SCP-3802 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3802
Expected annual
$513K
One-time setup
$359K
Annual recurring
$473K
Personnel
3
One-time setup and initial analysis are modest (~$360k) while recurring staff, vivarium testing, and program overhead drive annual costs (~$473k/year). Major costs arise from large field ops, outsourced synthesis, or extensive vivarium campaigns.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $359K
Outsourced Synthesis $150K
[#20] Contracted reverse-engineering/synthesis effort (mid-range estimate for substantial external work).
Field Investigation $60K
[#17] Initial field work and human-intel efforts on PoI 'dado' (domestic or limited international ops, conservative mid-range).
Exposure Contingency Reserve $50K
[#23] One-time contingency reserve for emergency public-exposure mitigation, legal action, or rapid relocation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $20K
[#7] Moderate chemical/biological characterization (GC-MS/LC-MS/NMR/sequencing) and initial lab analysis/setup for first-round testing.
Cover Setup $20K
[#15] One-time robust cover-story setup: fake vendor paperwork, legal setup and initial mimicry materials.
Digital Forensics One Time $20K
[#16] Initial thorough cyber/social-media/darknet investigation to trace 'dado' and takedown campaign setup.
Equipment $10K
[#1, #10, #13] Secondary sealed canister + hard case, new glovebox/bench/glassware or hood modifications, and CCTV/tamper sensors installation equipment (hardware only).
Facilities $8K
[#2, #3] Small hazardous-materials vault/safe installation and one-time climate-controlled cabinet / datalogger installation costs.
Sop And Training $8K
[#18] Professional SOP creation and initial staff hands-on training sessions.
Secure Transport $7K
[#4] Secure courier/armored vehicle and escort for Site-42 → Site-81 domestic move (mid-range estimate).
Redundant Storage One Time $3K
[#12] Duplicate aliquot containment and secure transfer to secondary storage location (hardware/transport).
Emergency Kit One Time $2K
[#19] Purchase of spill kits, neutralizers and emergency containment supplies.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $473K/yr
Staff Wages $258K/yr
[#5, #6] Two dedicated guards ($108k incl. benefits) and one senior research custodian/parapharmacology specialist (~$150k incl. benefits/overhead).
Vivarium Testing Per Campaign $100K/yr
[#8] Cost of a small pilot vivarium test campaign (10 animals) per campaign; baseline assumes one campaign cadence or allocation.
Program Overhead $50K/yr
[#22] Opportunity cost and program-level management overhead allocation.
Insurance Liability $20K/yr
[#24] Internal site-level insurance/liability chargeback allocation.
Exposure Reserve Replenish $10K/yr
[#23] Annual replenishment allocation for the public-exposure/incident contingency fund.
Research And Monitoring $7K/yr
[#7, #21] Recurring follow-up analyses and periodic re-analysis budget (sample checks, occasional contract lab runs).
Cover Story And Legal $7K/yr
[#14, #15] Chain-of-custody recordkeeping, secure archival/backsups and ongoing cover-story/legal liaison maintenance.
Digital Takedown $5K/yr
[#16] Ongoing digital-content mitigation, takedowns and monitoring related to 'dado' traces.
Archival And Reanalysis $5K/yr
[#21] Long-term archiving and scheduled re-analysis (every 2–5 years budgeted annually).
Supplies And Consumables $3K/yr
[#9, #19] PPE, disposables, autoclave bags, labeling, and consumable replenishment for emergency kits and drills.
Facilities Maintenance $2K/yr
[#3, #13, #12] Climate-control monitoring/maintenance, minor CCTV/tamper maintenance, and marginal redundant storage monitoring.
Waste Disposal Per Event $2K/yr
[#11] Routine hazardous/anomalous waste disposal cost allocation (per-year estimate aggregated).
Sop Refreshers $2K/yr
[#18] Occasional refresher trainings and SOP updates.
Cctv Maintenance $1K/yr
[#13] Annual service/maintenance contract and occasional replacement for CCTV and tamper sensors.
Emergency Drills $1K/yr
[#19] Annual drills and consumable replenishment for emergency response kits.
Redundant Storage Monitoring $300/yr
[#12] Marginal recurring monitoring for secondary sample cache (alarms/logging).
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $473K/yr
86.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, monitoring, and occasional small follow-ups; no incidents or large field/research escalations.
no incidents only scheduled testing no large field ops
🚨 Minor Incident $508K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$35K vs baseline
Small containment or disposal incident requiring contractor disposal, limited PR/legal work, and overtime.
small contamination/disposal event local leak or sample compromise
🚨 Major Breach $923K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$450K vs baseline
Significant exposure or breach requiring intensive field response, large legal/PR spend, possible emergency relocation or destruction.
public exposure multi-agency involvement international complications
🚨 Research Scaleup $903K/yr
8.0% probability / year +$430K vs baseline
Decision/year in which Foundation pursues full reverse-engineering or large-scale vivarium campaigns and outsourced synthesis.
approval to resume/expand testing outsourced synthesis contract large vivarium campaigns
👥 Personnel 3 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#5] Two dedicated guards allocated (salary+benefits reflected in staff_wages estimate).
Research Scientist 1 [#6] One senior parapharmacology specialist / custodian responsible for handling and experiment design.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling order-of-magnitude estimates; uncertainty remains around frequency and scale of field ops, likelihood of large-scale synthesis efforts, and policy decisions that drive testing frequency.
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