SCP-2191 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2191
Expected annual
$6.8M
One-time setup
$234.2M
Annual recurring
$6.2M
Personnel
34
One-time capital expenditures are dominated by optional large-scale contingency and the potential construction of a local BSL-4 (total one-time ~234M). Recurring annual baseline operations (personnel, remote sensing, drones, legal/cover operations, research) are ~6.2M/yr; major breaches could drive multi-million to multi‑million+ responses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $234.2M
Local Bsl4 Build $175.0M
[#7] Optional one-time capital to construct a local BSL-4 on-site (100M–250M range). Included as an explicit build-option (not assumed in baseline operations).
Large Infrastructure Contingency $50.0M
[#30] Reserve / planning estimate for large-scale excavation/sealing/containment or full-intervention infrastructure (scalable $10M–$200M).
Emergency Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#19] Reserve fund for rapid large-scale breach response, cordons, evacuation, cleanup, plausible deniability operations.
Equipment $2.7M
[#5, #8, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #23, #27] Major hardware procurement: drones, sensor network installation, communications uplink/servers, power infrastructure hardware (solar/generator/batteries), vehicle fleet purchase (4x4/ATVs/armored vehicle), initial PPE/equipment, robotic sample systems, cryostorage freezers, LiDAR/mapping gear, and initial IT/hardening.
Facilities $650K
[#1] Field base / covert ranger station construction and fit-out (secure low-profile compound, small lab space, storage, vault, drone launch).
Land Access And Permits Initial $150K
[#2] Initial payments / legal fees and agreements with local authorities to allow ranger cover and restricted access.
Artifact Conservation Initial $150K
[#17] Initial archaeological conservation / secure archival vault setup for recovered artifacts.
Longterm Monitoring Initial $150K
[#25] Initial deployment of long-term atmospheric/geophysical sensors and any required upfront subscriptions/equipment.
Legal Cover Initial $125K
[#18] Initial establishment of legal/intelligence/cover-up capability (counsel, initial fabrication capacity).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $100K
[#1, #24] On-site field lab fit-out (microscopes, field sequencer, necropsy/analysis basics) for remote-only preliminary analyses prior to BSL-4 handling.
Training Initial $100K
[#22] Initial qualification training costs (biocontainment basics, drone ops, firearms, cover-role qualification).
Cover Infrastructure Initial $40K
[#3] Initial covert cover infrastructure (IDs, uniforms, vehicle liveries, PR setup, false records).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.2M/yr
Staff Wages $3.0M/yr
[#4, #5, #6] Salaries, benefits, housing stipends for local field operatives (18), armed security response team (approx. 10), and specialist scientific staff (approx. 6).
Research And Monitoring $948K/yr
[#9, #23, #24, #25] Ongoing drone operations and piloting, periodic LiDAR/geophysical updates, research consumables/analyses, and long-term monitoring subscriptions/station upkeep.
Cover Story And Legal $820K/yr
[#18, #28, #20] Ongoing legal counsel, media/PR and misinformation campaigns, payments/arrangements with locals, and mortuary/forensic clean-up tied to cover operations.
Supplies And Consumables $358K/yr
[#9, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16] Consumables and recurring hardware upkeep: drone spares/batteries, sensor maintenance, satellite/cloud bandwidth, generator fuel & power maintenance, vehicle maintenance/fuel, PPE consumables, robotic/sterile container consumables, cryostorage power/maintenance.
Personnel Turnover $250K/yr
[#29] Relocation, housing subsidies, exit payments, and other turnover/hush payments.
Bsl4 External Fees $200K/yr
[#7] Recurring fees for transporting and processing samples at an external secure BSL-4 facility (baseline option).
Logistics And Transport $150K/yr
[#13, #26] Secure courier logistics, clandestine transport, special freight, and indemnity/charter fees for hazardous sample movement and rapid deployments.
Medical Surveillance $125K/yr
[#21] Staff medical screening, vaccinations, emergency evacuation insurance, and potential long-term care provisioning.
Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr
[#1, #12] Ongoing site maintenance, base upkeep, and minor infrastructure repairs; includes some generator upkeep/fuel logistics not itemized elsewhere.
Training And Exercises $100K/yr
[#22] Annual refresher training, simulated breach drills, and joint exercises.
It Security $62K/yr
[#27] Ongoing IT security, incident response, off-site backups, and data redundancy costs.
Land Access And Permits $50K/yr
[#2] Annual permit renewals, liaison fees, and occasional expedited cooperation payments to local government.
Local Bsl4 Operations $0/yr
[#7] If local BSL-4 is constructed, operations would be large ($5M–$20M/yr); set to 0 here because baseline assumes external BSL-4 usage.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.2M/yr
91.0% probability / year
Normal year: steady-state remote surveillance, routine research, cover maintenance, and no major incidents or infrastructure-scale interventions.
no_major_incident routine_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $7.0M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline
Localized breach or civilian discovery requiring emergency response, limited public mitigation, surge staffing, mortuary handling, and increased legal/cover actions.
small_public_breach localized_mass_casualty evidence_discovery
🚨 Major Breach $56.2M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Large public exposure or mass-casualty event requiring wide-area cordons, major containment infrastructure, large contingency spending, potential construction or major scale-up of facilities (including possible local BSL-4 build), and intensive legal/cover operations.
widespread_public_exposure mass_casualty_event political_exposure
👥 Personnel 34 total
Role Count Notes
Field Operative / Ranger 18 [#4] 24/7 field coverage in three shifts; patrol, drone ops, medics, logistics.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 [#5] Armed response unit (8–12 specialists), authorized for lethal force during breaches; includes training.
Research Scientist 6 [#6] Specialist scientific staff (biologists, parasitologists, archaeologists) with partial off-site duties and periodic deployments.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst item ranges and midpoints; many line items (e.g., BSL-4 build, large contingency interventions) are optional and carry high uncertainty. Operational recurring costs are better defined, but contingency/scale-up scenarios introduce low confidence in upper-tail one-time estimates.
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