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SCP-1988 Euclid ? low confidence
SCP-1988
Expected annual
$29.4M
One-time setup
$81.9M
Annual recurring
$28.9M
Personnel
227
Estimated one-time setup costs are large (~$82M) driven by property acquisition, demolition/abatement, and redevelopment for an illustrative 100-house program; recurring annual costs (~$25.3M/year) are driven by wages, market-influence campaigns, security, and ongoing monitoring and legal/PR expenses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $81.9M
Facilities $20.0M
[#6, #27] Redevelopment/reconstruction to ensure post-1971 structures; estimated for program-scale redevelopment of affected lots.
Property Acquisition Or Build $10.0M
[#1, #27] One-time purchases/subsidies for replacement housing across an illustrative 100-house scale (mix of purchase/build subsidies).
Demolition And Decontamination $10.0M
[#4, #14, #27] Asbestos/lead abatement and biohazard demolition costs aggregated across program scale; includes controlled demolition and containment prep.
Per Property Legal Actions $10.0M
[#16] One-time legal actions/per-case costs (eminent domain, settlements, per-property legal proceedings) aggregated across program scale.
Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#24] Contingency reserve for outbreak expansion/surge operations (recommendation: 25–100% of baseline operating budget; set here as a program reserve).
Specialized Demolition Contractors $5.0M
[#14] Premium contractor mobilization and per-property premium rates for biosecure demolition not provided by standard contractors.
Insurance Litigation Reserve $5.0M
[#18] One-time reserve for large litigation settlements or indemnity reserves for program scale.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.0M
[#13] BSL-2/3 lab fit-out, sequencers, microscopes, and custom testing rigs for initial research program.
Biohazard Waste Disposal $2.0M
[#5] Hazardous organic/structural waste disposal, incineration/special landfill manifests for demolished properties.
Opportunity Costs One Time $2.0M
[#26] One-time policy/legal mitigation and immediate fiscal remediation to address market-distortion effects.
Equipment $1.8M
[#11, #12, #20] Field equipment, sensor hardware deployment components, and specialized transport vehicle hardware (sensors, sampling rigs, van outfitting).
Environmental Remediation Reserve $1.0M
[#23] One-time reserve for potential neighborhood-scale environmental remediation (soil/stormwater remediation) if needed.
Hotline Initial Setup $600K
[#9] Initial ad campaign and call-center infrastructure/setup across three cities (initial buys, logging/triage systems).
Training Program Setup $200K
[#19] Initial training and PPE provisioning program setup for demolition crews, field teams, and hotline staff.
Initial It Build $200K
[#21] Initial case-management/database build, secure servers and backups for tracking properties, sensor feeds, and hotline reports.
Front Company Setup $100K
[#7] One-time setup costs for embedded-agent front companies in target cities.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $28.9M/yr
Staff Wages $10.5M/yr
[#7, #9, #12, #13, #15] Salaries+overhead for embedded agents, hotline agents, field investigation teams, research staff, and security guard payroll aggregated (security payroll represents the largest wage component).
Cover Story And Legal $7.9M/yr
[#8, #16, #17] Market-influence campaigns (~$2M/city), legal retainer and municipal coordination, and PR/community outreach across three cities aggregated.
Housing Lease Subsidies $2.4M/yr
[#1] Recurring lease/subsidy option: estimated $2k/month per relocated household averaged across program scale (alternate to purchase).
Community Compensation $2.0M/yr
[#22] Moving bonuses, counseling, employment assistance and non-monetary support per relocated household aggregated across program-year relocations.
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#13] Ongoing research consumables, sequencing runs, histology supplies, modeling and analyst support (excludes researcher salaries which are in staff_wages).
Opportunity Costs Policy Mitigation $1.0M/yr
[#26] Annual policy/legal mitigation budget to address municipal tax-base impacts, market-distortions, and associated political/legal responses.
Moving And Temporary Accommodation $900K/yr
[#2] Per-relocation moving costs and 1–3 months temporary accommodation aggregated across relocations in a year.
Insurance Premiums $700K/yr
[#18] Annual insurance premiums for staff/contractors and operational liability; separate litigation reserves are one-time above.
Hotline Operation $400K/yr
[#9] Ongoing ad buys, call-center operations, telecom/IT costs and 24/7 staffing support (staff wages included in staff_wages).
Appliance Vouchers And Incentives $300K/yr
[#3] Vouchers for energy-efficient appliances per relocated household aggregated for program-year relocations.
Satellite Subscription $300K/yr
[#10] Commercial satellite CO2 product subscriptions and analyst support for city/neighborhood monitoring.
Sensor Maintenance $300K/yr
[#11] Annual maintenance, calibration and replacement for fixed CO2/air-quality sensor networks across target cities.
Long Term Monitoring $300K/yr
[#25] Periodic re-surveys, sensor upkeep, and scheduled inspections of redeveloped properties over the long term.
Facilities Maintenance $200K/yr
[#25] Maintenance/upkeep for redeveloped properties and site infrastructure; periodic inspections and small capital repairs.
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
[#12, #19] Sampling kits, expendables for field teams, PPE replacement beyond training setup.
Environmental Monitoring $200K/yr
[#23] Ongoing neighborhood-level environmental monitoring and mitigation for secondary ecological effects.
Data Hosting And Cybersecurity $150K/yr
[#21] Hosting, backups, analysts, and cybersecurity operations for case management and surveillance storage.
Logistics And Transport $100K/yr
[#20] Vehicle maintenance, fuel, and lease costs for vans and mobile containment units.
Ppe Replacement And Training Refreshers $50K/yr
[#19] Ongoing PPE replacement and refresher training costs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $28.9M/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with ongoing monitoring, staffing, and routine relocations at program scale.
routine monitoring scheduled relocations no major outbreak expansion
🚨 Minor Incident $30.8M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.9M vs baseline
Localized surge: ~10 additional infected houses require rapid relocation, demolition, disposal and short redevelopment steps.
cluster of new infections (10 houses) localized demolition and disposal needs
🚨 Major Outbreak 100 House $67.5M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$38.6M vs baseline
High-escalation year requiring processing of ~100 infected houses (illustrative first-year surge), triggering large acquisition/demolition/redevelopment and surge staffing/consultant costs.
widespread propagation to dozens/hundreds of houses large-scale demolition/redevelopment and litigation
👥 Personnel 227 total
Role Count Notes
Embedded Agent (Real-Estate Operative) 3 [#7] Agents embedded in real-estate firms in Chicago, Dover, and Portland to influence markets; salary+overhead included in staff_wages.
Field Investigation Team (multi-disciplinary) 9 [#12] Structural engineers, environmental scientists, epidemiologists, containment technicians; staffing included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist 6 [#13] Lab research staff working on sequencing, histology, growth assays; salaries included in staff_wages.
Hotline Operator / Call Center Agent 9 [#9] 3 agents per city (24/7 coverage) as noted; salaries included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / Guard 200 [#15] Rotational guards for active properties; estimate based on 2 guards per active site across illustrative program scale; payroll included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are high-uncertainty (vendor rates, legal outcomes, scale of spread). Per-property costs vary widely; program cost scales nonlinearly with number of infected houses. Estimates use a program-scale (illustrative 100-house/year) aggregation and mid-range assumptions from analyst notes, so uncertainty remains high.
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