SCP-2972 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2972
Expected annual
$1.0M
One-time setup
$1.6M
Annual recurring
$894K
Personnel
13
Initial capital/setup costs are moderate (~$1.6M) driven largely by contingency/reserve and one-time kit-outs; recurring annual operations under a minimal containment model are ~ $894k/year, driven mainly by local MTF staffing, ongoing research, and logistics for vehicle replacement.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.6M
Contingency Reserve $1.0M
[#22] Recommended contingency/emergency response fund (one-time/reserve held available for rapid escalation).
Facilities $210K
[#1, #2, #3] Purchase of lot and legal closing fees; demolition and site remediation; perimeter construction (fence, bollards, signage).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $140K
[#16, #24] Initial research program equipment and lab fit-out (specialized sensors, magnetometers, GPS arrays) and purchase/install of magnetic-orientation monitoring instruments.
Foreign Mtf Kit Out $125K
[#21] Initial kit-out for foreign/local MTF partners (PPE, transport, weapons/equipment per local SOP) one-time purchase.
Crimea Warehouse Fitout $60K
[#11] Initial secure warehouse fit-out in Sebastopol, Crimea (one-time secure fit-out/camouflage expenses).
Equipment $56K
[#4, #5, #17] CCTV/hardware and install; initial secure server/storage setup; initial secure comms/IT setup (satellite/VPN/SEAD) one-time setup costs.
Backup Power $10K
[#6] UPS and generator purchase for surveillance and comms (one-time hardware purchase).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $894K/yr
Staff Wages $325K/yr
[#7] Local MTF/ security staffing and patrols (LMTF 769-Ayin obligations: salaries, benefits, vehicles, fuel, training for rotational presence).
Research And Monitoring $237K/yr
[#15, #16, #24] Recurring research salaries and consumables, per-vehicle forensic examination baseline activity, and maintenance for magnetic-orientation monitoring instruments.
Cover Story And Legal $112K/yr
[#18, #19, #20, #26] Amnestic/cover operations and civilian victim handling contingency, shell-company maintenance/accounting, public relations/misinformation budget, and minimum legal retainer for routine cross-border risk management.
Logistics And Transport $75K/yr
[#9, #10] Baseline delivery logistics: replacement-purchase of inexpensive used vehicles (one per ~21 days) and domestic delivery/tow/driver costs.
Foreign Mtf Sustainment $60K/yr
[#21] Ongoing sustainment/training/support for foreign/local MTF partners (consumables, training exchanges, comms sustainment).
Vetting And Counterintelligence $60K/yr
[#25] Personnel vetting, polygraphs, re-vetting and counterintelligence support to reduce leak risk.
It Bandwidth And Maintenance $15K/yr
[#5, #17] Continuous encrypted data storage, off-site replication, monthly bandwidth costs and recurring comms maintenance.
Facilities Maintenance $9K/yr
[#8] Routine site maintenance, groundskeeping, fence repairs, utilities, local property taxes and insurance.
Backup Power Fuel Maintenance $1K/yr
[#6] Annual fuel and maintenance costs for generator/UPS to keep surveillance and comms live.
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
[]
Crimea Rent And Staffing $0/yr
[#11] Recurring rent & local staffing for Crimea-side warehouse (set to 0 in baseline; costs incurred in alternative scenarios).
Recovery Operations Annual $0/yr
[#12] Per-vehicle on-the-ground recovery operations in Crimea (per-recovery $2k–$20k) — set to 0 in baseline; costs shown in recovery scenario.
International Transport Annual $0/yr
[#13] International/covert transport of recovered vehicles to Foundation custody (per-vehicle $5k–$50k) — set to 0 in baseline; costs shown in recovery scenario.
Covert Diplomatic Payments $0/yr
[#14] Covert payments, bribes, false paperwork in Crimea — variable; set to 0 in baseline, used in higher-intensity scenarios.
Disposal Storage Annual $0/yr
[#23] Annual costs for long-term storage/disposal of recovered vehicles (per-vehicle $500–$5,000) — set to 0 in baseline; scales with recoveries.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $894K/yr
83.0% probability / year
Minimal operational model: Foundation maintains fence/camera and a small local MTF presence, purchases replacement vehicles at ~one per 21 days, limited Crimea activity, ongoing research at modest scale.
minimal_containment_policy no_recovery_campaign routine_vehicle_replacement
🚨 Recovery Mode $1.6M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$720K vs baseline
Foundation elects to recover and repatriate vehicles from Crimea routinely (cycle cars rather than replace), requiring Crimea warehouse staffing, per-vehicle recovery teams, international transport, and covert payments.
policy_decision_to_recover increased_focus_on_research political_window_allows_recovery
🚨 Major International Incident $2.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
A political or public-exposure event or mass-disappearance forces emergency response: expedited recoveries, large covert/PR/legal expenditures, aircraft charters, and major contingency drawdown.
mass_disappearances customs_interception public_leak_or_investigation
👥 Personnel 13 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 LMTF 769-Ayin rotational detachment maintaining 24/7 surveillance and patrols; maps to staff_wages [#7].
Research Scientist 3 Dedicated small research team investigating timing/selection/physics; maps to research_and_monitoring [#16].
Engineer / Maintenance 1 Site maintenance, generator/upkeep, and technical support; maps to facilities_maintenance and backup_power [#6, #8].
IT Specialist / Communications 1 Maintains secure comms, storage, and bandwidth; maps to it_bandwidth_and_maintenance and equipment [#5, #17].
Administrative Staff 1 Shell-company maintenance, local administrative tasks, liaison; maps to cover_story_and_legal and shell maintenance [#19].
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 Oversight, coordination with MTFs and international partners; maps to overall program management.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are well-scoped (local MTF wages, CCTV, vehicle purchase cadence) so baseline recurring cost has moderate confidence; international recovery, covert payments, and contingency sizing are highly uncertain due to geopolitics, so overall confidence is medium.
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