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SCP-2738 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-2738
Expected annual
$14.9M
One-time setup
$3.2M
Annual recurring
$14.2M
Personnel
11
One-time containment buildout and tooling estimated at roughly $3.24M, with recurring operational costs driven primarily by staff, retailer subsidies, reimbursements, and long-term R&D totaling about $14.217M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.2M
R And D Initial Allocation $1.0M
[#30] Initial allocation to long-term R&D program to pursue permanent neutralization (multi-year program seed).
Facilities $500K
[#5] Secure analysis laboratory / sandbox environment one-time build (lab construction, Faraday cage, air-gapped servers).
Software Development Initial $500K
[#7] Initial software development budget for detection & remediation tools (realistic initial budget ≈ $500k).
Mobile Containment Vehicles $300K
[#4] Purchase/upfit of mobile containment vehicle(s) (estimated 2 vehicles at ~$150k each).
Honey Store Sites $300K
[#19] Controlled 'honey-store' test site build/rent (one or more secure retail-like environments).
Secure Network Infrastructure $150K
[#23] One-time setup for secure comms & telemetry (VPN, SIEM deployment, TLS certs, out-of-band channels).
Firmware Cleaning Tooling $125K
[#18] Specialized tooling & OEM support contracts initial setup for firmware-level cleaning / hardware re-flashing.
Replacement Hardware Initial $100K
[#17] Initial stock of replacement/loaner POS hardware for rapid swaps (one-time procurement).
Forensic Vault $100K
[#27] Small secure vault build for anomalous physical items / long-term sample bank (build-out).
Equipment $75K
[#3] Forensic/containment kits (4 kits, laptops, write-blockers, imaging tools, Faraday bags).
Evidence Storage Infrastructure $60K
[#14] On-site evidence storage infrastructure (secure cabinets, barcoding, initial build-out).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $30K
[#8] Licensing & OS/POS software copies for testbeds (initial lawful copies, virtualization licenses).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $14.2M/yr
R And D Program $3.0M/yr
[#30] Long-term R&D program funding aimed at permanent neutralization (multi-year program budget).
Retailer Subsidies $2.0M/yr
[#9] Nationwide POS endpoint security subsidies / retailer cooperation (mid-range across major chains).
Staff Wages $1.7M/yr
[#1, #6, #21] Incident response / containment team salaries (6 FTE ~ $936k/yr), reverse-engineering & malware research staff (4 FTE ~ $600k/yr), data science staff (1–2 ≈ $200k/yr).
Inventory Reimbursement $1.5M/yr
[#11] Reimbursement for inventory losses / adjusted accounting (annual program to cover multi-incident losses).
Store Downtime Compensation $1.0M/yr
[#10] Per-store containment downtime reimbursement reserve (annual reserve for compensating lost sales/labor).
Giftcard Monitoring Program $1.0M/yr
[#22] Gift card / prepaid card supply-chain monitoring program (equipment/training nationwide).
Insurance Contingency Fund $1.0M/yr
[#24] Insurance / contingency fund allocation to cover exposure events, litigation, or large remediation draws.
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#12] Legal & cover-story operations (retainers, counsel coordination, insurance/contingency costs).
Corporate Liaison $400K/yr
[#13] Corporate liaison / PR campaign to upper management (briefings, trainings, materials across national chains).
Misinformation Management $400K/yr
[#26] Public-facing misinformation management and PR contractors for national chains (monitoring & response).
Training And Drills $300K/yr
[#25] Training materials & periodic drills for district managers and retail staff (program-level budgeting).
Logistics And Transport $200K/yr
[#16] Travel, per diem, and transport for field teams (flights, rentals, hotels; estimated annual deployment costs).
Surge Staffing $200K/yr
[#2] Temporary/surge staffing contingency for multi-store outbreaks (overtime, contractors; annual contingency budget).
Reimaging Services $200K/yr
[#28] Centralized backup/restore & POS re-imaging services to rapidly restore affected registers.
Replacement Hardware Annual $150K/yr
[#17] Annual replacement of irrecoverable POS terminals and peripherals (estimated replacements/year).
Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr
[#5] Secure analysis laboratory ongoing utilities & maintenance (~$50k–150k/yr; mid estimate used).
Software Updates $100K/yr
[#7] Ongoing updates & support for detection & remediation tools (~$50k–200k/yr).
Honey Store Ops $100K/yr
[#19] Operating costs for controlled honey-store test sites (stocking, staff, operations).
Supplies And Consumables $60K/yr
[#20] Consumables for experiments / re-stocking items ($1k–10k/mo; mid-range annualized).
Media Destruction $50K/yr
[#29] Media destruction / secure disposal contracts for irrecoverable hardware.
Mobile Vehicle Maintenance $40K/yr
[#4] Maintenance & fuel for mobile containment vehicle(s) (~$10k–30k/yr per vehicle; 2 vehicles assumed).
Cctv Archival $36K/yr
[#15] CCTV & transaction log retrieval and archival (centralized archive costs).
Forensic Vault Ops $35K/yr
[#27] Forensic sample bank ongoing staffing, monitoring, and sensors for vaults.
Research And Monitoring $30K/yr
[#21] Data science & compute resources for modeling & monitoring (cloud/on-prem compute).
Network Ops $30K/yr
[#23] Ongoing secure comms & telemetry operations (VPN, SIEM upkeep, certs).
Firmware Servicing $20K/yr
[#18] Per-device servicing, OEM support contracts, and tool maintenance for firmware-level cleaning ($50–500 per device aggregated).
Licensing $15K/yr
[#8] Ongoing licensing & additional POS/OS copies (~$5k–20k/yr).
Evidence Storage Ops $15K/yr
[#14] Ongoing storage operations for evidence (climate control, tracking, database ops).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $14.2M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major outbreaks; routine monitoring, maintenance, and ongoing R&D.
no multi-store outbreak steady incident rate routine maintenance and updates
🚨 Minor Incident $14.7M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized multi-store outbreak requiring surge staffing, additional travel, per-incident reimbursements, and extra forensic work.
multi-store outbreak spike in detections requiring surge teams increased travel and per-incident reimbursements
🚨 Major Outbreak $34.2M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Widespread retail propagation requiring large-scale retailer subsidies, emergency reimbursements, large legal/insurance draws, and accelerated R&D.
nationwide rapid spread major retailer exposure large litigation or settlement events
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#1] Dedicated incident response / containment team (6 FTE) for detection, travel, on-site containment and liaison.
Research Scientist / Reverse Engineer 4 [#6] Reverse-engineering & malware research staff (4 FTE used in budgeting).
Data Scientist 1 [#21] Data science & statistical modeling capability (1–2 FTE; 1 FTE included here for budgeting).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges and staffing assumptions enabling a reasonable mid-range estimate, but many items are highly variable (retailer subsidy scale, outbreak frequency, long-term R&D needs) so uncertainty remains.
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