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SCP-1824 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-1824
Expected annual
$56.6M
One-time setup
$896.9M
Annual recurring
$24.1M
Personnel
195
Baseline program-level monitoring and data infrastructure plus staffing are ~ $24M/yr; the dominant one-time exposures are property buyouts and large temporary-housing or demolition operations which can push a single-year cost into the hundreds of millions to billions.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $896.9M
Property Buyouts $750.0M
[#20] One-time compulsory buyouts/compensation to depopulate affected dense urban areas (example km2 buyout).
Temporary Housing Purchase $80.0M
[#13] One-time purchase of trailer/mobile-home units as a buy option for large-scale temporary/permanent housing.
Insurance Reserve Fund $55.0M
[#26] One-time contingency reserve fund for lawsuits, casualty compensation, cleanup and replacement.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.0M
[#7, #22] One-time image-analysis / ML development and multidisciplinary research laboratory setup and program startup costs.
Equipment $2.2M
[#3, #10] Vehicles purchase & outfitting for 20-vehicle baseline fleet and drones/high-res cameras/LIDAR and imaging spares one-time costs.
Demolition Capability $2.0M
[#29] One-time capability procurement for demolition/abatement crews and heavy equipment (small-scale capability).
Rapid Response Kit And Training $1.0M
[#9] One-time procurement of field kits, tactical gear, signage, temporary fencing and initial team training.
Geo System Setup $500K
[#2] One-time geo-prioritization and tasking system integration and initial dataset builds.
Hazmat Procurement $200K
[#11] One-time procurement of hazmat suits, decontamination showers, HEPA units and initial hazmat setup.
Facilities $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $24.1M/yr
Staff Wages $9.3M/yr
[#1, #8, #9, #16, #7, #23] Salaries for economic-monitoring team (economists/analysts), 24/7 monitoring/watch staff, rapid-response team salaries, baseline security deployment, and supporting research operations staff.
Research And Monitoring $3.8M/yr
[#6, #7, #22, #23] Ongoing ML ops & retraining, data processing, secure storage/compute operations, research program operating costs, and specialized diagnostics program budgets.
Cross Border Coordination $3.0M/yr
[#24] Ongoing diplomatic cover, front companies, translators, and small regional offices to support tri-national operations.
Imagery Licensing $2.8M/yr
[#5] Commercial/third-party imagery and agency data licensing fees for street and aerial imagery feeds.
Facilities Maintenance $2.5M/yr
[#21] Maintenance and utilities for monitoring/operations facilities and long-term maintenance of any secured exclusion zones (per-km2 maintenance budget).
Data Security And Counterintelligence $1.2M/yr
[#28] Secure classified networks, insider vetting, counterintelligence, and leak-prevention safeguards.
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#18, #19] Baseline public relations and legal/liaison budgets for media management, cover stories, and local authority coordination.
Logistics And Transport $400K/yr
[#4] Fleet operations (fuel, maintenance, insurance, driver salaries) for routine patrols and reactive deployments.
Supplies And Consumables $250K/yr
[#14] Baseline stockpiles and consumables for shelter operations and medical triage (routine/standing supplies).
Training And Exercises $175K/yr
[#25] Regular tabletop and field exercises for evacuations, staged media blackouts, and 'explosion' protocols.
Hazmat Replacement And Training $100K/yr
[#11] Annual replacement, certification and refresher training costs for hazmat equipment and procedures.
Evacuation Transport Per Event $0/yr
[#12] Per-event charter/operation cost for large evacuations (example: $200k–400k per medium event). Tracked as per-incident cost (not included in baseline).
Temporary Housing Per Day 10K Evacuees $0/yr
[#13] Per-day rental cost for 10,000 evacuees (example $400k–2M/day). Tracked as per-incident/per-day cost.
Shelter Operations Per Day 10K $0/yr
[#14] Food/water/sanitation/medical per-day for 10,000 evacuees (example $150k–600k/day). Tracked as per-incident/per-day cost.
Psychiatric Treatment Per Cohort $0/yr
[#15] Acute inpatient and long-term care costs for affected cohorts (per-cohort, per-incident estimate; tracked in incident scenarios).
Staged Explosion Per Event $0/yr
[#17] Cost for staged gas-main-emulation events (per-event estimate $50k–500k). Tracked per incident.
Pr And Media Suppression Per Incident $0/yr
[#18] Per-incident PR/media/manipulation and footage suppression costs (example $100k–2M per incident).
Legal Liaison And Covert Payments Per Incident $0/yr
[#19] Per-event legal fees, indemnities, and covert payments to local authorities (example $100k–2M+ per event).
Economic Impact Mitigation Fund Per Year If Active $0/yr
[#27] Ongoing fund to underwrite lost tax revenue/business interruption while zones are depopulated (tracked in depopulation scenarios; very large when active).
Demolition Per Operation $0/yr
[#29] Per-operation demolition/abatement costs (small block $0.5–2M; large-scale tens to hundreds of millions).
Long Tail Social Services $0/yr
[#30] Ongoing resettlement/compensation/job-placement/mental-health programs per year (tracked post-incident; variable).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $24.1M/yr
58.0% probability / year
Normal year with steady-state monitoring, licensing, staff wages, routine maintenance and training; no major evacuations or buyouts.
no detected expansions localized detections suppressed routine operations only
🚨 Minor Incident $44.0M/yr
40.0% probability / year +$19.9M vs baseline
Localized detection limited to a neighborhood or several blocks requiring a medium-scale evacuation, temporary housing, shelter operations, and increased psychiatric and diagnostic response.
single-city-block to small-neighborhood manifestation short-term evacuation (days to weeks) moderate media exposure
🚨 Major Depopulation $1.3B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.2B vs baseline
Expansion State event affecting large, dense urban area requiring property buyouts, mass evacuation, long-term housing, demolition/cleanup, economic mitigation and extended social services.
Expansion State unchecked until large-area depopulation required multi-jurisdictional response and media exposure large-scale buyouts/demolitions and long-term care
👥 Personnel 195 total
Role Count Notes
Economist / Economic Analyst 7 [#1] 2 senior economists, 4 junior analysts, 1 operations manager for economic monitoring and alerts.
Monitoring Duty Officer / Analyst 8 [#8] 24/7 continuous monitoring/watch team (rotational staffing for operations centre).
Research Scientist 10 [#7, #22, #23] ML engineers, data scientists, neuro/psych research staff for analysis and study programs.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 100 [#16] Baseline security deployment for perimeter control and enforcement (100-person baseline).
Rapid Response Field Team 30 [#9, #3] Field personnel for containment, equipped teams (vehicles, tactical kits) for deployments.
Driver / Fleet Operator 20 [#4, #12] Drivers for patrol and evacuation transport fleets.
Engineer / Maintenance 5 [#6, #10, #29] Maintenance staff for vehicles, imaging hardware, storage/WAN and demolition support coordination.
Medical Officer 5 [#14, #15, #23] Medical and psychiatric staff for triage, inpatient care coordination, and diagnostics.
Administrative Staff / Liaison 10 [#18, #19, #24] Legal/liaison, cover-story coordination, cross-border coordination and program administration.
📋 Confidence Notes
Core operational and programmatic recurring costs (staff, licensing, storage, baseline security) are relatively well-defined; however per-incident and large-scale buyout/demolition/economic-impact estimates vary by orders of magnitude and depend on scenario choices, so large-event cost estimates and scenario probabilities are uncertain.
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