SCP-3203 Thaumiel ~ medium confidence
SCP-3203
Expected annual
$1.7M
One-time setup
$2.5M
Annual recurring
$1.6M
Personnel
5
Initial one-time containment and cover setup is substantial (~$2.48M) driven by legal contingency, shell-entity and redundancy setup; ongoing annual operations run about $1.61M/yr driven by staff wages, legal/compliance, counterintelligence and transaction/logistics costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.5M
Contingency Legal Defense $1.0M
[#13] Baseline contingency reserve for litigation, fines, emergency settlements, and extreme mitigation measures.
Shell Companies Setup $300K
[#4] Incorporation and setup of front entities and nominee accounts across jurisdictions (network of ~10–30 entities).
Equipment $275K
[#10, #11, #21] IT security/transaction terminals and secure ledger development ($100k + $150k) and regulatory integration tooling one-time ($25k).
Legal Retainer $250K
[#2] One-time legal retainer for Swiss/international counsel to be available in crises.
Redundancy Accounts Setup $200K
[#20] Setup of alternate anomalous access plans, crypto/escrow wrappers and legal wrappers.
Cash Seeding Initial Capitalization $200K
[#23] Seed deposits and initial capitalization for front entities and vendor relationships.
Facilities $150K
[#9, #16] Secure storage/vault retrofit and initial physical security hardening costs (vault setup ~$50k + hardening ~$100k).
Cover Misinformation Setup $100K
[#14] One-time setup of cover stories, falsified reports, and initial media/contractor payments.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.6M/yr
Staff Wages $460K/yr
[#1] Salaries for dedicated financial operations team: 1senior financial officer, 2 accountants, 1 compliance officer, 1 funds-operations clerk (~$460k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $270K/yr
[#12, #19, #25] Forensic/investigative work (~$100k/yr), dedicated operational research into mechanism (~$150k/yr), and internal audit/oversight (~$20k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $260K/yr
[#2, #3, #5, #14] Recurring legal counsel (~$100k/yr), external AML/compliance advisory (~$100k/yr), shell entities maintenance/bookkeeping (~$40k/yr), and cover maintenance (~$20k/yr).
Counterintelligence And Security Ops $200K/yr
[#24] Ongoing CI/security operations, surveillance, and investigative monitoring (~$200k/yr start level).
Logistics And Transport $140K/yr
[#7, #8, #22] Transaction/FX fees (~$20k/yr), armored transport/couriers (~$100k/yr), and currency-hedging/treasury fees (~$20k/yr).
It Maintenance And Hosting $60K/yr
[#10, #11] Ongoing IT security, transaction-monitoring hosting, and secure-ledger maintenance (~$60k/yr).
Accounting Integration Overhead $60K/yr
[#17] Administrative reconciliation, bookkeeping, and vendor management overhead (~2–3% of processed funds; estimated ~$60k/yr at baseline volumes).
Training And Vetting $50K/yr
[#15] Background checks, OPSEC training, and clearance renewals for personnel (~$50k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr
[#6, #26] Swiss bank account nominal fees/relationship maintenance (~$5k/yr) plus miscellaneous/admin/travel (~$25k/yr).
Regulatory Monitoring $30K/yr
[#21] Subscriptions and continuous AML/CTF regulation monitoring (~$30k/yr) after one-time integration.
Facilities Maintenance $27K/yr
[#9, #16] Vault rent/maintenance (~$12k/yr) and physical-security maintenance (~$15k/yr).
Insurance $25K/yr
[#18] Cash-in-transit, liability, and D&O insurance (~$25k/yr at mid-range insured values).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.6M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful operations with regular withdrawals and no major legal or exposure events.
no external scrutiny routine withdrawals no major investigations
🚨 Minor Incident $2.0M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline
Targeted inquiry or suspicious flag requiring elevated legal action, short-term forensic investigations, and temporary operational ramp-up.
bank questions/regulator inquiry localized leak or investigative journalism
🚨 Major Breach $3.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Account freezing or public exposure leading to heavy litigation, large emergency settlements/bribes, replacement of access pathways and large CI operations.
bank freeze regulatory enforcement action public attribution/exposure
👥 Personnel 5 total
Role Count Notes
Senior Financial Officer (Level-4) 1 [#1] Oversees access, withdrawals and budgeting.
Accountant 2 [#1] Handles reconciliation and bookkeeping for disbursements.
Compliance Officer 1 [#1] Manages AML/CTR avoidance strategy and compliance oversight.
Funds-Operations Clerk 1 [#1] Executes scheduled withdrawals and maintains chain-of-custody.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates follow analyst-provided ranges and concrete staffing lists, but many costs scale with transfer volumes and adversarial pressure; legal, CI and contingency costs are highly scenario-dependent, so uncertainty is moderate.
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