SCP-3089 — SCP-3089 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-3089 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-3089

Expected annual

$20.8M

One-time setup

$22.9M

Annual recurring

$19.6M

Personnel

120

One-time capital outlays of approximately $22.9M (mainly facility builds, specialized labs, transport purchase, and a contingency reserve) and recurring annual costs of roughly $19.6M driven primarily by MTF payroll, ongoing research/monitoring, and operational logistics.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $22.9M

Breach Reserve Fund $10.0M

[#30] Containment breach / public exposure reserve fund (recommended scalable allocation).

Facilities $5.4M

[#9, #10, #20] Standard human cells, HTH cell construction, and incident command / ops center setup (facility portion). Assumes ~6 standard cells and 2 HTH cells plus hardened command room.

Equipment $3.3M

[#1, #7, #11, #18] I/O-SILVER initial development and integration (#1), secure transport asset purchases (#7), medical telemetry per-bed hardware (#11), and secure cold-chain / evidence freezer setup (one-time component of #18).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.1M

[#13, #16] Specialized BSL-3-capable pathology/autopsy lab (#13) and insect/vivarium setup for Cicadetta montana research (#16).

Emergency Stockpile Initial $1.1M

[#27] Initial contingency/rapid-response stockpile capital (portable negative-pressure units, spare PPE, temporary holding modules).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $19.6M/yr

Staff Wages $11.9M/yr

[#6, #12] MTF standing readiness & payroll for three MTFs and ongoing medical monitoring staff costs.

Research And Monitoring $2.6M/yr

[#2, #14, #15, #16, #18, #19, #23] I/O-SILVER ongoing cloud/ML operations and monitoring (#2), autopsy/genomics per-specimen workflows (#14), long-term genomic/wet-lab research program (#15), recurring vivarium operations (#16), secure evidence storage operations/archival (#18, #23), and forensic entomology training (#19).

Logistics And Transport $1.2M/yr

[#5, #8, #22] MTF deployment per-op costs (#5), secure transport operational costs (fuel/maintenance/pilots) (#8), and covert international containment per-op budget amortized annually (#22).

Cover Story And Legal $1.2M/yr

[#21, #29] Annual PR/cover story and legal suppression budgets (#21) combined with vetting/background checks and cover identity maintenance costs (#29).

Facilities Maintenance $850K/yr

[#20, #24] Command center and secure ops running costs, HVAC/negative-pressure power, facility utilities and overhead for containment wing.

Clinical Care $700K/yr

[#25] Clinical care and custodial costs for contained individuals (food, utilities, psychological care, behavioral management) aggregated across expected patient load.

Training And Exercises $400K/yr

[#28] Annual joint exercises, tabletop drills, and interagency training cycles.

Emergency Stockpile Replenishment $200K/yr

[#27] Annual replenishment of rapid-response stockpile and consumables.

Cyber Mitigation $150K/yr

[#3] Contractor cyber/forensic takedown and content suppression capability budget (per-incident capacity aggregated to an annual expected spend).

Psychological Operations $150K/yr

[#26] Psychological operations and deprogramming costs per-case aggregated to an annual program budget.

Supplies And Consumables $130K/yr

[#17] PPE, decontamination supplies, biomedical waste disposal and per-case consumables.

Digital Forensics $110K/yr

[#4] Digital forensics/evidence collection per-operation costs aggregated across expected operations.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $19.6M/yr

69.0% probability / year

Normal year with ongoing monitoring, routine operations, and no major containment failures.

steady monitoring tempo periodic small operations no public exposure

🚨 Minor Incident $20.4M/yr

25.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline

One or more limited community outbreaks or online leak events requiring increased takedown, a handful of MTF ops and extra PR/forensics.

localized community outbreak coordinated takedown + media attention

🚨 Major Breach $27.1M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$7.5M vs baseline

Multi-site containment failure or international spread requiring major cross-border operations, expanded clinical care, and litigation/PR surge.

multi-site outbreak international legal complications significant media exposure

🚨 Catastrophic Exposure $79.6M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$60.0M vs baseline

Public exposure or wide-scale outbreak necessitating full reserve deployment, mass clinical response, settlements, replacement infrastructure and long-term care.

mass public exposure nationwide or multi-country outbreak legal/settlement actions

👥 Personnel 120 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	100	[#6] MTF staffing (three MTFs combined) and tactical personnel required for containment and deployments; majority of payroll.
Research Scientist	8	[#15, #13] Staff for genomic/wet-lab research and specialized pathology support; salaries included in research program and lab budgets.
Medical Officer	6	[#12, #25] Physicians/nurses for monitoring, clinical care, and patient management.
Engineer / Maintenance	3	[#24, #20] Facility and equipment maintenance including HVAC, generators, and secure systems upkeep.
Administrative Staff	3	[#21, #29] Administrative, legal liaison, and cover-story support roles.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates use the analyst-provided ranges and midpoints; many line items scale with incident tempo, number of contained persons, and international complexity, producing moderate uncertainty.

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