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SCP-3632 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3632
Expected annual
$20.7M
One-time setup
$839.2M
Annual recurring
$16.3M
Personnel
72
One-time Foundation operational capital is dominated by a recommended program endowment ($300M) and an optional dedicated space telescope ($500M); total one-time Foundation spend is $839.2M. Recurring Foundation operational costs are ~$16.31M/yr, dominated by staff wages and cyber/embedded operations. Systemic economic impact in the event of a global memetic outbreak is orders of magnitude larger (estimated tens of trillions) and is reported separately as non-Foundation damage; this corrects the prior report by removing an un-actionable planetary-defense line-item and by explicitly itemizing large capital and outbreak-response costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $839.2M
Dedicated Space Telescope $500.0M
Contingency capital for a small-to-medium dedicated space observatory (spacecraft bus, optics, integration and launch procurement). Analyst range was $300M-$700M; selected midpoint $500M and the line is itemized as program-level capital (optical payload, bus, integration, and launch). This item is optional and triggered only if terrestrial denial/falsification or opportunistic follow-ups are deemed insufficient.
Endowment $300.0M
Program continuity endowment to underwrite monitoring and institutional memory for multi-century timeframe (recommended midpoint from analyst note #4). This is a Foundation capital allocation (one-time) to avoid reliance on ad-hoc funding over centuries.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $15.5M
High-fidelity interstellar-probe and contingency engineering study ($15,000,000) plus xenobiology/remote-biosignature laboratory buildout and first-run consumables ($500,000). This funds modelling and lab capability described in analyst notes #9 and #12.
Civilian Suppression Reserve $10.0M
One-time reserve for major civilian dataset buyouts, litigation or institutional-level suppression efforts (analyst note #21). Treated as capped contingency spend.
Leak Incident Fund $5.0M
One-time reserve to seed very large leak responses (analyst note #15; retained as an incident-capital fund rather than recurring retainer).
Equipment $2.5M
HPC cluster + initial archival hardware ($350k), communications & crypto hardware ($250k), MTF training/security gear ($1,000k), rapid-deployment kit ($250k), archival digitization equipment ($100k), one-time covert cyber tooling ($500k). These items are grouped here to avoid double-counting; individual components are listed in the internal procurement breakdown in the program dossier.
Diplomacy Reserve $2.0M
One-time diplomatic negotiation reserve for sensitive state-level arrangements (analyst note #19).
Psych Scenario Fund $2.0M
One-time scenario-development fund for psychological/cultural mitigation planning (analyst note #22).
Cover Creation Training $1.0M
One-time deep-cover creation and training for embedded operatives to be placed in civilian space agencies (analyst note #5).
Facilities $750K
Site-309 WART facility capital refresh and emergency spares (mirror recoating, environmental control work, optical alignment spares). Matches analyst note #2.
Archival Multi Site Setup $500K
Initial multi-site archival vault setup and redundancy deployment (analyst note #18).
Planetary Defense Attempt $0
Estimate set to $0—active physical deflection or containment of a ~440 km mean-radius planetoid is effectively beyond current feasible Foundation or global capability. Analyst note #10 flagged this as unimplementable; the Foundation will not budget a practicable 'planetary defense' procurement because the task is not physically actionable. Instead, the Foundation budgets monitoring, information-control, contingency planning, and engineering studies only (those items are costed above).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.3M/yr
Staff Wages $9.3M/yr
Fully-burdened recurring payroll for program staff: 1 telescope operator ($80k), 1 observatory astronomer ($120k), 2 astrophysicists ($140k each), 1 orbit modeller + 1 data analyst ($120k each), 10 cyber specialists ($150k each), ~30 embedded operatives/deep-cover agents ($150k each), 3 xenobiology scientists ($140k each), 3 historians/linguists ($110k each), 20 security/MTF staff ($90k each). Total headcount 72; salaries shown are fully-burdened annual amounts used to derive staff_wages.
Cyber Ops And Influence $2.0M/yr
Recurring non-payroll budget for covert data-falsification infrastructure, influence operations allowances and operational funds. Salaries for cyber specialists are included under staff_wages; this line covers infrastructure, bribes/cutouts, and operational expenses (analyst note #6).
Cover Story And Legal $1.5M/yr
Legal retainers, PR retainer and controlled-release activity budgets, and routine diplomatic backstops for covert narrative management (analyst notes #15 and #19). Note: in scenarios where global physical consequences are visible and concealment is impossible, this line will be reduced or set to $0 for the duration as described in scenario notes.
Logistics And Transport $1.2M/yr
Recurring MTF logistics, travel for embedded operative rotations, extraction capabilities, and rapid-response travel coordination (~$500k recurring MTF logistics + ~$750k standby rapid-response coordination and transport budget).
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
Non-payroll research budgets including an opportunistic high-resolution observation reserve (JWST/HST–class follow-up budget $1,000,000/yr), software licenses and modelling tools ($20k), and red-team/disclosure-simulation exercises (~$200k/yr).
Psychological Mitigation $500K/yr
Recurring societal-risk studies and coordination funds with allied agencies for long-term mitigation planning (analyst note #22).
Supplies And Consumables $240K/yr
HPC cluster power/maintenance ($50k), archival cold-storage power & maintenance ($20k), xenobiology consumables & small lab consumables ($100k), routine WART data processing/electricity ($70k).
Facilities Maintenance $230K/yr
WART optical and mechanical maintenance, mirror recoating amortized, site environmental controls and building overhead (~$200k WART parts & maintenance + $30k amortized capital refresh).
Communications Infrastructure $100K/yr
Recurring secure communications bandwidth, satellite uplink/downlink leasing, certificate & re-key cycles, and maintenance of crypto hardware (analyst note #16).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.3M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal operational year: routine monitoring (30-day WART cadence), embedded operations, cyber/influence, research and archival maintenance, with no major public exposures or capital projects.
routine_monitoring no_public_exposure no_major_capital_projects
🚨 Minor Incident $18.3M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized or transient anomaly (unexpected anomalous acceleration, credible civilian detection of imagery) requiring emergency high-resolution follow-up, targeted legal/PR activity, and a short operational surge for coordinated observations.
unexpected_anomalous_acceleration high_resolution_detection limited_civilian_observation_report
🚨 Major Breach $226.3M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$210.0M vs baseline
Widespread memetic/cognitohazard outbreak (Sitchin-1 style contagion) resulting in runaway civilian behavioural contamination and collapse of concealment viability; Foundation response focuses on personnel/survivor protection, sustainment of secure sites (incl. lunar shelters), and emergency research rather than attempting to conceal an already-visible global event.
widespread_memetic_contagion visible_global_behavioral_changes civilizational_disruption
👥 Personnel 72 total
Role Count Notes
Telescope Operator 1 WART imaging operator (30-day imaging cadence).
Observatory Astronomer 1 Observatory-level scientist responsible for optical calibration and imaging campaign planning.
Research Scientist (Astrophysicist) 2 Image analysis, spectral modelling and orbital-dynamics analysis team (astrophysicists).
Orbit Modeller / Data Analyst 2 Precision orbital modelling and data analysis for anomalous-velocity tracking.
Cyber Specialist 10 Covert cyber teams for data-falsification, influence operations and infrastructure maintenance (salaries in staff_wages; non-salary ops budget in cyber_ops_and_influence).
Embedded Operative / Deep-cover Agent 30 MTF Omicron-4 embedding program staff placed across major civilian space agencies for observation-denial and data-manipulation tasks.
Xenobiology Scientist 3 Remote biosignature/life-detection lab staff for biosphere and memetic risk assessment.
Historian / Cultural Researcher 3 Historical archive, translation and cultural motif analysis team.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 20 Site & program security, MTF handlers and rapid-response operatives.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation corrects the original Stage 2 report by: (1) removing an un-actionable planetary-defense procurement (set to $0 because active deflection of a ~440 km body is infeasible), (2) itemizing large one-time capital requests (endowment and dedicated telescope) rather than presenting unsubstantiated round figures, and (3) splitting systemic economic impacts from Foundation operational costs and flagging them as low-confidence, order-of-magnitude damage metrics. Recurring payroll estimates were recalculated from explicit headcounts and fully-burdened salary assumptions, raising staff_wages relative to the prior report; outbreak-response spending was modelled as survivability/research/sustainment (feasible for the Foundation) rather than impossible global containment. Remaining uncertainty stems from long time horizons (centuries), memetic effectiveness variance, and the high uncertainty of global-economic damage estimates; hence medium confidence.
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