supervisor time, room use), estimated at ~20 tests/year.
Incident Response Expected $50K/yr
[#20] Expected annual budget for interdiction, apprehension and evidence processing averaged across likely small incidents.
Medical And Medevac Expected $50K/yr
[#13, #15, #20] Routine medical/psychiatric observation costs, medevac contingencies and emergency medical supplies averaged annually.
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#1, #2, #14, #28] Ongoing maintenance for vault, soundproof room, containment cells, and archive site rotations/inspections.
Diver Recertification $10K/yr
[#7] Annual recertification and medicals for assigned diving staff (recurring portion).
Termination Contingency Expected $10K/yr
[#23] Small annual allocation toward potential legal/forensic costs associated with extreme contingency options (per‑incident costs budgeted separately if triggered).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $54.2M/yr
84.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine monitoring, testing, and maintenance only.
routine_operations scheduled_tests standard_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $54.4M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Single small vessel intercept or limited exposure event requiring interdiction, evidence processing, localized legal/PR response and additional medical care.
single_vessel_interception limited_public_exposure local_legal_action
🚨 Mass Exposure $254.2M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Large‑scale exposure or mass movement toward Point 1409‑Alpha requiring full mobilization, extensive interdiction/rescue, international coordination and use of contingency funds.
widespread_public_exposure multiple_vessels_or_coastal_incidents international_response_needed
👥 Personnel 19 total
Role Count Notes
Level-2 Supervisor 2 [#6] Supervisory staff responsible for SCP-1409 oversight.
Security Officer / Guard 4 [#6] On‑site guards controlling access to storage and testing areas.
MTF Agent / Mobile Task Force (Gamma-6) 10 [#8] Dedicated interdiction/diver task force personnel.
Research Scientist 3 [#16] Audio/psychoacoustics research staff included in research salaries.
📋 Confidence Notes
Line items are well enumerated in analyst notes, allowing a detailed bottom‑up estimate for capital and recurring costs. Significant uncertainty remains in scenario probabilities and in the scale of contingency/termination costs (notes list extremely wide ranges), so confidence is medium.
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