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SCP-3617 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3617
Expected annual
$7.1M
One-time setup
$4.0M
Annual recurring
$6.9M
Personnel
34
Estimated one-time setup costs are approximately $4.02M driven by facility build-out, research lab setup, and equipment; recurring annual costs are approximately $6.895M, driven primarily by staff wages, incident-response operations, and contingency reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.0M
Facilities $1.5M
[#3] Secure medical containment wing build/upgrade (negative-pressure rooms, isolation, CCTV). Midpoint estimate of $500k–$2.5M used.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.1M
[#4, #20, #26] BSL-3 lab build-out/cold-storage and misc lab capital (freezers, LN2, microscopes, centrifuges, autoclave). Sum of midpoints for lab build, archival freezers, and misc instruments.
Equipment $862K
[#5, #6, #18, #23] Large-specimen containment hardware, purpose-built transport vehicles, secure communications equipment, and monitoring equipment. Aggregated midpoints from listed ranges.
Decommissioning Upgrade Reserve $500K
[#30] Periodic decommissioning/upgrade reserve (plan for replacement every 5–10 years). Midpoint of recommended $200k–$1M allocated as one-time planning reserve.
Legal Setup And Front Company Creation $50K
[#17] One-time setup cost for legal/forgery/front-company creation (startup portion of line #17). Conservative one-time setup chosen from larger combined setup+recurring range.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.9M/yr
Staff Wages $3.0M/yr
[#1, #2, #12, #27] Salaries and benefits: MTF field-team ($1,560,000), medical/support staff ($720,000), dedicated research team ($495,000), amnesticist/operator overhead ($250,000). Midpoint/selected values from provided ranges.
Emergency Contingency Fund $1.0M/yr
[#14] Contingency reserve for rare large removals/structural response. Chosen reserve within recommended $500k–$2M.
Incident Response Operations $800K/yr
[#13] Field deployment operational costs (fuel, accommodation, overtime, cordons). Selected conservative operational tempo assumption yielding ~$800k/yr from range $40k–$5M.
Cover Story And Legal $630K/yr
[#15, #16, #17, #22] Secure records/ethics oversight (~$30k), cover-story/PR operations (~$200k), ongoing legal/forgery maintenance (~$100k), insurance/financial reserves (~$300k). Aggregated midpoints.
Supplies And Consumables $312K/yr
[#7, #8, #10] Field PPE and decontamination kits (~$65k), amnestic drugs/administration (~$205k), routine medical consumables (~$42.5k). Aggregated midpoints.
Research And Monitoring $260K/yr
[#11, #26, #28] Sample analysis/sequencing (~$150k), misc lab maintenance/consumables (~$30k), epidemiological/covert monitoring (~$80k).
Patient Housing And Care $240K/yr
[#9] Food, utilities, security, and housekeeping for held hosts: assumed average 20 hosts/year × 6-week stays at midpoint cost.
Psychological Care $200K/yr
[#25] Counseling and rehabilitation for hosts post-expulsion; selected mid-range annual load.
Logistics And Transport $100K/yr
[#6] Vehicle maintenance and insurance for recovery/transport fleet (midpoint of $50k–$150k).
Industrial Incineration Reserve $100K/yr
[#24] Annual reserve/contract access fee for industrial incineration or contracted destruction (~$100k/yr reserve).
Facilities Maintenance $75K/yr
[#4, #20, #26] Recurring lab/building maintenance and minor equipment upkeep: BSL lab maintenance ($60k), long-term storage monitoring allocation ($15k).
Training And Certification $60K/yr
[#21] Regular drills, biohazard handling, amnestic administration training (midpoint of $20k–$150k).
Energy Costs $40K/yr
[#29] Continuous power for refrigeration/negative-pressure rooms and redundancy (selected midpoint).
Waste Disposal $20K/yr
[#19] Biohazard waste disposal/incineration estimated from per-kg rates and expected specimen throughput.
Monitoring Maintenance $18K/yr
[#23] Maintenance and consumables for CCTV, patient vitals, portable imaging (~$5k–$30k range).
Secure Communications Services $15K/yr
[#18] Recurring service/data costs for encrypted radios/satellite links and server hosting ($5k–$25k range).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.9M/yr
72.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, no major structural events or large public exposure.
routine_field_recoveries regular_research_activity standard training/certification
🚨 Minor Incident $7.4M/yr
25.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Elevated field activity year with several larger-than-average recoveries, extra deployments, and higher amnestic/cover operations.
clustered expulsions increased deployment tempo higher amnestic usage
🚨 Major Large Specimen Event $8.4M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Rare catastrophic removal of a large (≈14 m) specimen requiring structural entry, excavation, industrial disposal, and expanded public suppression.
14m specimen expulsion structural excavation/municipal cordon industrial disposal/major legal exposure
👥 Personnel 34 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 20 [#1] MTF-Phi-Eolh rapid-response operatives; count inferred from salary pool (midpoint staffing within 12–24 range).
Medical Officer 8 [#2] Medics, nurses, on-call surgeons/veterinarians attached to containment facility (4–8 range; upper-mid chosen consistent with salary allocation).
Research Scientist / Technician 4 [#12] Dedicated small research team (PI + postdocs/techs), chosen within 3–5 range.
Amnesticist / Operator 2 [#8, #27] Specialized personnel for amnestic administration and oversight; small team reflected in amnestic/operator overhead budget.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of wide analyst ranges and reasonable assumptions about operational tempo; many line items are high-variance (contingency, incident-response), so medium confidence is appropriate.
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