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SCP-3438 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3438
Expected annual
$174K
One-time setup
$106K
Annual recurring
$172K
Personnel
17
Estimated one-time setup costs are moderate (~$106,000) driven by surveillance, comms and staging; annual recurring costs are higher (~$172,200/yr) driven primarily by personnel wages, legal/cover retainers, research, contingency and insurance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $106K
Equipment $73K
[#7, #9, #10, #12, #14] One-time purchase of surveillance hardware (thermal/IR/PTZ cameras and hardened housings), communications hardware and repeaters, backup generators and cabling, capable drones, and one-time IT/data archival setup.
Cover Story Setup $12K
[#1, #16] One-time legal/cover documentation, MOUs and initial PR/cover materials to establish the 'landscaping renovations' narrative and municipal agreements.
Temporary Fencing And Barriers $10K
[#8] Purchase of temporary fencing, lockable gates, barricades and related hardware for perimeter control.
Training Setup $6K
[#17] One-time setup costs for amnestic administration course design, certification materials and initial instructor fees.
Lowfreq Public Manipulation One Time $3K
[#25] Occasional one-time cultural/PR operations (seeding stories, small grants) as needed.
Amnestic Storage $2K
[#5] Secure storage setup for Class-A amnestics (refrigeration/secure cabinet, inventory controls).
Facilities $0
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Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
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Vehicles Purchase $0
[#11] Purchase option for vehicles (3 vans @ $25k–$40k each) not selected in baseline (rental used); set to 0 for baseline capital.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $172K/yr
Research And Monitoring $30K/yr
[#15] Ongoing science/analysis allocation for temporal anomaly study (0.1–0.5 FTE senior researcher + technicians and associated operating costs).
Cover Story And Legal $30K/yr
[#1, #2, #16, #20, #23, #25] Annual municipal permit renewals and liaison (item #1), cover landscaping contractor payments (item #2), legal retainer/PR/cover maintenance (item #16), small goodwill/cover payments (item #20), public landscaping restoration (item #23), and low-frequency cultural cover allocations (item #25 annualized).
Staff Wages $28K/yr
[#3, #4, #21] Night-shift security personnel (item #3, allocated cost ~$12,500/yr), tactical team & medics on-call (item #4, ~$11,000/yr), and part-time administrative reporting support (item #21, ~$4,000/yr).
Insurance Reserve $25K/yr
[#22] Annual insurance premium or reserve for civil liabilities and potential legal exposure.
Contingency Fund $20K/yr
[#19] Reserved annual contingency for unexpected emergencies, replacements, or legal/medical spikes.
Facilities Maintenance $12K/yr
[#13, #24, #10] On-site staging/storage lease and small-unit fit-out costs (item #13), amortized periodic hardware replacement/upgrades (item #24), plus minor power/fuel operational expense (item #10).
Supplies And Consumables $7K/yr
[#5, #6, #8] Annual amnestic consumables buffer and compounding (item #5), medical supplies and PPE/biohazard disposal (item #6), and per-use maintenance/consumables for temporary barriers/deployment (item #8).
Logistics And Transport $7K/yr
[#11, #12] Vehicle rental/transport for events (item #11, baseline rental ~$3,000/yr) and drone maintenance/operator costs (item #12, ~$2,000/yr), plus miscellaneous transport costs.
Surveillance Maintenance $5K/yr
[#7] Annual maintenance, replacement parts, and support for surveillance cameras, housings and recording systems.
Psychological Aftercare $4K/yr
[#18] Civilian follow-up counseling budgets and staff EAP allocation for stress exposure (item #18).
Training And Simulations $3K/yr
[#17] Annual refresher training, simulations and certifications for medics/agents.
Data Handling $2K/yr
[#14] Recurring costs for secure storage, encryption key rotation, archival audits, and IT support for footage/logs.
Communications $500/yr
[#9] Airtime, licensing, spare batteries and small recurring comms expenses.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $172K/yr
94.5% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with standard closing nights, routine operations, and no major incidents.
routine nightly closures scheduled maintenance normal personnel rotations
🚨 Minor Incident $192K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$20K vs baseline
One or a few unauthorized entrants leading to medical treatment, several amnestic administrations, increased legal/admin time and small equipment repair.
trespasser injury or multiple entrants higher-than-expected amnestic use minor equipment damage
🚨 Major Breach $372K/yr
0.5% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Significant public exposure, lawsuit(s), multiple casualties or equipment sabotage requiring large-scale legal, PR, medical and infrastructure response.
public exposure / media leak mass-casualty or high-profile legal action deliberate sabotage of surveillance/comm systems
👥 Personnel 17 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 [#3] Night-shift plainclothes patrol personnel assigned to nightly closures (10 personnel allocated to rotations).
Tactical Team 4 [#4] On-call tactical apprehension staff allocated for closure nights.
Medical Officer 2 [#4] Two medics on-call per closure night for amnestic administration and immediate care.
Administrative Staff 1 [#21] Part-time admin for incident reporting, logs and liaison; headcount reflects a single FTE-equivalent allocation (part-time).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and realistic ranges, but many items (fictional Class-A amnestic costs, insurance, research staffing) are uncertain and range widely; chosen figures are reasonable mid-to-conservative estimates.
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