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SCP-2281 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2281
Expected annual
$2.2M
One-time setup
$29.5M
Annual recurring
$2.2M
Personnel
22
One-time capital costs are dominated by highway rerouting and construction of a warehouse perimeter (tens of millions). Recurring annual costs are primarily personnel, utilities, maintenance and training (~$2.2M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $29.5M
Facilities $25.7M
[#1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #18] New 10 km reroute, engineered landslide/road severance, land acquisition, warehouse complex construction, perimeter fencing/physical barriers, and initial signage/barriers.
Contingency Capital $2.7M
[#24] Capital contingency equal to 10% of one-time capital costs per analyst guidance.
Equipment $545K
[#6, #16, #17, #19, #20] CCTV/sensors install, secure communications/IT hardware, vehicle fleet purchase, storage racks/secure rooms, medical/safety equipment (one-time purchases).
Coverup Legal One Time $300K
[#11] Initial legal/approval work, retroactive legitimization and one-off payouts to secure reroute approvals.
Community Mitigation $200K
[#12] Compensation/staged payments to local businesses/stakeholders to reduce scrutiny following reroute.
Geotech Initial Study $60K
[#14] Initial detailed geotechnical/environmental study.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.2M/yr
Staff Wages $1.3M/yr
[#7, #8] 24/7 on-site security staffing (18 guards with benefits) plus site management/front-company employees (salaries + benefits).
Cover Story And Legal $210K/yr
[#10, #11] Property taxes, permits, local fees and ongoing legal/liaison retainer to maintain front company legitimacy.
Contingency Operational $200K/yr
[#24] Operational contingency equal to 10% of annual operating budget per analyst guidance.
Annual Training Event $125K/yr
[#13] Annual MTF training logistics: transport, accommodations, consumables, overtime and temporary site support.
Facilities Maintenance $84K/yr
[#5, #9, #21] Perimeter/fence maintenance, utilities and building O&M (electricity/HVAC/water/janitorial), and minor road/vegetation maintenance.
Incident Response Fund $75K/yr
[#15] Liquid contingency for trespasser extraction, accident cleanup, evidence removal and emergency remediation.
Administrative Overhead $50K/yr
[#25] Accounting, payroll, bookkeeping, audits and administrative cover for the front company.
Logistics And Transport $40K/yr
[#17] Vehicle operations: fuel, maintenance and insurance for patrol/maintenance fleet.
Research And Monitoring $37K/yr
[#14, #22] Ongoing geotechnical/environmental monitoring and small audit/research budget for incident analysis.
Training And Personnel Certifications $30K/yr
[#23] Recurring training for guards and staff certifications (first aid, hazardous response, MTF briefings).
Surveillance And Security Systems Maintenance $25K/yr
[#6] Maintenance, cloud storage and periodic upgrades for CCTV, motion/seismic sensors and alarm systems.
It Operations $20K/yr
[#16] Ongoing IT/secure communications operations, licensing and cybersecurity.
Supplies And Consumables $6K/yr
[#18, #20] Signage replacement and medical/PPE replenishment consumables.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.2M/yr
91.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with standard operations and no major incidents.
routine_operations annual_training
🚨 Minor Incident $2.2M/yr
7.0% probability / year +$30K vs baseline
Localized breach or accident requiring incident response, cleanup, evidence removal and small legal work.
trespass vehicle_breach minor_accident
🚨 Major Breach $2.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant breach or public exposure requiring large-scale remediation, legal defense, PR and potential repairs/reconstruction.
major_accident_with_media large_scale_discovery legal_action
👥 Personnel 22 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 18 [#7] 18 guards covering 3 shifts (includes vacancies/leave); wages included in staff_wages.
Site Manager / Executive Staff 1 [#8] On-site manager to run front company and containment sector.
Administrative Staff 2 [#8] Administrative assistant and front-company personnel handling scheduling, invoices and local interactions.
Maintenance / Engineer 1 [#8, #17] Maintenance technician for building systems and fleet upkeep.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed categories and ranges, but major uncertainties remain (highly variable highway reroute costs, local land values, and frequency/severity of incidents); estimates use mid-range choices and a contingency reserve to reflect uncertainty.
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