SCP-3136 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3136
Expected annual
$4.8M
One-time setup
$4.8M
Annual recurring
$4.7M
Personnel
18
Initial containment and laboratory setup are moderate but non-trivial (~$4.8M one-time) while steady-state operations are driven by staffing, specialized research/monitoring, and marine response logistics (~$4.66M/yr). The largest drivers are BSL-3 retrofit and research setup (one-time) and recurring research/monitoring plus marine salvage/response contingencies.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.8M
Equipment $1.5M
[#1, #3, #4, #8, #11, #12, #14, #16, #20] One-time hardware and installed systems: lead-lined lockable case and installation (#1), CCTV and sensor setup (#3), access control hardware (#4), digitization rig (#8), optional vessel purchase (#11), ROV/AUV/surface drones purchases (#12), GPS tagging and receiver deck (#14), euthanasia/neutralization equipment (#16), and transport/SOP-specific packaging/armored transport setup (#20).
Facilities $1.3M
[#2, #10, #27] Vault/secure-room construction and environmental control (#2), facility portion of BSL-3 retrofit (#10), and secondary-site prep for redundancy (#27). Estimate assumes mid-range vault upgrade plus a substantial portion of the BSL-3 retrofit allocated to structural/work and a single secondary site prep.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.0M
[#9, #10, #28] Controlled-experiment suite and containment apparatus for drawing tests (#9), research instrumentation portion of the BSL-3 upgrade (autoclaves, fume hoods, waste handling) (#10), and seed budget for neutralization R&D projects (#28).
Emergency Fund Seed $1.0M
[#18] One-time seed for emergency incident response reserve and rapid covert operations (mid-range chosen).
Containment Policy Development $40K
[#30] Initial SOP development, documentation, and initial training material creation.
Background Checks Initial $30K
[#7] Initial background/security clearance, psychological evaluations for ~10 personnel (mid-range of provided estimate).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.7M/yr
Staff Wages $1.6M/yr
[#5, #6, #15] Salaries and benefits for baseline 24/7 security (4 guards) and an on-call rapid response team plus a dedicated scientific team (marine biologists/veterinarians/geneticists); aggregated per-note salary estimates.
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
[#8, #12, #13, #14, #23, #26, #28] Ongoing research and monitoring: digitization storage/cataloging (#8), operations/maintenance for ROVs/AUVs (#12), satellite/aerial subscriptions and imagery access (#13), GPS/tagging replacements and telemetry upkeep (#14), forensic sequencing and computational biology budget (#23), long-term ecological monitoring (#26), and continuing neutralization R&D costs while active (#28).
Logistics And Transport $820K/yr
[#11, #17, #20] Marine response/vessel operations if owned (#11), annualized contingency for marine salvage/disposal contracts and incident retrieval (#17), and budget for secure transports per year (convoy/air/escort) (#20).
Cover Story And Legal $450K/yr
[#19, #24, #25] Diplomatic/legal/cover-up retainers and budgets (#19), public-relations/media management baseline (#24), and legal compliance/liability retainer (#25).
Facilities Maintenance $232K/yr
[#2, #3, #4, #10] HVAC and archival environmental control utilities and upkeep (#2), CCTV/recording/storage maintenance (#3), access-control system maintenance (#4), and ongoing BSL-3 facility operations/certification/utility overhead (#10).
Emergency Fund Replenishment $200K/yr
[#18] Annual replenishment to maintain a ready incident-response reserve and insurance-like fund for rapid covert expenditures.
Redundancy Operations $125K/yr
[#27] Operations and custody-splitting costs for maintaining a secondary secure storage site and related logistics.
Supplies And Consumables $44K/yr
[#9, #16, #21, #22, #29] Consumables for controlled experiments (#9), euthanasia training/consumables (#16), archival conservation supplies (#21), research consumables (inks/overlays) (#22), and staff psychological support services (#29).
Training And Drills $30K/yr
[#30] Recurring containment policy training, drills, and periodic audits.
Background Checks Rechecks $5K/yr
[#7] Annual re-checks and psychological re-evaluations for cleared personnel.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.7M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal year with steady-state containment and routine research/monitoring; no significant marine incidents or international exposure.
no_instance_manifestations in open ocean no large salvage or diplomatic events routine research activity only
🚨 Minor Incident $5.2M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized marine manifestation requiring short-term response, limited salvage/charter, and modest legal/PR work.
small open-water instance detected charter of response vessel and limited salvage minor PR/legal containment
🚨 Major Marine Manifestation $7.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Significant multi-day marine manifestation requiring dedicated vessel operations, large salvage, extended research and international coordination.
large or multiple instances in open water extensive salvage/disposal operations heightened international/diplomatic engagement
🚨 Catastrophic International Incident $14.7M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Major high-profile incident with large-scale salvage/disposal, international legal/compensation costs, and emergency large R&D scale-up.
massive manifestation / public discovery incident in foreign territorial waters with diplomatic fallout long-term international legal actions and large salvage
👥 Personnel 18 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#5] Four guards to provide 24/7 onsite coverage and shift rotations as specified.
Rapid Response / MTF 6 [#6] On-call armed intervention team (shared or dedicated) for breach response and escalation.
Research Scientist (marine biologist / geneticist / veterinarian / lab tech) 6 [#15, #23] Dedicated scientific staff for characterization, sequencing, and operational oversight (count reflects 4–8 specialists in analyst notes).
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#2, #10] Facility/Biosafety engineer for vault and BSL-3 maintenance and HVAC/environmental systems.
Administrative Staff / Site Director 1 [#19, #25] Administrative and legal liaison support to manage contracts, cover-story coordination, and interagency communications.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items were provided as ranges and several choices (owning a vessel vs chartering, BSL-3 split between facility and equipment, size of contingency funds) materially affect totals; mid-range selections produce a reasonable but not precise estimate, hence medium confidence.
← SCP-3135 ↑ All SCPs SCP-3137 →