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SCP-2366 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2366
Expected annual
$2.5M
One-time setup
$3.3M
Annual recurring
$2.5M
Personnel
11
Significant one-time capital is required if a dedicated automated storage facility is built (multi-million USD); recurring costs are dominated by personnel (MTF field team and specialist horticulture), storage operations, and a maintained incident-response reserve.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.3M
Facilities $3.0M
[#1, #5, #11, #19, #9, #24] Includes perimeter fencing (~$25k), small forward facility/guard hut (~$20k), automated warehouse build-out (~$3,000,000), initial permitting (~$5k), a possible initial major recovery operation (~$20k), and placeholder for one-time contingency spend (see note #24; reserved as recurring fund by default).
Equipment $240K
[#3, #4, #17, #18] Site surveillance hardware (~$25k), remote communications/power hardware (~$15k), initial vehicle/trailer purchase (~$80k), and optional heavy-equipment purchase (~$100k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.5M/yr
Staff Wages $1.2M/yr
[#6, #7] Ongoing MTF forward-team staffing (6–12 agents; estimated 8 FTEs at fully-burdened ~$125k each ≈ $1,000,000) plus specialist horticulture staff (≈3 FTEs at ~$75k each ≈ $225,000).
Overhead Allocation $409K/yr
[#30] Administrative overhead allocated at 20% of direct recurring operating budget (chosen midpoint of 15–30%).
Research And Monitoring $305K/yr
[#14, #15, #22, #23, #27, #29] Laboratory projects (genetics, bioassays) and field behavioral studies (~$60k + $150k respectively), community/social monitoring (~$50k), data management & storage tasks (~$20k), periodic training/drills (~$15k), and archival/forensic analysis (~$10k).
Incident Response Fund $250K/yr
[#24] Recurring contingency reserve maintained for unexpected escalations (recommended minimum ~$250k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr
[#20, #21, #19, #25] Local liaison/cover-story maintenance (~$50k), legal/ethical oversight and counsel (~$30k), recurring permitting/compliance costs (~$5k), and insurance (~$15k).
Storage Operational Costs $60K/yr
[#12] Energy for climate control, automation maintenance, spare parts and monitoring for Storage Location 73-E averaged (~$60k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $50K/yr
[#9, #10, #17, #18, #26] Routine recovery operations (~$15k/yr average), secure transport (~$8k/yr average), vehicle fleet operations and maintenance (~$15k/yr), periodic heavy-equipment rental (~$10k/yr), and disposal/incineration averaged (~$2k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $30K/yr
[#5, #28] Utilities and routine maintenance for the forward shelter and on-site infrastructure; small annual budget for minor repairs and routine replacement/upkeep.
Replacement Upgrade Cycle $15K/yr
[#28] Averaged annual budget for sensor/automation replacement and software updates (5–10 year cycles averaged).
Supplies And Consumables $11K/yr
[#2, #13, #16] Herbicide program (~$3k/yr), sample packaging & quarantine materials averaged (~$5k/yr), PPE and decon supplies (~$3k/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.5M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, maintenance, and no major incidents.
routine_monitoring scheduled_recoveries no_public_exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $2.6M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized escalation (aggressive coyote activity, one complex recovery, or targeted legal inquiry) requiring extra field deployments and expedited transport/disposal.
wildlife_outbreak single_complex_recovery localized_media_interest
🚨 Major Breach $4.0M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Significant spread or public exposure requiring large-scale recovery, emergency containment, major legal action, and use of contingency funds.
spread_outside_AoE public_exposure multiple_large_recoveries
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $3.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Major research breakthrough or strategic decision to scale testing and exploitation leading to increased staffing, expanded storage, and accelerated trials.
positive_research_results decision_to_scale expanded_storage_needs
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#6] Rotating forward-team providing daily coverage and response (6–12 agents; modeled at 8 FTEs).
Horticulture Specialist / Theta-4 Gardener 3 [#7] Part-time/full-time horticulture and forestry specialists (2–4; modeled at 3 FTEs).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, allowing reasonable mid-point estimates; uncertainty remains around frequency of recoveries, storage build-out decisions, and incident probabilities, so estimates are medium confidence.
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