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SCP-2387 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-2387
Expected annual
$23.0M
One-time setup
$23.4M
Annual recurring
$20.8M
Personnel
190
Estimated initial one-time setup costs are dominated by a contingency reserve and equipment/lab purchases (~$23.4M). Recurring annual costs are driven by staff wages, research/monitoring, property leases and legal/cover operations (~$20.8M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $23.4M
Contingency Reserve One Time $20.0M
[#24] One-time contingency reserve for large-scale urban interventions / buyouts (recommended range $10M–$500M; conservative reserve chosen $20M).
Equipment $1.4M
[#3, #7, #8] MTF vehicles/equipment (one-time $800k–$1.2M, chosen $1,000,000), initial CCTV camera install and related hardware (~$120k), drones and pilots initial purchase (~$150k), server/encryption hardware (~$125k) included.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.0M
[#9] Materials analysis laboratory equipment suite (XRF/SEM/isotope/metallurgy) estimated $500k–$1.5M; mid-range $1,000,000 chosen.
Fencing Stockpile $350K
[#4] Stockpiled 3m sheet‑metal panels, trailers and prepositioning for multiple simultaneous events (est. $200k–$500k).
Facilities $275K
[#6, #23] Detention suite buildout and small secure storage/catalog room (detention suite est. $100k–$250k; storage $50k–$150k).
Training Initial $200K
[#25] Initial covercraft / identity fabrication buildout and OPSEC tooling (est. $100k–$300k).
Legal Cover Setup $150K
[#12] Setup of shell/legal cover (forgery/registration/legal work) estimated $75k–$300k; mid-range $150k.
Full Site Purchase Option $0
[#13, #26] Purchase / condemnation of entire three-block area estimated $50M–$500M+; not budgeted as a baseline one-time buy in this plan (captured in scenarios).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $20.8M/yr
Staff Wages $10.0M/yr
[#1, #3, #5, #9, #8, #19] On-site cover personnel (4 operatives/building × 30 buildings = 120 operatives × $50k = $6,000,000), MTF rapid-response personnel (48 × $60k = $2,880,000), fence-crew training/standby pay (~$300k/yr), materials scientists/technicians (4 FTE ≈ $400k/yr), video analysts (2 FTE ≈ $200k/yr), medical staff (~$250k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $4.0M/yr
[#10, #11, #16, #22] Multidisciplinary research program and field studies ($1M–$5M/yr; $2.5M chosen), archival retrieval & translation program (~$150k–$400k; $225k chosen), structural engineering/explosive-mitigation retainer (~$300k/yr), extended intelligence/expansion surveillance ($250k–$2M; $1,000,000 chosen).
Contingency Reserve Annual $2.0M/yr
[#24] Annual set-aside for mid-sized interventions and emergent purchases (operational contingency; complement to one-time reserve).
Cover Story And Legal $1.2M/yr
[#12, #20, #25] Annual maintenance for shells/legal counsel (~$50k–$250k; $150k chosen), contingency bribe/liaison budget ($100k–$500k; $300k chosen), PR suppression/media-influence program (~$200k–$1M; $600k chosen), ongoing OPSEC/cover maintenance (~$125k/yr).
Property Leases $1.1M/yr
[#13] Leasing of units to house operatives: assumed 30 units × median $3,600/mo ($43,200/yr) approximated to $1,080,000/yr (range $360k–$1.8M/yr for 30 units).
Inspection Overhead $900K/yr
[#2] Management, supervisory scheduling, incident logging and overtime for hourly exterior inspections (10–20% on top of on-site personnel; 15% of $6M = $900k).
Supplies And Consumables $355K/yr
[#4, #6, #7, #9, #23] Consumables include amnestic drugs ($10k–$50k/yr; $30k chosen), laboratory consumables and subcontract testing ($50k–$200k; $125k chosen), fence maintenance/replacement (~$50k/yr), camera/drone maintenance (~$100k/yr), secure storage running costs (~$50k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $300K/yr
[#14] Utilities and basic building maintenance for occupied buildings and monitoring infrastructure (estimated ~$150k–$500k for 30 units; mid-range $300k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $300K/yr
[#3, #17, #4, #5] Heavy-equipment/crane rental retainer and per-incident rentals (retainer ~$50k–$200k; mid $100k), vehicle maintenance/fuel and logistics for fence crews and MTF (~$200k).
Hazmat Program $250K/yr
[#18] Environmental remediation and HAZMAT program (training, teams, response program estimated $100k–$400k/yr; mid $250k).
Market Monitoring $200K/yr
[#21] Market analytics and monitoring to detect/predict anomalous economic/real-estate effects (est. $100k–$400k/yr; $200k chosen).
Anomalous Structure Monitoring $150K/yr
[#15] Ongoing monitoring and utilities for newly manifested/anomalous structures, minor securement tasks and perimeter control (~$50k–$500k/yr; $150k chosen).
Data Storage And Processing $60K/yr
[#8] Cloud/colocation and backup costs for continuous high-resolution video (~$20k–$100k/yr; $60k chosen). Analyst labor for video already included in staff_wages.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $20.8M/yr
34.0% probability / year
Normal year with ongoing monitoring, staffing, leases, and routine operations; no major incidents or purchases.
no major demolitions no public-exposure incidents routine research and maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $21.4M/yr
60.0% probability / year +$600K vs baseline
One or more localized demolition/construction events requiring rapid fence deployment, MTF response, detentions, hazmat response and PR suppression.
single-building demolition rapid fence deployment several detainees requiring amnestics
🚨 Major Incident $35.8M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Large simultaneous demolitions/constructs (skyscraper or hotel), civilian casualties or large public exposure requiring multi-week occupation, large-scale evacuations, demolition/containment campaigns and major PR/economic intervention.
large multi-building event civilian casualties/public exposure need for demolition/long-term occupation
🚨 Long Term Purchase $130.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$110.0M vs baseline
Decision-year in which Foundation purchases/condemns the entire three-block area to convert it to a closed site (large one-time capital outlay plus first-year operating costs).
escalation in frequency/severity policy decision to convert area to closed site
👥 Personnel 190 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / On-site Operative 120 [#1] Four operatives per building × 30 buildings for 24/7 coverage; fully-loaded cost per operative accounted for in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 48 [#3] Rapid-response evacuation/MTF unit sized 36–72; mid estimate 48 personnel included in staff_wages.
Fence Crew Member 12 [#5] Two fence-installation crews (6 people each) on standby; training/standby pay included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist 4 [#9, #10] Materials scientists/technicians (2–6 FTE range; 4 chosen) — salaries included in staff_wages; additional research staff budgeted under research program.
Video Analyst 2 [#8] Analysts for continuous video review (1–3 FTE); 2 chosen and included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer 2 [#6, #19] Medics and mental-health support for operatives and detainees; staffing costs included in staff_wages.
Administrative Staff 2 [#2, #12] Small administrative/cover maintenance support included within overall wage and overhead estimates.
📋 Confidence Notes
Notes provide extensive line-item ranges and operational guidance, allowing a mid-confidence estimate; significant uncertainty remains in event frequency, location-specific real-estate costs in Beijing, and high-cost tail events (full buyouts) which produce large variance.
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