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SCP-2809 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-2809
Expected annual
$17.7M
One-time setup
$15.5M
Annual recurring
$17.2M
Personnel
41
Initial setup costs are substantial (~$15.2M) driven by platform buildout, front-company creation, crisis reserves and identity replacement. Annual running costs are dominated by personnel, aftercare, front-company ad budgets and research/field operations (~$17.22M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $15.5M
Crisis Reserve $5.5M
[#18] Contingency / emergency response fund midpoint ($1M–$10M) set-aside.
Replacement Identities One Time $2.8M
[#27] One-time relocation/identity setup for ~50 cases midpoint ($500k–$5M total).
Liability Reserve $2.8M
[#20] One-time liability/indemnity reserve midpoint ($500k–$5M).
Facilities $1.2M
[#11] Secure interviewing/containment facility buildout midpoint ($500k–$2M).
Centralized Monitoring Platform $1.0M
[#1] Development of secure scraping/ingestion platform midpoint ($500k–$1.5M).
Ml Models Initial $300K
[#4] Purchase/license/tuning initial cost midpoint ($100k–$500k).
Legal And Compliance Initial $300K
[#7] Initial legal/compliance/cover creation midpoint ($100k–$500k).
Front Companies Setup $285K
[#8] Setup of 3 front marketing agencies midpoint ($120k–$450k).
Cyber Ops Tooling $275K
[#6] Initial tooling for takedown/offensive ops midpoint ($150k–$400k).
Forensic Lab $250K
[#16] One-time forensic lab equipment/workstations midpoint ($100k–$400k).
Covert Tracking Hardware $175K
[#15] Initial disposable trackers, SIMs and covert hardware midpoint ($50k–$300k).
Opsec Initial $175K
[#22] OPSEC / HSM / secure comms initial midpoint ($50k–$300k).
Decoy Booking Infra $138K
[#10] One-time build of hardened instrumented Quondam site midpoint ($75k–$200k).
Training Setup $125K
[#21] Initial training and SOP development midpoint ($50k–$200k).
Evidence Archives Initial $113K
[#24] Secure evidence/archive setup midpoint ($25k–$200k).
Takedown Automation Initial $88K
[#26] Public monitoring/takedown automation initial midpoint ($25k–$150k).
Equipment $0
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Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
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🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $17.2M/yr
Staff Wages $5.1M/yr
[#5, #6, #11, #12, #16, #25] Digital analysts/data scientists, cyber ops personnel, facility operating staff, medical staff, forensic analysts and research staff aggregated (selected midpoints).
Aftercare $2.2M/yr
[#13] Medical & psychological aftercare for ~200 people midpoint ($400k–$4M/yr).
Front Companies Operational Budgets $2.0M/yr
[#9] Operational ad buys / payroll / organic campaigns for 3 agencies midpoint (~$360k–$3.6M/yr).
Logistics And Transport $1.8M/yr
[#14] MTF deployment, travel, field surveillance and stakeouts midpoint ($500k–$3M/yr).
Insurance And Liability Recurring $1.1M/yr
[#20] Annual insurance/indemnity and expected liability reserves midpoint ($200k–$2M/yr).
Amnestic Treatments $1.1M/yr
[#12] Treatment costs for ~200 administrations midpoint ($100k–$2M/yr).
Program Administration Overhead $750K/yr
[#28] Finance, HR and management overhead estimated at midpoint (10–20% of recurring program costs).
Cover Story And Legal $725K/yr
[#7, #19] Ongoing legal/compliance retainer and PR/cover story maintenance midpoints (legal $150k–$600k; PR $100k–$600k).
Cyber Contractor Retainer $600K/yr
[#17] Third-party exploit/ad-network specialists retainer midpoint ($200k–$1M/yr).
International Liaison $525K/yr
[#23] Liaison/bribery/offsets midpoint ($50k–$1M/yr depending on scope).
Cloud Compute $510K/yr
[#2] Cloud GPU/CPU for inference and retraining midpoint (~$120k–$900k/yr).
Replacement Identities Recurring $275K/yr
[#27] Limited ongoing support for relocated identities (assumed ~10% recurring after initial relocation).
Storage And Bandwidth $198K/yr
[#3] Long-term secure storage and bandwidth midpoint (~$36k–$360k/yr).
Ml Models Recurring $102K/yr
[#4] Licensing / dataset subscriptions and consultant support recurring (~$24k–$180k/yr).
Decoy Booking Ops $102K/yr
[#10] Hosting/ops for instrumented Quondam site midpoint ($2k–$15k/month).
Opsec Recurring $85K/yr
[#22] Ongoing OPSEC & secure-comms maintenance midpoint ($20k–$150k/yr).
Training Recurring $62K/yr
[#21] Annual refreshers and exercises midpoint ($25k–$100k/yr).
Evidence Archives Recurring $30K/yr
[#24] Ongoing secure evidence storage/admin midpoint ($10k–$50k/yr).
Tracking Replacements $28K/yr
[#15] Replacements/consumables for covert trackers and SIMs midpoint ($5k–$50k/yr).
Public Monitoring Ops $28K/yr
[#26] Ongoing takedown automation operations midpoint ($5k–$50k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
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Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
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Research And Monitoring $0/yr
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Forensic Lab Recurring $0/yr
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⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $17.2M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal year with ongoing monitoring, takedowns, routine returns and expected caseflow; no major incidents.
steady_caseflow regular takedown operations no large-scale public exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $19.2M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized containment failure or public exposure requiring emergency amnestics, PR and legal response.
local media leak small-scale operational failure targeted litigation
🚨 Major Breach $25.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Widespread public incident, mass exposures or large-scale operations gone wrong requiring large emergency fund drawdown, legal settlements and mass amnestics.
mass exposure cross-border incidents class-action litigation
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $20.2M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Discovery leads to expanded research program and larger monitoring/ops effort requiring additional hires and platform scale.
valid causal hypothesis need for expanded experiments requirement to scale monitoring globally
👥 Personnel 41 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Data Scientist 6 [#5] Data scientists/digital analysts (typical 4–8 FTEs; midpoint used).
Manager / Team Lead 1 [#5] Team manager for analytics/operations.
Cyber Operator / Offensive Ops 10 [#6] Red-teamers, infrastructure operators required for takedowns and tracing (recurring ops staff).
Medical Officer 6 [#11, #12] Medical staff for amnestic administration and post-treatment monitoring.
Forensic Analyst 4 [#16] Forensic/mobile analysts for device/image analysis.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#14] MTF/security personnel for field deployments and node surveillance.
Administrative Staff 4 [#28] Finance, HR, procurement and program administration overhead.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#10, #22] Systems engineers / ops for platform and secure facility maintenance.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst ranges and midpoints; many items (offensive ops, legal risk, replacement identities, crisis reserve) are highly context-dependent so totals have moderate uncertainty.
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