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SCP-3539 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3539
Expected annual
$5.4M
One-time setup
$9.6M
Annual recurring
$5.3M
Personnel
13
One-time setup and specialized research instrumentation drive upfront costs (~$9.6M including reserves); recurring annual operations (security, specialist staff, monitoring, contingency provisioning) are the main ongoing expense at roughly $5.28M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $9.6M
Insurance Reserve One Time $2.8M
[#18] Insurance / liability reserve and legal defense fund (one‑time set aside to cover large accidental damage/third‑party claims).
Expansion Reserve One Time $2.8M
[#28] Immediate reserve for capability expansion if SCP begins manifesting larger aircraft (contingency reserve).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.4M
[#12, #22] Initial experimental/test instrumentation and specialized temporal‑displacement research capital (high‑speed cameras, multispectral, time‑resolved sensors, exotic lab equipment).
Facilities $1.4M
[#1] Blast‑resistant storage vault construction/retrofit (reinforced concrete, ballistic doors, interlocks, CCTV hardwiring).
Equipment $734K
[#2, #3, #9, #10, #15] RF isolation / Faraday enclosure and RF filters (#2), secure evidence/handset disable kit & battery storage (#3), radar/sensor procurement and integration (#9 one‑time portion), drone fleet procurement (#10 one‑time portion), communications & secure recordkeeping one‑time setup (#15).
Decommissioning Reserve $600K
[#25] Decommissioning / replacement contingency reserve for cell rebuild or equipment replacement.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $5.3M/yr
Staff Wages $1.4M/yr
[#5, #7, #8] On‑site security staff (8 guards + benefits), 3 senior temporal‑displacement researchers (approval authority), dedicated containment custodian / onsite scientist and technician.
Armed Response Team $750K/yr
[#6] Armed rapid response / recovery team readiness (training, equipment amortization, vehicles, fuel, exercises).
Research And Monitoring $665K/yr
[#12, #22, #21, #24] Ongoing experimental/test ops budget and consumables (#12), recurring temporal research budget (#22), baseline incident forensics (#21), data analysis & modelling/software licensing (#24).
Cover Story And Legal $550K/yr
[#16] Legal, cover‑story, public affairs, liaison costs and potential payouts to maintain plausible narratives following sightings/incidents.
Recovery Contingency Fund $500K/yr
[#13] Annual provisioning to maintain a $1M–$3M contingency reserve for priority re‑acquisition missions.
Test Range Contract $300K/yr
[#11] Long‑term access / coordination with restricted airspace / military range for testing (annual contracted cost).
Expansion Risk Premium $300K/yr
[#28] Annual risk premium for potential capability expansion (larger aircraft manifestations) and associated higher operating costs.
Aviation Liaison $190K/yr
[#17] Personnel and contractual fees for FAA/DoD/airport liaison and coordination (TFRs, range access coordination).
Drone Operations And Maintenance $130K/yr
[#10] Drone fleet operators, maintenance, batteries, spare parts, training.
Emergency Medical $125K/yr
[#19] Medics/EMT readiness for tests/boardings, psychological care and treatment budget.
Miscellaneous Overhead $90K/yr
[#27] Utilities, site insurance portion, administrative support, procurement overhead.
Training And Drills $88K/yr
[#20] Regular training, simulated extractions, anti‑tamper exercises.
Logistics And Transport $55K/yr
[#14] Transport logistics for moving SCP (armored vehicles, escorts) averaged per year.
Radar And Sensor Maintenance $38K/yr
[#9] Avionics / aerial surveillance maintenance, data connectivity, sensor upkeep.
Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr
[#23] Consumables, PPE, batteries, drone batteries/parts, fuel, seals, tags.
Public Safety Operations $25K/yr
[#26] Public safety response, temporary evacuation, scene management averaged per year.
Facilities Maintenance $16K/yr
[#4] Vault maintenance, environmental controls (power, HVAC, fire suppression), seal/interlock inspections, annual safety certification.
Communications Maintenance $15K/yr
[#15] Recurring encrypted comms, secure backups, CCTV archiving and offsite storage costs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $5.3M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine testing, maintenance, and staffing costs only.
no unauthorized activations only scheduled tests and maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $5.7M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline
Localized unauthorized activation or small public sighting requiring investigation, limited recovery / legal action.
unauthorized activation small public exposure minor recovery / forensic response
🚨 Major Recovery Operation $7.3M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Area compromise or overseas loss requiring a Priority‑A recovery mission with special forces, transport and intensive legal/cover operations.
Area‑383 compromise international recovery required priority A re‑acquisition
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $10.3M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Large‑scale uncontrolled activation or breach resulting in multi‑million remediation, replacement and legal expenditures.
major breach widespread public exposure multi‑asset recovery & replacement
👥 Personnel 13 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#5] 24/7 armed guard coverage (3 shifts) for vault security.
Research Scientist (Senior) 3 [#7] Senior temporal‑displacement specialists required to authorize use.
Containment Custodian / Onsite Scientist 1 [#8] Fulltime custodian scientist responsible for day‑to‑day access control and logs.
Technician / Technical Staff 1 [#8] Technical technician supporting instrumentation and maintenance.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes give detailed line items and ranges, allowing a reasoned estimate, but many items (incident frequency, size of recovery operations, reserve levels) have wide ranges and high tail risk due to anomalous/time‑displacement effects.
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