SCP-2629 — SCP-2629 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-2629 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-2629

Expected annual

$7.9M

One-time setup

$5.9M

Annual recurring

$7.8M

Personnel

One-time capital (facility acquisition, tunnel, and potential containment upgrade) dominate costs (~$6.0M); recurring annual operations (staffing, cleanup, ammunition, R&D, and large contingency reserves) are the main drivers (~$7.78M/yr).

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.9M

Containment Upgrade Capital $4.2M

[#25] Large-scale one-time containment upgrade capital (hermetic sealing, environmental systems, purpose-built chamber) midpoint estimate.

Tunnel Construction $700K

[#3] Capital cost to construct/replicate/ certify underground tunnel (excavation, shoring, ventilation, certification).

Facilities $485K

[#1, #2] Includes property acquisition (purchase midpoint used) and structural sealing/inconspicuous reinforcement of entrances/exits.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $275K

[#20] Initial experimental apparatus / prototype systems to research containment alternatives.

Equipment $128K

[#7, #11, #12] Paintball gear and spares, plus surveillance hardware and initial secure-storage hardware costs.

Vehicles Purchase $80K

[#16] Purchase of vans / response vehicles (2 vans midpoint).

Medical And Safety Infrastructure $25K

[#13] On-site medic gear, decon area, first-aid equipment and initial medical consumables/equipment.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.8M/yr

Staff Wages $1.5M/yr

[#5] Dedicated on-site staffing (8–16 FTEs); midpoint staffing and fully loaded compensation used.

Miscellaneous And Contingency $1.2M/yr

[#27] Contingency reserve budgeted at 20% of direct operating subtotal for unforeseen expenses and volatility.

Research And Monitoring $1.1M/yr

[#20] Ongoing R&D program to find alternatives to daily matches, experiments, prototypes and controlled trials.

Civil Liability Reserve $875K/yr

[#18] Annual reserve for emergency cleanup, property repair, payouts and discreet remediation of Aleph incidents (midpoint of set-aside range).

Administrative Overhead And Procurement $864K/yr

[#26] Administrative allocation (15% of direct operating subtotal) for site management, procurement, HR, accounting and oversight.

Daily Match Overhead $840K/yr

[#6] Per-event operating costs (overtime, per-diem, travel, shift premiums) for daily matches.

On Site Cleaning And Maintenance $455K/yr

[#9] Daily/periodic pressure-washing, repainting, floor/fixture restoration, and routine building upkeep.

Ammunition And Consumables $293K/yr

[#8] Paintball ammo and consumables (midpoint of given daily/yearly range).

Rapid Response Readiness $250K/yr

[#19] Standby readiness staffing and coordination for rapid-response containment/recapture teams.

Insurance And Workers Comp $85K/yr

[#22] Specialty insurance and occupational liability for staff and operations.

Security Guards And Perimeter Control $75K/yr

[#15] Local contracted guard services / perimeter patrols to prevent civilian access.

Local Legal Cover And Pr $55K/yr

[#17] Legal retainers, municipal filings, fake remediation paperwork and occasional payments to avoid scrutiny.

Waste Handling And Environmental Compliance $35K/yr

[#10] Disposal of paint slurry, filtration waste, permitting and occasional lab testing.

Training And Rules Compliance $35K/yr

[#21] Specialized training, rehearsals and simulation matches to minimize losses and ensure rules compliance.

Ppe Replacement And Laundering $28K/yr

[#14] Replacement and industrial laundering of paint-soaked PPE and spare protective equipment.

Property Taxes Municipal And Utilities $23K/yr

[#23] Property taxes, electricity (surveillance/HVAC), water for cleanup, minimal waste services.

Vehicles Running Costs $19K/yr

[#16] Fuel, insurance, maintenance and running costs for response/transport vehicles.

Surveillance And Secure Comms Recurring $18K/yr

[#11] Licenses, cloud storage, maintenance for CCTV/IR/motion sensors and secure comms.

Medical And Safety Recurring $16K/yr

[#13] Ongoing medical consumables and periodic occupational health checks.

Incident Documentation And Records Management $15K/yr

[#24] Secure archiving, witness management, redaction/translation and forged/cover records maintenance.

Tunnel Maintenance And Safety Systems $15K/yr

[#4] Ongoing tunnel inspections, ventilation and structural surveys, lighting/electrical upkeep and pest control.

Secure Data Storage And Analysis Recurring $8K/yr

[#12] Off-site backups, archival storage, and recurring data management costs.

Rapid Response Per Incident Cost $0/yr

[#19] Per-incident mobilization cost estimate $10,000–$50,000 (cost reserved and applied per-incident; not included in baseline annual recurring subtotal).

Property Lease $0/yr

[#1] Lease option for property is an alternative to purchase ($6,000–$30,000/yr); baseline model assumes purchase (one-time).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.8M/yr

83.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with no major Aleph incidents; daily matches continue and R&D proceeds at planned levels.

daily_matches_execute_normally no_significant_Aleph_incident routine_maintenance_and_R&D

🚨 Minor Incident $8.1M/yr

15.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline

Single localized Aleph-2629 event requiring evacuation, targeted cleanup, limited legal payouts and temporary increased staffing.

MTF_loss_in_match local_neighbourhood_evacuations targeted_cleanup_and_amnestics

🚨 Major Breach $9.3M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline

Widespread Aleph-2629 scenario with manifestations beyond immediate zone, major property damage, large civil suits and extended PR/legal response.

multiple_MTF_failures manifestation_outside_local_radius significant_public_exposure_and_litigation

👥 Personnel 12 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	8	[#5] Core MTF players to run daily matches and rapid-response.
Site Supervisor / Manager	1	[#5] On-site supervisor and administrative lead.
Medical Officer	1	[#5, #13] On-site medic for match injuries and occupational health oversight.
Engineer / Maintenance	2	[#5, #9, #4] Cleanup/maintenance technicians responsible for paint cleanup, tunnel & facility upkeep.

📋 Confidence Notes

Line-item ranges in analyst notes allow mid-point estimates, but many uncertainties (frequency of Aleph events, choice of purchase vs lease, decision to pursue large containment upgrade) leave moderate confidence; unusual anomalous behavior and contingencies justify non-high confidence.

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