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SCP-1994 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-1994
Expected annual
$11.4M
One-time setup
$15.0M
Annual recurring
$10.9M
Personnel
51
Initial capital investment is dominated by secure containment construction and specialized equipment (lockers, humanoid vault, air-scrubbers, monitoring network and MTF outfitting) leading to a one-time cost of roughly $15M, while annual operating costs (staff, monitoring, MTF operations, logistics, and foreign operations) are approximately $11M per year.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $15.0M
Equipment $5.7M
[#3, #5, #7, #12, #13, #14, #16, #17, #21, #26] Air‑scrubbers for containment spaces (~$700k total), initial hazmat kits for staff (~$75k), life‑support hardware (~$600k), surveillance install (~$250k), Moscow monitoring deployment (~$1.2M), MTF initial equipment & training (~$1.0M), field containment units (~$600k), initial active-search mobilization (~$1.0M), secure comms setup (~$187,500), and archival/freezer equipment (~$125k).
Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#25] One-time contingency/reserve fund recommended for large-scale outbreak activation (lower-bound reserve chosen).
Facilities $4.3M
[#1, #2, #6, #10] Includes outfitting multiple maximum-security lockers (~$250k each × 6), one high-security humanoid vault (~$2.5M), decon/autoclave installation (~$125k), and generator/UPS installation (~$150k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[#19] Chosen operational approach uses external BSL-4 access (recurring fees) rather than constructing an on-site BSL-4; no one-time lab construction included here.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.9M/yr
Staff Wages $4.2M/yr
[#8, #9, #15] Medical/research staff salaries (~$550k/yr), security staffing (~$1.1M/yr), and MTF ongoing operational/salary budget (~$2.5M/yr).
Research And Monitoring $1.9M/yr
[#12, #13, #19] Recurring monitoring/IT and analyst time (~$125k), Moscow monitoring network operations & maintenance (~$800k), and external BSL-4 laboratory access / assay fees (~$1.0M/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $1.9M/yr
[#18, #22] Secure foreign operations budget (safe houses, local contractors, cover) (~$1.5M/yr) and containment-breach insurance / PR / legal reserve (~$400k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $1.4M/yr
[#17, #27] Ongoing active search/recovery operations (~$1.2M/yr) and transportation/customs facilitation budget (~$150k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $880K/yr
[#4, #5, #7, #20] Filter/media replacements for scrubbers (~$420k total), hazmat program annual refresh (~$100k), life‑support consumables/maintenance (~$275k), and contaminated material handling/disposal (~$85k).
Facilities Maintenance $362K/yr
[#6, #10, #16, #11, #26] Hazardous waste contractor (~$35k), generator/UPS fuel & maintenance (~$40k), field unit maintenance (~$50k), continuous energy/HVAC load (~$75k), and archival power & monitoring (~$12.5k), plus routine facility upkeep (~$150k).
Translation And Cultural Advisers $150K/yr
[#24] Translation, cultural and legal advisers for Russian operations (~$150k/yr).
Training And Simulation $125K/yr
[#23] Regular drills, external instructors and consumables (~$125k/yr).
Secure Communications $100K/yr
[#21] Annual secure comms / IT security operations and audits (~$100k/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.9M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine monitoring, containment maintenance, and scheduled deployments only.
no major outbreak routine MTF activity scheduled maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $11.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Limited containment breach or localized outbreak requiring additional deployments, emergency consumables, overtime, and short-term surge logistics.
localized breach single-site outbreak MTF emergency deployment
🚨 Major Outbreak $30.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Multi-site outbreak or escalation requiring full contingency activation, mass deployments in Russia, large-scale public health interventions, and use of reserve funds.
multi-site outbreak widespread airborne contamination international exposure
👥 Personnel 51 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Medical Staff 5 [#7, #8] Physicians, nurses, biomedical engineers and containment researchers (3–6 FTE estimated; 5 chosen).
Security Officer / Site Security 16 [#9] Dedicated guards for containment areas (12–20 guard complement; 16 chosen).
MTF Agent / Tau-13 30 [#14, #15] Mobile Task Force operational roster (20–40 personnel; 30 chosen).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, allowing mid-range point estimates, but significant uncertainties remain: unknown exact counts of contained units, outbreak frequency, and whether a dedicated BSL-4 will be constructed. Ranges and operational assumptions (number of lockers, MTF tempo, scale of Moscow monitoring) drive residual uncertainty.
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