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SCP-2651 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-2651
Expected annual
$29.2M
One-time setup
$467.1M
Annual recurring
$23.2M
Personnel
6
One-time setup and lunar transport dominate costs (~$467M), driven by containment chamber construction, mass-to-Moon logistics, and contingency/decommissioning reserves; recurring annual operations are moderate (~$23.25M/yr) driven by on-site staffing, logistics, research, and opportunity costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $467.1M
Lunar Transport And Installation $200.0M
[#2] Launches, payload integration, surface transfer, robotic/EVA installation and on-site deployment of heavy/bulky chamber components and large gear (mass-to-Moon costs).
Facilities $100.0M
[#1] Construction of a hemispherical containment recess, airlock integration, drains/sprinklers, structural reinforcement and shielding sized for lunar habitat integration.
Decommissioning Capability $100.0M
[#25] One-time budget for possible future decommissioning/destruction/remote disposal options (deep-space disposal or dedicated high-energy removal).
Insurance Valuation Reserve $50.0M
[#23] Valuation/reserve against loss or damage of SCP-2651-A (rhodium-platinum alloy) and related containment liabilities.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $7.5M
[#11, #16, #10] R&D for non-invasive imaging and on-lunar lab fit-out and HVAC/environmental control modifications necessary for analysis and fluid handling.
Equipment $3.5M
[#3, #4, #12, #9] Purchase and lunar-hardening of Kardec Counters and recording arrays, initial ruggedized cameras/microphones/recorders, initial spares inventory, and initial power hardware included here.
Biohazard Tanks And Plumbing $2.0M
[#5] Closed-loop fluid collection drains, sealed biohazard tanks, separators, sterilization/neutralization equipment and plumbing to prevent habitat contamination.
Emergency Response Reserve $2.0M
[#13] Initial contingency/reserve for emergency response planning, consumables for sheltering staff and minimal readiness capability.
Security Initial $1.0M
[#14] Initial classified infrastructure, secure comms hardware, access control and hardening against micrometeoroids/interference.
Field Generators Initial $1.0M
[#22] One-time R&D and hardware prototyping for electromagnetic/field generator countermeasures if required.
Training Initial $100K
[#20] Initial SOP creation, tabletop drills and training material development for lunar containment procedures.
Dedicated Sample Return Mission $0
[#6] Dedicated sample-return mission cost (optional). Set to $0 here as baseline assumes indefinite storage or ride-share scheduling rather than a dedicated mission.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $23.2M/yr
Staff Wages $10.0M/yr
[#7] On-site lunar technicians/security rotations and associated incremental lunar deployment costs (flight, life support, rotation premiums).
Opportunity Cost $5.0M/yr
[#26] Implicit ongoing cost representing diverted lunar base capacity (power, volume, crew time) estimated as a mission-budget fraction.
Logistics And Transport $3.0M/yr
[#6, #24] Sample-return marginal costs, periodic crew rotations/travel and transport logistics (ride-share arrangements, mission slot allocations).
Research And Monitoring $1.5M/yr
[#8, #16, #19, #4] Earth-based remote analysis team salaries and computing, on-lunar lab consumables/assays, and data handling/storage/bandwidth for continuous telemetry and archival.
Facilities Maintenance $1.2M/yr
[#9, #10, #14, #12] Ongoing maintenance of power/storage hardware, HVAC/filters, security audits/hardening and facility upkeep including scheduled checks.
Supplies And Consumables $950K/yr
[#5, #18, #17, #20] Consumables: biohazard neutralizers, chemical treatments, PPE, sterilants, medical monitoring supplies and recurring training consumables.
Insurance Premiums $500K/yr
[#23] Annual set-aside or premium-like payment for risk reserve and liability coverage proxies.
Emergency Readiness Fund $300K/yr
[#13] Standing annual readiness/reserve for emergency consumables, small rapid-response preparations and shelter stockpiles.
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#15] Legal, diplomatic, inter-agency coordination and cover-story maintenance to preserve secrecy and manage external exposure risk.
Translation And Cryptanalysis $200K/yr
[#21] Ongoing funding for linguists, cryptanalysis, computational translation tools and monitoring of Ortothan language outputs.
Kardec Counters Maintenance $150K/yr
[#3] Spares, qualification testing, weekly checks and replacement policy for Kardec Counters.
Redundancy Replenishment Spares $150K/yr
[#12] Annual replenishment and lifecycle replacement for cameras, pumps, Kardec Counters and other spares.
Field Generators Operation $100K/yr
[#22] Operation, maintenance and testing costs for any active electromagnetic/field countermeasure hardware.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $23.2M/yr
78.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with weekly checks, routine maintenance, and regular operations; no dedicated sample-return or major incidents.
regular weekly inspections scheduled rotations routine sample processing
🚨 Minor Incident $33.2M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Localized contamination, a single unplanned sample-return or emergency mission, limited medical monitoring and supplemental analysis.
unexpected 2651-SKIA deviation one-off dedicated sample-return or containment remediation
🚨 Major Breach $223.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or exposure requiring major emergency response, decommissioning actions or political/legal crisis and a dedicated large-scale mission.
containment breach political exposure requiring rapid removal decision to decommission/destroy
👥 Personnel 6 total
Role Count Notes
Technician (Lunar) 3 [#7] On-site weekly/operational technicians responsible for equipment checks, fluid handling and local procedures; rotation-heavy costs included in staff wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#7, #14] On-site security presence for access control, rapid response and classified handling.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#9, #10] Responsible for HVAC, power, and mechanical systems maintenance and EVA/installation support.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates rely on wide per-kg lunar transport ranges, uncertain policy decisions (dedicated missions, emergency launch reserves), and speculative R&D needs; many costs vary by mission posture and ride-share availability.
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