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SCP-2546 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2546
Expected annual
$47.7M
One-time setup
$37.0M
Annual recurring
$39.7M
Personnel
20
Estimated one-time startup costs are approximately $36.95M driven by BSL-3 construction, major R&D (diagnostic and therapeutic/vaccine) and initial stockpiles; recurring annual costs are approximately $39.70M driven by specialized staff wages, contingency/legal reserves, MTF readiness, and large-scale surveillance/amnestic/medical programs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $37.0M
Therapeutic Vaccine R And D $25.0M
[#28] Capital for multi-year therapeutic/vaccine R&D (preclinical, toxicology, GMP bridging) assuming an aggressive development program.
Antiretroviral Stockpile $5.0M
[#16] Initial purchase/stockpile for post-exposure prophylaxis and treatment (stockpile for prioritized population).
Facilities $3.0M
[#1] Build/upgrade to BSL-3 standards: negative-pressure suites, airlocks, HEPA exhaust, decon showers, secure access, blast/ballistic doors, autoclaves, pass-throughs, certified biosafety cabinets.
Diagnostic R And D $2.0M
[#27] R&D and validation for rapid diagnostic assays (point-of-care/environmental) and initial small-scale manufacture tooling.
Equipment $1.1M
[#2, #4, #5, #11] Dedicated HVAC/HEPA installation, redundant power installation (generator/UPS), initial -80°C freezers and cold-chain hardware, transport vehicle purchases (fleet).
It Systems $800K
[#32] Initial secure IT/databases, classification/redaction systems, secure communications and amnestic administration tracking infrastructure.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $39.7M/yr
Catastrophic Contingency Reserve $20.0M/yr
[#34] Ongoing annual allocation toward a large contingency fund for containment-loss / pandemic-scale response (to be drawn in extreme events).
Legal Reserve $5.0M/yr
[#33] Annual allocation to legal contingency/reserve for settlements, litigation, fines and whistleblower management.
Research And Monitoring $3.4M/yr
[#14, #15, #16, #22, #26, #27] Surveillance/reconnaissance operational costs, per-case diagnostic testing & serial monitoring, antiretroviral replacement/rotation, blood-bank screening/recall, genomic sequencing program and ongoing diagnostic kit production costs.
Mtf Operational Readiness $2.5M/yr
[#12] Recruitment, training, equipment, readiness and annual operating costs for MTF-Chi-7 (biohazard tactical-medical team).
Staff Wages $2.2M/yr
[#8, #9, #10] Salaries for specialist retrovirologists, BSL-3 technicians/lab managers/QA staff, and dedicated site security contingent.
Amnestic Program $2.0M/yr
[#20] Class C amnestic production, administration, oversight and medical monitoring (treatment & program costs).
Administrative Overhead $1.5M/yr
[#35] HR, procurement, compliance, audits and insurance overhead (15–25% program-level overhead proxy).
Supplies And Consumables $380K/yr
[#6, #7] Laboratory reagents/consumables (media, kits, sequencing reagents) and PPE/decontamination supplies for operational teams.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#21] False-information campaigns, public-relations/legal cover-up operational costs for incidents (media, settlements, legal fees).
Clinical Treatment $300K/yr
[#18] Hospitalization/ICU and specialized clinical care for infected patients (baseline incidence allowance).
Psychological Care $300K/yr
[#30] Long-term psychological care, counseling and monitoring programs for staff and affected persons.
Training And Recruitment $300K/yr
[#31] Ongoing training, certification costs and retention premiums for experienced personnel.
It Maintenance $300K/yr
[#32] Ongoing maintenance, security, and classified record management for IT and redaction systems.
Quarantine Operations $250K/yr
[#17] Operation and staffing of quarantine wards (per-bed/day costs aggregated for baseline readiness).
Sewage Decontamination $200K/yr
[#24] Budget for targeted sewage/wastewater decontamination interventions and infrastructure remediation (baseline allocation).
Household Decontamination $200K/yr
[#29] Household/personal decontamination, temporary housing and compensation for affected civilians (baseline throughput).
Facilities Maintenance $171K/yr
[#3, #4, #5] HVAC/HEPA ongoing maintenance & certification, backup power maintenance/fuel & testing, freezer/monitoring maintenance.
Logistics And Transport $160K/yr
[#11, #13] Vehicle maintenance/fuel for secure transport fleet and per-deployment consumables/portable containment costs (baseline deployments assumed).
Reconstructive Surgery $100K/yr
[#19] Minor reconstructive/plastic surgery budget for recovered/high-risk individuals per containment policy.
Water System Response $100K/yr
[#23] Routine testing and small-scale emergency sampling/response funding for municipal water interventions (baseline allocation).
Biohazard Disposal $75K/yr
[#25] Annual autoclaving, incineration/chemical neutralization and hazardous-waste transport contracts for contaminated materials.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $39.7M/yr
69.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine containment, surveillance, maintenance and no major incidents.
routine_surveillance no_major_outbreak planned_training_and_r&d
🚨 Minor Incident $41.7M/yr
25.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized exposure/outbreak requiring limited deployments, targeted testing, quarantine and modest cover-up/legal measures.
single_local_outbreak small_field_deployments targeted_water_or_blood_testing
🚨 Major Breach $89.7M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Significant multi-site outbreak requiring large-scale MTF response, mass testing, blood/water interventions, major legal/cover operations and accelerated R&D.
multi-site_outbreak blood_bank_or_water_contamination large_scale_quarantines
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $539.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline
Containment failure with wide community spread/pandemic requiring national-scale emergency response, mass treatment, major settlements and full deployment of contingency reserves.
uncontained_spread national_infrastructure_response international_emergency_declaration
👥 Personnel 20 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 6 [#8] Senior virologists/retrovirology specialists (≥5 years experience), salary estimates included in staff_wages.
Laboratory Technician / Biosafety Officer 6 [#9] BSL-3 technicians, lab managers, QA/QC staff, included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#10] Site security contingent (24/7 coverage); MTF operational readiness budget is handled separately and not counted in staff_wages here.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items have wide ranges (water/sewage purges, vaccine R&D, legal/contingency reserves) and scenario probabilities are judgment-based; core operational costs (BSL-3, staffing, surveillance) are better defined while catastrophic scenarios are highly uncertain.
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