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SCP-2319 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2319
Expected annual
$34.6M
One-time setup
$375.0M
Annual recurring
$29.2M
Personnel
47
Estimated one-time capital costs are approximately $375M driven by options for owned vessels, submersibles, and possible cabled observatories; ongoing annual operations are ~ $29.25M/yr driven by patrol charters, vessel operations, specialized staff, and monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $375.0M
Facilities $100.0M
[#8] One-time capital for cabled observatory and major shore/structural works (cable laying, trenching, shore stations).
Opv Purchase $100.0M
[#1] Capital purchase option for a mid-size offshore patrol vessel / dedicated OPV.
Research Vessel Purchase $50.0M
[#9] Purchase option for dedicated research vessel and onboard labs.
Manned Submersible Purchase $45.0M
[#6] Acquisition of a human-occupied vehicle (HOV) if required for certain operations.
Mp Aircraft Purchase $40.0M
[#2] Purchase of dedicated maritime patrol / ISR aircraft (MPA) or equivalent manned platform.
Emergency Reserve Fund $20.0M
[#19] Contingency reserve fund available for rapid emergency response, cleanup, or crisis operations.
Rovs Auvs Purchase $8.0M
[#4] Acquisition of a work-class ROV and multiple AUVs (full kit + spares).
Legal Cover Initial $5.0M
[#16] Up-front expenditures for cover-story establishment, settlements/bribes, permits and legal actions.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.0M
[#10, #11, #12, #13, #26] Onshore wet/dry lab retrofit, cold/chill storage, specialized analytical instruments (X-ray, polarimetry, mass spec), BSL/containment setup and initial consumable stocks; includes initial artifact conservation setup.
Security Equipment $1.5M
[#15] One-time purchase of boarding and tactical equipment, small boats, and specialized denial gear.
Seafloor Sensor Network Initial $800K
[#7] Initial purchase and deployment hardware for moored hydrophones/nodes (10–30 nodes).
Archaeological Grants Initial $500K
[#29] Up-front academic partnership grants / heritage-styled funding to support cover/story and permits.
Data Infrastructure One Time $250K
[#21] Initial on-premise storage/compute and backup hardware for ROV/video/sonar archives.
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $29.2M/yr
Offshore Patrols $10.0M/yr
[#1] Recurring charter/operation of rotating offshore patrol vessels / fast patrol boats to enforce cordon (charter baseline option).
Staff Wages $4.0M/yr
[#14, #15] Salaries for research scientists, technical operators, ROV pilots, security personnel and associated on-call/premium pay; covers core personnel salary expenses.
Dedicated Research Vessel Ops $2.0M/yr
[#9] Annual operating costs for research vessel missions (crew, fuel, onboard labs).
Fuel And Energy $2.0M/yr
[#23] Fuel for patrols, support vessels, generators for remote sensors and onshore facilities.
Aerial Isr $1.5M/yr
[#2] Routine drone and manned ISR sorties, pilots, sensor suites and maintenance.
Submersible Operations $1.5M/yr
[#6] Occasional operation/support costs for manned submersible use (if maintained).
Rov Operations $1.0M/yr
[#5] Vessel time and mission support for ROV/AUV deployments (typical annual mission tempo).
Intelligence Opsec $1.0M/yr
[#18] Counterintelligence, HUMINT, cyber monitoring and leak response for maritime traffic and investigators.
Emergency Replenish $1.0M/yr
[#19] Annual replenishment allocation to maintain the contingency reserve fund after use or depreciation.
Institutional Overhead $900K/yr
[#30] Long-term pension/benefits, HR, accounting and overhead (estimated 20–40% on top of direct payroll).
Maintenance Spares $700K/yr
[#24] Spare parts, umbilicals, winch and thruster repairs, batteries and routine marine/ROV maintenance.
Supplies And Consumables $500K/yr
[#11, #12, #13, #26] Laboratory reagents, calibration, sample disposables, autoclave/incineration consumables, conservation supplies.
Research And Monitoring $500K/yr
[#20] Long-term environmental monitoring, impact studies, and periodic multidisciplinary surveys beyond routine ops.
Logistics And Transport $500K/yr
[#22] Helicopter transfers, crew rotations, freight and mission logistics for deploying teams and equipment.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#16] Ongoing legal fees, permit renewals, diplomatic engagement, and cover-story maintenance.
Satellite Imagery $300K/yr
[#3] Commercial satellite tasking, imagery subscriptions and AIS anomaly feeds.
Insurance $300K/yr
[#25] Vessel/equipment liability and covert operations insurance premiums.
Public Relations $300K/yr
[#17] Media monitoring, disinformation/soft influence and public narrative management.
Training And Safety $200K/yr
[#27] Regular crew and scientist training for deep-sea ops, biosafety, HAZMAT and boarding procedures.
Local Compensation $200K/yr
[#28] Payments/compensation to local fishers, ports and communities to discourage reporting/discovery.
Seafloor Sensor Maintenance $150K/yr
[#7] Maintenance, retrieval and replacement for moored seafloor sensor network.
Data Storage Recurring $150K/yr
[#21] Cloud storage, backups, compute, and software licenses for data processing and archival.
Archaeological Partnerships Recurring $150K/yr
[#29] Ongoing academic partnership funding and 'heritage protection' program costs under cover.
Artifact Conservation Maintenance $100K/yr
[#26] Ongoing conservation costs for recovered artifacts and active caseload maintenance.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $29.2M/yr
84.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine patrols, monitoring, scheduled research missions and no major incidents.
routine_patrols scheduled_research_missions no_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $31.2M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized unexpected salvage or equipment failure requiring short surge operations and legal/PR response.
unexpected_salvage_attempt equipment_failure small_public_report
🚨 Major Breach $59.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Significant public discovery, large-scale salvage or exposure requiring full emergency response and large remediation/containment outlays.
public_discovery large_scale_salvage media_exposure
🚨 Political Exposure $39.2M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Diplomatic incident or regional political pressure forcing large settlements, bribes or long-term covert expenditure to maintain cover.
diplomatic_incident local_government_pressure leaked_information
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $179.2M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline
Scientific need or policy decision forces capital scale-up (purchase of OPV(s), HOV, additional ROVs/MPA) in a single year.
research_scaleup decision_to_acquire_owned_assets need_for_continuous_high-bandwidth_observatory
👥 Personnel 47 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Technical Operator 12 [#14] Marine biologists, microbiologists, chemists and chiral-analysis specialists; core research staff.
ROV Pilot / Marine Technician 4 [#5, #14] ROV/AUV pilots and technicians for deep deployments and maintenance.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 15 [#15] Armed boarding teams and rapid-response tactical personnel for cordon enforcement and boardings.
Research Vessel Crew / Seafaring Staff 10 [#9, #22] Ship crew for dedicated research vessel charters/operations and mission support.
Engineer / Maintenance 3 [#24] Mechanical/electrical engineers for vessel/ROV/observatory maintenance.
Administrative Staff 2 [#16, #30] Program administration, legal/admin liaisons and HR/finance support.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#30] Senior oversight and program management.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed ranges for each line item but large variance exists around choices between charter vs. purchase, scale of sensor/cable projects, and political/legal costs; estimates use mid-to-conservative picks but one-time capital scenarios have high spread.
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