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SCP-2979 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2979
Expected annual
$566K
One-time setup
$11.6M
Annual recurring
$559K
Personnel
6
Initial one-time containment, stockpiling, and legal/cover-up reserves dominate one-time costs (~$11.6M driven largely by contingency reserve), while recurring costs are modest (~$559k/year) driven primarily by personnel, ongoing monitoring, and covert surveillance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $11.6M
Contingency Scaleup Reserve $10.5M
[#21] Contingency reserve for large-scale outbreak response (mass amnestic campaigns, mass care, media suppression). Midpoint of $1M–$20M+ used to represent meaningful worst-case reserve.
Legal Contingency Reserve $275K
[#17] One-time contingency reserve for possible settlements or legal costs (item notes included both recurring retainer and reserve). Midpoint of $50k–$500k used.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $150K
[#12] Initial memetic research study and associated lab/setup costs (non-recurring study budget). Midpoint of $50k–$250k.
Public Relations And Legal Mitigation $130K
[#15] One-time PR/cover-story, settlement/legal mitigation for school district; midpoint estimate within $10k–$500k+ range (typical/medium case).
Amnestic Stockpile Purchase $128K
[#7] Initial purchase/manufacture of Class-F amnestic stockpile (100–500 doses). Midpoint of $5k–$250k assumed for initial stockpile.
Emergency Response Fund Reserve $112K
[#19] Initial funded emergency response reserve for rapid amnestic deployment and crisis team. Midpoint of $25k–$200k.
Records Sanitization And Digital Remediation $110K
[#14] One-time records and digital remediation contracts, takedowns, legal requests. Midpoint of $20k–$200k.
Recovery And Destruction Operations $80K
[#13] Field recovery/destruction operations to find other instances (travel, teams). Midpoint of $10k–$150k.
Automated Monitoring Setup $25K
[#18] One-time setup of automated info-monitoring web crawler and alerting system. Midpoint of $10k–$40k.
Cctv Policy Adjustments $18K
[#6] One-time CCTV/comms policy review and initial footage redaction tool/setup. Midpoint of $5k–$30k.
Equipment $12K
[#3] Specialized handling/transport equipment (opaque gloves, covered cradle, remote manipulators) one-time kit. Midpoint of $5k–$20k.
Training And Sop Development $9K
[#4] Initial training, SOP development, instructor hours, printed SOPs. Midpoint of $3k–$15k for initial development.
Facilities $3K
[#1] Secured containment locker + opaque sleeve, shipping and accessioning into evidence chain. Midpoint estimate of $1k–$5k.
Treatment Campaign Reserve $0
[#10] Treatment campaign costs are scenario-driven (minimal/medium/worst). Primary budgeting done in cost_scenarios; no fixed one-time allocation assumed here.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $559K/yr
Staff Wages $315K/yr
[#5,#12,#16] Recurring personnel wages: two Level-2 guards (item #5) plus research staffing and a liaison/field operative and admin support derived from ongoing research and monitoring needs (item #12, #16).
Logistics And Transport $160K/yr
[#9,#16,#13] Ongoing surveillance/site checks, investigator travel, covert team incidentals and vehicles; midpoint of item #16's $100k–$400k plus investigation travel capacity.
Research And Monitoring $30K/yr
[#12,#20,#18,#6] Ongoing memetics research operating costs, archive management, monitoring system maintenance, and compliance monitoring (non-salary research costs). Midpoint of recurring ranges ($30k–$100k and smaller recurring items aggregated).
Cover Story And Legal $28K/yr
[#15,#17,#14] Recurring legal retainer, indemnity administration, and ongoing cover-story/FOIA mitigation. Midpoint of item #17's $5k–$50k/yr retainer and small ongoing PR/legal monitoring.
Automated Monitoring Maintenance $9K/yr
[#18] Maintenance and analyst triage time for web crawler/alerting system. Midpoint of $3k–$15k/yr.
Cctv Monitoring Redaction $6K/yr
[#6] Ongoing CCTV footage triage, redaction labor and compliance monitoring. Midpoint of $2k–$10k/yr.
Supplies And Consumables $6K/yr
[#22] Miscellaneous consumables & administration (PPE, labels, postage). Midpoint of $1k–$10k/yr.
Training And Sop Refresher $3K/yr
[#4] Annual refresher training, instructor hours and printed updates. Midpoint of $1k–$5k/yr.
Facilities Maintenance $3K/yr
[#2] Incremental Site-162 storage overhead (electricity, climate control, monitoring) allocated to storing the object. Midpoint of $500–$5,000/yr.
Amnestic Replenishment $0/yr
[#7] Per-dose manufacturing cost is recurring only if doses are used; baseline uneventful year assumes no routine usage so set to $0/yr here (per-dose $50–$500 when used).
Amnestic Administration Per Treatment $0/yr
[#8,#10] Administration cost (~$500–$2,000 per treated person) is incident-driven; baseline no-treatment year set to $0/yr.
Investigation Per Contact Cost $0/yr
[#9,#10] Identification/outreach per-person contact costs ($150–$300) are incident-driven; baseline set to $0/yr.
Long Term Care Per Chronic Case $0/yr
[#11] Long-term residential care costs ($30k–$100k/yr per chronic case) are conditional on irreversible cases; baseline assumes none and sets to $0/yr.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $559K/yr
98.8% probability / year
Uneventful year with containment maintained, routine monitoring, training refreshers, and no new exposures requiring treatment.
no new exposures contained at Site-162 routine monitoring and training only
🚨 Minimal Incident $689K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$130K vs baseline
Small localized exposure (single classroom ~35 people) requiring targeted amnestic administration, interviews, and short investigations.
single classroom exposure unexpected viewing/photographing within school rapid targeted field response
🚨 Medium Outbreak $2.9M/yr
0.2% probability / year +$2.3M vs baseline
Whole-school exposure (≈900 people) requiring mass amnestic campaigns, broad investigation, records remediation, and significant PR/legal actions.
whole-school exposure multiple records/archives contain vector cooperation limited, requiring forcible remediation
🚨 Catastrophic Outbreak $15.6M/yr
0.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Widespread public dissemination of the name (online or many archived instances), necessitating mass amnestic campaigns, large contingency procurement, and national-level remediation.
name spreads widely online/media large public/alumni exposure failure of initial containment and remediation
👥 Personnel 6 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#5] Two Level-2 guards assigned to evidence vault; salaries/benefits included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist 1 [#12] PI/lead for memetic research; salary portion included in staff_wages.
Research Technician 1 [#12] Technician/analyst support for memetic research and crawler triage; salary included in staff_wages.
Liaison Agent / Field Operative 1 [#16] Covert community liaison / periodic site checks; salary portion included in staff_wages.
Administrative Staff 1 [#4,#9] Administrative/clerk support for evidence logging, outreach booking, and SOP documentation; salary included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Article and analyst notes provide clear containment and cost categories, allowing mid-confidence estimates for routine items. Large uncertainty remains around outbreak scale, legal settlements, and contingency reserve magnitude (hence medium confidence). Midpoint estimates used for ranges.
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