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SCP-2312 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2312
Expected annual
$15.0M
One-time setup
$9.5M
Annual recurring
$13.9M
Personnel
35
One-time setup and capital (facility buildout, vehicles, sensors, and a large contingency reserve) are substantial (~$9.54M). Recurring annual costs are dominated by MTF wages, an ongoing scientific response program, emergency/compensation funds and local liaison payments, totaling roughly $13.88M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $9.5M
Contingency Reserve $6.0M
[#32] Initial catastrophic-event reserve to cover major cyclones/large reconstruction/long-term economic impacts.
Equipment $1.7M
[#7, #9, #11, #30] Vehicle fleet purchase (4x4s/armored/utility), tactical drones and ISR systems, remote sensor nodes, and containment-related equipment/PPE.
Facilities $1.4M
[#1, #3, #25] Construction/lease of hardened forward base, perimeter cordon buildout (fencing/checkpoints/signage), and secure evidence/archive vaults (includes comms hardware and initial furnishings).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#13] Mobile field laboratory and evidence processing equipment for inscription documentation and basic assays.
Front Company Setup $200K
[#22] One-time setup costs for covert front companies, shell entities and documentation for cover.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $13.9M/yr
Staff Wages $3.6M/yr
[#5, #15, #33] Salaries/benefits/hazard pay for MTF Tau-20 contingent (20–40 personnel assumed), archaeology/epigraphy/linguistic specialists (2–4), and senior program management/auditing staff.
Research And Monitoring $3.1M/yr
[#10, #12, #16, #29] ISR operations staffing/subscriptions/maintenance, remote sensor maintenance and comms fees, funded scientific research program into Eris events, and outsourced forensic/assay subcontracting.
Emergency Response Fund $3.0M/yr
[#17] Annual fund to reimburse/repair civil damages from 2312-Eris Events (event-driven compensation and covert repairs).
Local Security Contractor Payments $1.0M/yr
[#6] Regular payments/liaison to TRNC forces and local security contractors to secure cooperation and maintain political cover.
Cover Story And Legal $825K/yr
[#19, #21, #23] Baseline PR/cover retainers and covert publicity operations, legal/diplomatic/liaison costs, and front-company annual maintenance (filing fees, fake payroll).
Environmental Cleanup And Wildlife Disposal $500K/yr
[#18] Contracts for carcass removal, biohazard disposal, disinfection and environmental remediation for wildlife-mortality events (budgeted as an annual contingency).
Perimeter Cordon Staffing $425K/yr
[#4] Recurring costs to staff and maintain perimeter checkpoints and props to sustain the training-area cover story.
Mass Casualty Public Health Readiness $400K/yr
[#24] Hospital surge support, stockpiles, veterinary surge capacity and public-health readiness for human/veterinary injury or disease scares.
Supplies And Consumables $250K/yr
[#14, #31] Laboratory consumables/reagents, sample storage/cold chain, and field consumables (photogrammetry supplies, casting materials, batteries, evidence bags).
Logistics And Transport $225K/yr
[#8] Vehicle fleet operating costs: fuel, maintenance, insurance, replacement parts and scheduled vehicle replacements.
Mass Mailing Event Cost $150K/yr
[#20] Occasional mass-mailing/prop fabrication (e.g., mailing brochures to ~300k recipients); baseline per-year budgeting assuming ~1 event/year on average.
Misc Local Payments $125K/yr
[#34] Small, ad-hoc hush funds and payments to local leaders, informants and affected citizens to preserve cooperation.
Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr
[#2] Forward base annual operating costs: utilities, custodial, facility maintenance, local lease/taxes/permits.
Translation And Publication Suppression $100K/yr
[#27] Monitoring and takedown operations for leaks in social/local media, translation suppression and rapid response.
Psychological Support $100K/yr
[#28] Counseling, debriefs and rotation costs for personnel exposed to anomalous incidents.
Archive Maintenance $50K/yr
[#26] Ongoing secure data storage, backups, cryptographic key management and physical archive maintenance.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $13.9M/yr
60.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine monthly SCP-2312 manifestations producing low-to-moderate incidents handled within standing budgets.
routine_monthly_manifests no_large_eris_event standard_surveillance_and_response
🚨 Minor Incident $14.9M/yr
30.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
One or more moderate 2312-Eris Events that require significant cleanup, PR, and targeted compensation beyond normal operations (e.g., large bird die-off, localized property damage, mass-mailing PR response).
avian_mass_mortality localized_cyclone_or_flood major_publicity_event
🚨 Major Event $21.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Large-scale 2312-Eris Event (severe cyclone, widespread infrastructure damage, large-scale casualties or major political/diplomatic fallout) requiring large emergency spending and large-scale reconstruction/covert payments.
catastrophic_cyclone widespread_infrastructure_damage major_mass_casualty_event
👥 Personnel 35 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 30 [#5] Standing MTF Tau-20 contingent (assumed midpoint of 20–40 personnel) including medics, EOD, translators and support.
Research Scientist 3 [#15] Archaeology/epigraphy and linguistic specialists (assumed midpoint of 2–4 consultants/staff).
Site Director / Executive Staff 2 [#33] Senior program managers and auditing/oversight staff included in recurring management costs.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges allowing midpoint-based estimates, but SCP-2312's anomalous, territorial and political dependencies introduce substantial uncertainty in event frequency, the scale of required covert payments, and sovereign negotiations; contingency needs are especially uncertain.
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