SCP-1766 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-1766
Expected annual
$38.9M
One-time setup
$166.4M
Annual recurring
$37.5M
Personnel
42
Estimated one-time capital costs are dominated by ground jammer network construction, UAV development and pod integration (~$166.4M); recurring annual costs (baseline) are driven by legal/compensation reserves, operations staffing, research, and equipment operations (~$37.55M/yr). Main cost drivers are ground-network capital, contingency reserves, and annual legal/response expenditures.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $166.4M
Ground Jammer Network $80.0M
[#6] Ground-based high-power VHF jammer network across multiple sites (10–30 sites; $20M–$300M); mid-range network capital used.
Uav Dev And Procurement $36.0M
[#5] R&D (~$10M–$50M) plus initial fielding (20 UAVs ~$2M–$10M); combined development + procurement recorded as one-time capital.
Initial Contingency Fund $20.0M
[#21] Initial contingency/escalation fund (recommended $10M–$200M); seed/reserve funding recorded as one-time.
Equipment $12.0M
[#2] Airframe integration of jamming pod (retrofit) for 4 aircraft estimated $4M–$20M; equipment/core pod + integration cost recorded here.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $10.0M
[#20] Initial comprehensive research program and lab/instrument setup estimated at $2M–$50M; mid-range used.
Facilities $4.0M
[#8] Hardened Secure Operations/Command Center build-out estimated at $1M–$10M; mid-range build-out cost used.
Decommissioning Reserve $1.5M
[#25] Decommissioning/remediation reserve per network (aggregate for expected site count).
Training Setup $1.2M
[#17] Initial comprehensive training/exercise program setup $0.5M–$2M.
Detection System $1.0M
[#7] Detection, monitoring and automated alerting systems one-time development/integration $250k–$2M.
Equipment Purchase And Vehicles $500K
[#19] Initial secure vehicles/equipment purchase estimated $100k–$1M.
Regulatory One Time Filing $150K
[#24] One-time filings and studies for frequency coordination $50k–$250k.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $37.5M/yr
Cover Story And Legal $11.0M/yr
[#12, #13] Legal, settlements, victim compensation and media suppression/PR reserve. Combined baseline annual reserve chosen from reported $5M–$100M and PR $0.2M–$5M.
Contingency Reserve Contribution $5.0M/yr
[#21] Annual contribution to contingency/escalation reserve (maintaining a multi-million dollar reserve over time).
Research And Monitoring $4.5M/yr
[#14, #20] Investigations/forensics and ongoing research programs combined; investigations $0.5M–$3M/yr and research R&D ops $1M–$10M/yr.
Staff Wages $3.0M/yr
[#4] Dedicated alert posture staffing incremental overtime/backfills/allowances estimated $1M–$5M/yr.
Jamming Pod Maintenance $2.0M/yr
[#3] Jamming pod maintenance/spares for 4-aircraft fleet estimated $0.8M–$3.2M/yr; mid-range used.
Ground Jammer Ops $2.0M/yr
[#6] Operating costs for ground jammer network (power, site staff, leases) $0.5M–$5M/yr.
Medical And Sar $2.0M/yr
[#11] Medical, SAR, casualty management baseline planning reserve; single serious incident costs can be much higher.
Air Intercept Flight Hours $1.2M/yr
[#1] Dedicated interceptor flight-hours: 40hours/year @ ~$30k/hr = ~$1.2M/yr (20 activations assumed).
Facilities Maintenance $1.0M/yr
[#8] Secure Operations/Command Center operating costs (staffing, utilities, security) $0.5M–$2M/yr.
Uav Operations $1.0M/yr
[#5] UAV sortie operations, maintenance and spares estimated $1k–$5k per sortie; aggregated annual ops estimate for supplemental UAV fleet.
Field Response $1.0M/yr
[#10] Field response teams (amnestics, interviews, relocation) annual program estimate $100k–$3M/yr.
Faa Liaison $750K/yr
[#15] FAA/ATC coordination liaison office staffing and reimbursements $200k–$2M/yr.
Training And Exercises $500K/yr
[#17] Ongoing training/exercises annual costs $0.2M–$1M/yr.
Energy And Power $500K/yr
[#18] Electricity and backup power for ground jammer sites aggregated across network; airborne power included in flight-hour costs.
Community Relations $500K/yr
[#22] Community relations and rehabilitation baseline program $200k–$1M/yr.
Detection System Ops $300K/yr
[#7] Hosting, updates and analyst costs for monitoring system $100k–$500k/yr.
Cybersecurity $300K/yr
[#16] Cyber/social-media takedown and monitoring tools $100k–$1M/yr plus per-event budgets.
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
[#9] Amnestic drug acquisition and per-dose consumables; annual drug and admin costs estimated ~$115k–$315k/yr.
Logistics And Transport $200K/yr
[#19] General equipment storage/logistics and transport baseline operations $50k–$500k/yr (core logistics baseline).
Equipment Logistics Ops $200K/yr
[#19] Ongoing equipment storage, transport, and logistics operations $50k–$500k/yr.
Personnel Medical Surveillance $200K/yr
[#23] Medical surveillance and indemnities for exposed personnel $50k–$500k/yr.
Regulatory Fees $200K/yr
[#24] Annual spectrum coordination/legal fees $50k–$500k/yr.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $37.5M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, operations, training, and modest incident load without major collisions or large public exposure.
routine_activations no_major_public_exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $40.0M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
One or more medium-scale incidents (e.g., GA collisions or multiple activations) requiring additional intercepts, field responses, investigations, and modest legal/PR spikes.
single_mid-air_incident localized_media_leak multiple_scrambles
🚨 Major Collision $87.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
A major commercial-airliner collision or multi-fatality event triggering large emergency response, major legal settlements, wide media exposure and significant contingency drawdown.
commercial_airliner_collision mass_fatalities public_exposure
👥 Personnel 42 total
Role Count Notes
Pilots (Interceptor Squadron) 12 [#4] Pilots assigned to interceptor squadron on heightened standby; headcount consistent with 24/7 coverage and surge rotations.
Avionics / Groundcrew / Technicians 12 [#4] Ground maintenance and avionics staff to support rapid launches and pod maintenance; overtime/backfills included in staffing cost.
Mission Planners / Analysts 4 [#4] Mission planning, EW systems integration support and sortie coordination for interceptor teams.
Field Response Team Members 8 [#4] Field teams for amnestic administration, interviews, witness handling and relocation; staffing level supports multiple simultaneous incidents.
Operations Center Staff 6 [#4] Secure Ops/Command Center operators, watchstanders and liaison coordinators supporting 24/7 monitoring and FAA/USAF coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges, enabling midpoint estimates; however large ranges for capital projects, legal exposure and incident frequency create meaningful uncertainty. Key sensitivities are incident rate and whether expensive ground-network mitigation is chosen.
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