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SCP-1938 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1938
Expected annual
$475K
One-time setup
$545K
Annual recurring
$472K
Personnel
4
Upfront one-time containment and research setup is moderate (~$545k) while annual operations are dominated by personnel, security, legal/PR, and contingency (~$472k/yr). Main drivers are staff wages (tech + guards), consultant retainers, and reserves for legal/incident response.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $545K
Long Term Sociological Research $150K
[#25] Multi-year cohort/longitudinal program to track extended subjective-duration effects (one-time program funding).
Controlled Testing Program $100K
[#16] Modest controlled subject/neuroimaging research program budget (10–30 subjects; project-level one-time costs).
Initial Capital Additional $100K
[#27] Unspecified upfront capital/reserve to cover permits, project management, and non-itemized installation costs (captures summary-level uncertainty).
Equipment $62K
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #11] Tamper-resistant display/containment mount, HVAC/dehumidifier branch install, CCTV/water/chemical sensors install, UPS/generator hardware, and water-handling pumps/hose equipment.
Facilities $60K
[#1, #2, #22] Sealed Safe-class cell construction, floor reinforcement and sump basin, and installation of a dedicated decontamination sink (plumbing/structural work).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $36K
[#12, #17] Initial analytical characterization (sequencing, mass spec, specialist fees) and secure data/logging infrastructure setup.
Disposal Protocol $12K
[#26] One-time costs for safe dismantling/neutralization protocols, hazardous handling, and suppression measures if neutralization chosen.
Incident Response Setup $10K
[#21] One-time setup for incident response planning, tools, and initial drills (tabletops/physical setup).
Sop Development $8K
[#9] One-time SOP writing and initial staff training to prevent introduction of aquatic species and enforce decontamination/tool rules.
Transportation And Installation $5K
[#23] Heavy-lift transport, craning and specialized handlers for initial acquisition/installation if movement is required.
Initial Tooling And Ppe $1K
[#10] Initial dedicated nets, buckets, scoops, marked tooling and disposable PPE kit.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $472K/yr
Staff Wages $245K/yr
[#7, #8] 1 full-time containment/monitoring technician (~$80k/yr) plus baseline security staffing (3 guards ≈ $165k/yr).
Contingency Reserve $62K/yr
[#20] Insurance/reserve fund (15% of operational budget as a midpoint of recommended 10–20%).
Cover Story And Legal $60K/yr
[#18, #24] Legal retainer and PR/cover-story/misinformation mitigation budgeting combined.
Medical Monitoring And Care $40K/yr
[#15] Annual allocation for acute evaluations, follow-up therapy, and medical/psych monitoring for exposed users.
Research And Monitoring $34K/yr
[#5, #13, #14, #17, #21] Ongoing sensor/CCTV storage/maintenance, periodic bio-surveillance/sample analysis, consultant retainers (marine biologist), recurring data storage/IT support, and recurring drills/testing costs.
Facilities Maintenance $28K/yr
[#4, #6, #19, #22] HVAC/dehumidifier energy and small maintenance, backup power fuel/upkeep, administrative facility allocation/utilities, and maintenance of decon sink.
Training And Sop Refresher $2K/yr
[#9] Ongoing refresher training to enforce SOPs and decontamination/tool policies.
Logistics And Transport $1K/yr
[#11] Annualized emergency drain/disposal and small logistics for water handling events.
Supplies And Consumables $500/yr
[#10] Replacement consumables for dedicated tooling and single-use PPE.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $472K/yr
93.5% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine monitoring, training, and no contamination or public incidents.
no contamination events no public exposure routine operations
🚨 Minor Incident $512K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$40K vs baseline
Accidental introduction of foreign aquatic life leading to conversion to SCP-1938-2, requiring containment reset (drain/refill), limited medical follow-ups, sequencing and PR/legal response.
unauthorized organism introduced single drain/reset event small number of exposed users
🚨 Major Incident $622K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Larger containment/operational failure or multiple contamination/exposure events requiring extended crisis response, equipment replacement, broad medical/psych support, and intensive PR/legal action.
multiple contamination events extended multi-user exposures replacement of equipment
🚨 Political Exposure $546K/yr
0.5% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
External witness or media/legal exposure requiring aggressive cover-story operations, legal settlements, and long-term mitigation.
external witness/public leak inspection or legal action media attention
👥 Personnel 4 total
Role Count Notes
Containment Technician / Researcher 1 [#7] Full-time skilled technician responsible for daily checks, sensor reads, access control, and sample logging.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#8] Baseline continuous security coverage (3 guards, single coverage per shift) included in staffing costs.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are mid-range selections from analyst ranges and incorporate many uncertain variables (incident frequency, legal/PR posture, and research scale). Physical containment and staff costs are better defined; research/project and legal contingencies carry greater uncertainty.
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