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SCP-3336 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3336
Expected annual
$10.3M
One-time setup
$5.9M
Annual recurring
$9.6M
Personnel
25
One-time startup and remediation costs are approximately $5.9M driven by fatality payouts, risk-reserve capitalization, lab outfitting and safety retrofits; recurring annual operations run about $9.64M/year driven primarily by research staffing, MTF operations, contingency reserve funding and monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.9M
Fatality Payouts $2.4M
[#15] One-time death benefit payouts / settlements for 12 deceased Foundation personnel (~$200k per fatality = $2.4M).
Risk Reserve Buffer $1.5M
[#24] One-time increase to actuarial / internal risk reserve buffer (midpoint chosen from $1–2M estimate).
Facilities $700K
[#11, #17] One-time secure server/vault and structural/safety retrofits for affected labs (server + vault ~$200k; lab safety retrofits/upgrades for two impacted labs ~$500k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#13] BSL-2/3 lab tooling and safety outfitting for handling biological samples (~$500k).
Equipment $320K
[#2, #4, #5, #9, #19] Field station hardware and comms, vehicle purchase, on-site surveillance kit, secure storage/autoinjectors, and drone fleet (sat terminal/solar/shelter/field gear ~$60k; vehicle purchase ~$50k; cameras/install ~$10k; secure storage & autoinjectors ~$100k; drone fleet sensors ~$100k).
One Time Public Relations $300K
[#16] One-time emergency PR / counter-narrative seeding and related immediate legal/communications costs (~$300k).
Forensic One Time $150K
[#14] One-time major investigative expenses for forensic response (~$150k).
Initial Cultural Compensation $5K
[#6] One-time cultural gifts / initial compensation for Bayarsaikhan family (~$5k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $9.6M/yr
Global Contingency Fund $5.0M/yr
[#18] Annual reserve / contingency recommended to be held to respond to repeat events or surges (~$5M/yr, #18).
Staff Wages $2.4M/yr
[#1, #7, #8, #10, #12, #15] Salaries and direct personnel costs: monitoring agent total compensation and allowances (~$145k/yr, #1), local interpreter/liaison (~$20k/yr, #7), MTF Rho-11 team salaries and staffing (~$840k/yr, #8), social/press analysts (~$200k/yr, #10), research team salaries (~$1.1M/yr, #12), and recurring recruitment/training replacement costs (~$120k/yr, #15).
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
[#10, #11, #12, #14, #21, #22, #23, #25] Non-salary recurring research/monitoring costs: monitoring software/cloud processing (~$130k/yr, #10), hosting/cloud compute and backups (~$50k/yr, #11), research fieldwork and consumables (~$400k/yr, #12), ongoing forensic investigation budget (~$200k/yr, #14), translation and dataset purchases (~$100k/yr, #21), public health cooperation contracts (~$150k/yr, #22), psychological care (~$50k/yr, #23), and annual audits/oversight (~$90k/yr, #25).
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#16] Legal retainer, government liaison and narrative management retainer/operations (~$500k/yr, #16).
Logistics And Transport $200K/yr
[#20] International travel and deputized field investigator expenses (deployments, travel, per diem, ~$200k/yr, #20).
Insurance And Risk Reserve Premiums $200K/yr
[#24] Recurring incremental premiums / internal risk capital costs (~$200k/yr, #24).
Facilities Maintenance $67K/yr
[#4, #5, #17, #19] Annual maintenance and small recurring infrastructure costs: vehicle fuel/maintenance/insurance (~$5k/yr, #4), on-site surveillance maintenance/parts (~$2k/yr, #5), annual safety training/drills (~$50k/yr, #17), drone maintenance/consumables (~$10k/yr, #19).
Supplies And Consumables $53K/yr
[#3, #9] Consumables and recurring supplies: continuous satellite/data service (~$3k/yr, #3) and recurring amnestic production/purchase and associated administration (~$50k/yr, #9).
Veterinary And Compensation $25K/yr
[#6] Recurring veterinary care and family stipend/goodwill payments (~$5k/yr vet + ~$20k/yr stipend, #6).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $9.6M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with ongoing monitoring, research, MTF readiness and annual contingency replenishment; no major repeat events.
no_repeat_event routine_research_and_monitoring standard_MTF_activity
🚨 Minor Incident $10.1M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized repeat or limited synchronous event requiring short deployments, extra travel, limited emergency operations and increased amnestic/forensic usage.
localized_repeat_sneeze regional_casualties emergency_field_deployments
🚨 Major Breach $17.6M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Significant repeat/global event or a severe escalation that causes mass casualties, multiple facility incidents and major legal/compensation obligations.
global_repeat_event multiple_lab_accidents large-scale_casualty_and_liability
👥 Personnel 25 total
Role Count Notes
Field Agent / Monitoring Agent 1 [#1] Agent Sean Bat (continuous stationing with Bayarsaikhan family).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#8] MTF Rho-11 team (8 personnel as stated for operational investigations).
Epidemiologist 3 [#12] Part of multidisciplinary research team (3 epidemiologists as budgeted).
Data Scientist 2 [#12] Part of research team (2 data scientists as budgeted).
Biologist 2 [#12] Part of research team (2 biologists as budgeted).
Veterinarian / Medical Officer 1 [#12] One veterinarian included in research staffing and liaison with Bayarsaikhan herd.
Anthropologist 1 [#12] Cultural/anthropological research staff (1 as budgeted).
Intelligence Analyst / Social Media Analyst 4 [#10] 3–4 full-time analysts for press/social monitoring (budgeted at ~$200k/yr).
Interpreter / Cultural Liaison 1 [#7] Local language/cultural liaison contractor to assist communications and permits.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#5, #19] Technical/maintenance support for field equipment, drones and remote systems.
Administrative Staff 1 [#10, #25] Oversight, administration and coordination for audits, travel and liaison.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and plausible cost bases, producing a concerted estimate; however the anomalous nature of SCP-3336 (unknown recurrence risk and contingent liabilities) creates substantial uncertainty around scenario frequencies and extreme-cost tail events.
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