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SCP-3656 Neutralised ~ medium confidence
SCP-3656
Expected annual
$12.9M
One-time setup
$790.8M
Annual recurring
$2.4M
Personnel
14
One-time capital and optioned remediation dominate costs (total one-time estimate driven by large-scale soil remediation and institutional controls). Baseline recurring operations for containment, monitoring, security and stewardship are modest by comparison at a few-million dollars per year, driven by staff wages, insurance, monitoring and long-term stewardship.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $790.8M
Soil Remediation Full Excavation $500.0M
[#18] Full excavation and off-site disposal of contaminated soil (representative mid-range remediation estimate; optioned, single large one-time cost).
Capping Engineered Cap $190.0M
[#19] Engineered cap (clay/asphalt/concrete) covering entire 5.5 km^2 (mid-range estimate for cap construction).
Opportunity Cost Lost Land Value $68.0M
[#23] Conservative estimate of lost land value/opportunity cost at $50k/acre for ~1,359 acres (economic cost, not necessarily cash outlay).
Contingency Disposal Reserve $20.0M
[#22] Contingency reserve to address disposal site capacity, tipping-fee escalation and interstate arrangements during disposal operations.
Financial Assurance Trust Fund $5.0M
[#12] Seed for required financial assurance / trust fund as regulatory guarantee for future remediation (representative mid-range).
In Situ Remediation Pilot $3.0M
[#20] Pilot program for phytoremediation / in‑situ stabilization (pilot-scale initial program).
Equipment $1.9M
[#2, #3, #6, #8, #9, #16, #21] CCTV/NVRs and install (~$400k), perimeter intrusion/sensor install (~$150k), radiation monitoring fixed stations (~$600k), initial PPE kit-out (~$125k), decontamination/mobile response equipment (~$300k), IT/hardware (~$110k), capital containers for waste (~$200k).
Facilities $1.4M
[#1, #15, #27] Perimeter fencing and gates (~$950k midpoint), power/electrical install (~$150k), demobilization/site transfer seed estimate (~$250k).
Emergency Contingency Seed $1.0M
[#25] One-time seed for emergency contingency fund (recommended reserve).
Regulatory Permitting Initial $275K
[#11] Initial regulatory, permitting and legal compliance setup and fees (mid-range).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $200K
[#7] Initial lab instrumentation and set-up to support environmental sampling and gamma/beta assays (onsite sample prep / QA capabilities).
Archival Mapping Initial $55K
[#26] High-resolution mapping, GIS and archival survey documentation initial production.
Contractor Training Setup $30K
[#17] Initial contractor radiological training / program set-up costs.
Medical Record System $20K
[#10] Initial setup of medical/dosimetry record-keeping system.
Signage And Cover Story Initial $15K
[#5] Initial hazardous-chemical-waste signage and legal review to establish cover story.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.4M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#4] Salaries, benefits and operational costs for security, research and site staff (represents mid-level staffing posture for containment and monitoring).
Research And Monitoring $210K/yr
[#6, #7, #16, #26, #20] Ongoing radiation sensor maintenance/calibration, periodic environmental sampling & lab analysis program, data processing/QA and small pilot follow-up monitoring.
Insurance And Financial Assurance $200K/yr
[#12] Environmental liability insurance premiums and financial-assurance maintenance (excludes one-time trust fund seed).
Long Term Stewardship $200K/yr
[#13] Multi-decade stewardship activities: monitoring reports, records retention, controls and occasional remediation/repairs.
Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr
[#1, #19, #27] Ongoing fence/cap maintenance, occasional structural repairs and site infrastructure upkeep.
In Situ Remediation Ongoing $100K/yr
[#20] Ongoing operational costs if a long-term in-situ or phytoremediation program is pursued (baseline allowance).
Emergency Contingency Topup $100K/yr
[#25] Annual top-up to maintain contingency/reserve for accidental releases, legal claims or urgent remediation.
Grounds Maintenance $85K/yr
[#14] Mowing, tree removal, erosion control and vermin control to protect containment infrastructure.
Cover Story And Legal $83K/yr
[#5, #11, #24] Signage replacement, legal/compliance retainer fees, community liaison and periodic PR/cover-story maintenance.
Contractor Premiums $50K/yr
[#17] Ongoing contractor cost premiums for work on contaminated land (20–50% uplift) averaged annually.
Medical Monitoring $50K/yr
[#10] Ongoing occupational health surveillance, dosimetry record-keeping and medical exams for staff.
Supplies And Consumables $40K/yr
[#8, #9] PPE replacement, calibration consumables, decon/disposal consumables and routine replacements.
Perimeter Monitoring Contract $30K/yr
[#3] External monitoring/maintenance contract for intrusion detection and alarm systems.
Power And Communications $25K/yr
[#15] Electricity/solar maintenance, generator fuel/testing and communications (cell/fiber) operations.
Logistics And Transport $20K/yr
[#15, #21] Routine vehicle fuel/transport for patrols, sampling teams and small mobilizations; large-scale waste transport costs are scenario-dependent.
Data Management And Records Retention $20K/yr
[#16, #26] IT operations, secure backups, cyber-security and records archiving operations.
Cctv Data Storage $10K/yr
[#2] Data storage, telemetry and networking costs for CCTV and sensor telemetry.
Contractor Training Ongoing $10K/yr
[#17] Recurring refresher training and radiological competence maintenance for contractors and temporary staff.
Archival Updates $5K/yr
[#26] Small recurring costs for periodic map/survey updates and archiving maintenance.
Radioactive Waste Transport And Containerization Per Year $0/yr
[#21] Normally zero under a contain-and-monitor posture; large transport/containerization costs arise only during active remediation operations or scenarios.
Disposal Tipping Fees Reserve Per Year $0/yr
[#22] Yearly baseline reserved amount is zero; disposal/tipping fees are scenario-driven and substantial if remediation proceeds.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.4M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal contain-and-monitor year with routine monitoring, patrols, maintenance and stewardship; no major incidents or remediation actions.
no_major_incident routine_monitoring_and_stewardship
🚨 Minor Incident $3.2M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline
Localized breach, trespasser exposure, or small accidental disturbance requiring emergency response, targeted remediation and legal action.
fence_breach localized_contamination_spread vehicle_or_worksite_accident
🚨 Major Remediation $502.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline
Decision or regulatory mandate to pursue full-scale soil excavation and licensed disposal (large-scale remediation project year).
regulatory_mandate availability_of_disposal_capacity decision_to_remediate
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $77.4M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$75.0M vs baseline
Large accidental release, severe weather damage to containment, or wide-area contamination event requiring mass medical response, remediation and legal settlements.
severe_weather_or_structural_failure major_containment_breach large_third-party_exposure
👥 Personnel 14 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#4] Staff for perimeter patrols, alarm response and gate/vehicle operations (24/7 rotation coverage).
Research Scientist 2 [#7, #16] Environmental sampling, lab analysis, data interpretation and reporting.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#11, #13] Oversight, regulatory liaison, stewardship management and executive decisions.
Medical Officer 1 [#10] Occupational health, dosimetry program oversight and medical monitoring.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#15, #9] Infrastructure, power/communications, sensor maintenance and decon equipment upkeep.
Administrative Staff 1 [#5, #24] Records, permitting paperwork, community liaison and cover-story administration.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges for most categories (security, monitoring, remediation options), allowing mid-confidence estimates for recurring and one-time baseline costs. Large uncertainties remain around remediation scope, waste-disposal capacity and regulatory decisions (orders-of-magnitude variance), which lowers confidence for optioned one-time remediation costs.
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