SCP-1484 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1484
Expected annual
$3.9M
One-time setup
$5.5M
Annual recurring
$3.7M
Personnel
11
One-time capital costs are dominated by containment chamber retrofit, specialized instrumentation, and a precautionary emergency reserve (~$5.47M total one-time). Recurring annual costs (~$3.65M/yr) are driven by specialized staff wages, legal/cover-story obligations, research funding, and contingency/reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.5M
Containment Breach Reserve $2.0M
[#19] Contingency/reserve fund to be held available for large emergency responses, lockdowns, mass medical response, and remediation (kept as an on-hand reserve).
Facilities $1.4M
[#1, #2, #8, #9] Structural build/retrofit costs: dedicated vacuum-compatible inner cell ($750,000), adjacent byproduct quarantine cell ($300,000), localized shielding & structural radiation protection ($200,000), and initial power/UPS/generator circuit work ($100,000).
Equipment $1.3M
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #27] Initial hardware and installed devices: high-vacuum system ($150,000), vacuum-compatible robotic manipulators ($300,000), radiation/particle monitoring suite ($250,000), high-resolution diagnostic instruments ($400,000), DAQ hardware ($120,000), and small research benchtop instruments ($50,000). (Initial portions only; recurring maintenance/capex captured separately.)
Decommissioning Planning $600K
[#25] One-time cost estimate for decommissioning/final disposal planning and execution (range $200k–$1,000k; mid-range assumption used).
Major Cleanup Event Estimate $200K
[#20] One-time estimate for a significant decontamination/major cleanup event (range given in notes $50k–$200k; budgeted at upper range for planning).
Secure Transport Per Transfer $50K
[#18] One-time cost per domestic transfer for armored/shielded crate, specialist rigging, and escort (~$50,000/domestic; international transfers are higher and handled as project events).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.7M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#10, #11] Ongoing personnel compensation: 6full-time guards (base ~$50k each -> $300k base, ~$390k with benefits/overhead) plus containment/research team salaries (Senior Researcher $180k + 2×$120k + 2×$70k = $560k base; with benefits/overhead ≈ $730k). Aggregated recurring staff wages ≈ $1,120,000/yr.
Cover Story And Legal $700K/yr
[#21, #26] Legal retainers, misinformation/liaison operations (~$200,000/yr) plus ongoing negotiation/insurance/indemnity planning/legal work (~$500,000/yr assumption for government-level arrangements).
Research And Monitoring $490K/yr
[#16, #28, #24] Baseline experimental/test program funding (~$250,000/yr), simulation & theoretical research funding (~$225,000/yr midpoint), and long-term data archival (~$15,000/yr midpoint).
Contingency Fund Annual $400K/yr
[#30] Annual contingency set-aside (~10–20% suggested). Mid-range planning value used (~$400,000/yr).
Emergency Response $200K/yr
[#12] On-call hazardous-response readiness, specialized radiology coverage, training and ambulance readiness (~$200,000/yr).
External Beam Campaigns $100K/yr
[#17] Allocation for occasional external accelerator/beamline collaborations (range $100k–$1,000k per campaign; baseline assumes occasional modest campaigns averaged to $100k/yr).
Site Overhead $100K/yr
[#29] Pro-rated Site-17 utilities, administrative overhead, janitorial, and general facility allocation (~$100,000/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $80K/yr
[#15, #9] Routine maintenance contracts and facility-level upkeep: service contracts for pumps/detectors/manipulators/HVAC (~$60,000/yr) plus fuel & generator maintenance (~$20,000/yr).
Compute And Storage $70K/yr
[#7] Ongoing DAQ, storage, and compute costs (midpoint of $40k–$100k/yr assumed; large off-site runs are treated as project scenarios).
Personnel Monitoring $65K/yr
[#13] Dosimeters, periodic medical surveillance and cohort health monitoring (~$15,000/yr for badges + ~$50,000/yr for surveillance).
Logistics And Transport $50K/yr
[#18] Recurring logistics allocation for occasional site-to-site transfers/transport averaging one domestic transfer per year (~$50,000/yr average). Individual transfers cost more when international; those are treated as project events.
Diagnostics Maintenance $50K/yr
[#6] Consumables, calibration, and maintenance for mass spectrometers, trackers, and high-speed diagnostics (~$50,000/yr).
Routine Decontamination $50K/yr
[#20] Budgeted routine hazardous waste handling and disposal (~$50,000/yr).
Training And Drills $50K/yr
[#23] Annual containment and response drills, equipment training (~$50,000/yr).
Radiation Monitoring Maintenance $30K/yr
[#5] Calibration, replacement, and servicing for detectors and spectrometers (~$30,000/yr).
Ethics Oversight $30K/yr
[#22] Internal/external ethics reviews and audits (~$30,000/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $28K/yr
[#14, #27] Annual consumables and cleanroom supplies: O-rings, seals, gloves, filters (~$20,000/yr) plus small-equipment consumables (~$7,500/yr midpoint).
Manipulator Maintenance $25K/yr
[#4] Maintenance and spare parts for vacuum-compatible robotic manipulators (~$25,000/yr).
Vacuum System Maintenance $15K/yr
[#3] Spare parts & scheduled maintenance for roughing/turbo pumps, seals, bearings (~$15,000/yr).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.7M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents or large external campaigns; routine testing and maintenance only.
no_major_incident routine_research scheduled_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $4.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized containment/activation incident requiring expanded emergency response, targeted decontamination, and equipment replacement.
unexpected_activation equipment_failure localized_contamination
🚨 Major External Campaign $5.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$2.2M vs baseline
Planned large-scale external accelerator campaign / off-site compute run and international transfers for high-energy tests.
accelerator_campaign off-site_compute_run international_transfer
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#10] Six full-time guards to provide 24/7 armed coverage (as specified in notes).
Research Scientist / Senior Researcher 1 [#11] Senior containment lead (Level 3) / principal investigator.
Research Scientist / Particle Physicist (Postdoc-level) 2 [#11] Two particle physicists/postdocs on the containment/research team.
Technician / Lab Technician 2 [#11] Two technicians for shift coverage and equipment operation.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items have explicit analyst estimates and practical line-item detail (improving confidence). Several items use mid-range assumptions for ranges (external campaigns, decommissioning, contingency), and episodic/rare events are inherently uncertain, so overall confidence is medium.
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