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SCP-1986 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1986
Expected annual
$2.2M
One-time setup
$1.7M
Annual recurring
$2.2M
Personnel
17
Initial capital expenditures are roughly $1.72M driven by facility fit-out, sensors, robotic probes and lab/digitization equipment; ongoing annual operations are roughly $2.19M/yr driven by covert security staffing, research/staffing (linguists/conservators), administrative overhead, and contingency.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.7M
Equipment $945K
[#3, #7, #8, #9, #10, #15, #17, #22, #24] Non-lethal/security hardware, UPS/generator, sensor/monitoring hardware, telecom install, CCTV hardware, robotic probes, expedition outfitting, transport vehicle purchase, initial IT/security hardware.
Facilities $425K
[#4, #5, #6, #23] Covert access-denial fit-out, structural assessment/reinforcement, HVAC/install and vault fit-out initial costs.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $225K
[#11, #12] Archive/conservation lab fit-out, digitization scanners and initial on-prem server purchase for imaging and backup.
Expedition Comm Relay Equip $50K
[#16] One-time purchase of tether/relay equipment for a targeted short-range expedition.
Employee Secrecy Signing Bonus $40K
[#21] Up-front secrecy/retention payments for facility employees required to sign NDAs and accept restricted duties.
Legal Negotiation One Time $15K
[#19] One-time negotiation/legal contracting costs for municipal agreements.
Training And Certification $12K
[#2] Initial staff certification and cover-story role-play training (one-time).
Initial Pr Campaign $10K
[#20] Initial cover-story / public-relations campaign to establish plausible deniability.
Large Scale Mapping Commitment $0
[#28] Advisory: large-scale/full mapping digitization is acknowledged as effectively unbounded; no quantified one-time cost included unless leadership commits to that path.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.2M/yr
Research And Monitoring $690K/yr
[#8, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #18] Sensor maintenance/calibration, video review/operator wages, conservator staffing, compute resources for imaging/OCR, linguists/research staff, periodic geophysical surveys, probe maintenance, expedition support, and sample-based scientific analyses (radiocarbon, ink, paleography).
Staff Wages $624K/yr
[#1] Covert security staff salaries & benefits (6 covert guards, 2 supervisors, 1 administrative/HR) including payroll taxes and benefits (30%).
Contingency Reserve $285K/yr
[#27] Contingency reserve (15% of baseline annual operating budget) for rapid escalation, emergency repairs, additional staffing, or unexpected legal/PR costs.
Administrative Overhead $200K/yr
[#30] Program director, finance, compliance and schedulers (1–2 FTE equivalents plus program overhead).
Cover Story And Legal $155K/yr
[#19, #20, #21, #25, #29] Annual legal retainer and insurance, ongoing cover-story/PR budgets, hazard/retention pay for complicit staff, museum/cover exhibit costs, and coordination MOUs with local agencies.
Logistics And Transport $70K/yr
[#16, #17, #22] Vehicle operating costs, tether/spool logistics for additional expeditions, standby medevac/transport contracts and packaging/chain-of-custody logistics.
It Security And Incident Response $50K/yr
[#24] Ongoing cybersecurity/SOC monitoring, incident response retainer and secure IT operations.
Supplies And Consumables $38K/yr
[#3, #11, #26] Non-lethal equipment replacements/consumables, conservation supplies and handling consumables for collection processing.
Archival Storage Rental $25K/yr
[#23] Climate-controlled archival storage rental / off-site redundancy maintenance.
Facilities Maintenance $14K/yr
[#4, #5, #6, #23] Ongoing upkeep of covert fit-out, targeted structural inspections/repairs, and HVAC minor maintenance.
Training And Drills $10K/yr
[#2] Ongoing refresher training in non-lethal force, de-escalation, first aid and cover-story role-play drills.
Video Storage And Backup $6K/yr
[#10] CCTV/NVR storage costs and off-site encrypted backups for chain-of-custody retention.
Telecom Circuits $3K/yr
[#9] Recurring circuits, fiber/circuit maintenance and ISP redundancy for high-bandwidth imaging and comms.
Cloud Storage $2K/yr
[#12] Cloud storage for digitized materials and off-site backups (scaled to a sample-based scanning plan).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.2M/yr
94.5% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with scheduled research, routine maintenance, and no major incidents.
routine_operations scheduled_surveys no_unauthorized_access
🚨 Minor Incident $2.3M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$115K vs baseline
Localized incident requiring repairs, increased legal/PR activity, and limited temporary staffing increases.
unauthorized_access_attempt localized_equipment_damage small_public_exposure_event
🚨 Major Breach $3.7M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Significant breach/exposure or major equipment loss (e.g., large-scale contamination, public exposure, or loss of robotic assets) requiring emergency response, replacements, legal defense and extended PR.
public_exposure structural_failure loss_of_primary_probe_or_large_scale_contamination
👥 Personnel 17 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / Covert Guard 6 [#1] Six FTE covert guards (three shifts) posing as library staff; salaries included in staff_wages.
Security Supervisor 2 [#1] Two supervisory FTEs overseeing covert security operations; salaries included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist / Linguist 4 [#13] Four research/linguist FTEs performing OCR/translation/model training and human review; salaries included in research_and_monitoring.
Conservator / Archivist 2 [#11] Two conservator/archivist FTEs for handling recovered volumes; salaries included in research_and_monitoring and supplies.
IT / Cybersecurity 1 [#24] One IT/cybersecurity specialist (or equivalent retainer) supporting secure data, servers and incident response; costs in it_security_and_incident_response.
Program Director / Executive Staff 1 [#30] Program director (budgeting/oversight); costs included in administrative_overhead.
Administrative Staff (finance/compliance/schedulers) 1 [#30, #1] One administrative FTE covering HR coordination, scheduling and compliance; portion of administrative_overhead.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based directly on analyst-provided ranges for each line item and a conservative staffing model; uncertainty remains due to the tunnel's unknown full extent (which could force extremely large-scale expenditures) and variability in contract/survey costs, so confidence is medium.
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