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SCP-3816 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3816
Expected annual
$3.8M
One-time setup
$8.0M
Annual recurring
$3.6M
Personnel
14
One-time setup and diplomatic costs are significant (notably negotiation and contingency for extraction); recurring annual costs are driven by personnel, local stewardship payments, secure data storage, and O&M/security contracts.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.0M
Contingency Extraction Fund $5.0M
[#27] Reserved fund for forced extraction/dismantling/large-scale covert operations if site seizure or removal is required.
Site Access Negotiation $1.0M
[#1] One-time negotiation/diplomatic fee or retainer to secure clandestine/cooperative access from local authorities.
Equipment $900K
[#4, #5, #10, #22] Hardened consoles and remote-control hardware (#4), secure on-site servers/HSMs and protected transfer hardware (#5), initial spare parts and tooling inventory (#10), and one-time compute/hardware purchases/licenses from #22.
Facilities $500K
[#3, #11, #13] Construction of on-site SCIF/secure room (#3), installation of power stability/backup systems (#11), and physical perimeter security upgrades (#13).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $400K
[#20] One-time buildout/outfitting of a secure remote analysis environment/SCIF for processing imagery and intelligence.
Initial Staff Deployment $100K
[#8] Initial travel, relocation, visas, temporary housing and onboarding for first deployment of Foundation staff.
Cover Media $50K
[#17] One-time creation of cover documentation, seeded datasets, websites, press kits and academic partnerships to support the non-anomalous narrative.
Opportunity Offset Note $0
[#30] Advisory note: potential intelligence exploitation value may offset costs; no direct dollar estimate assigned.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.6M/yr
Staff Wages $1.9M/yr
[#7, #14, #21, #26] Aggregate annual salaries for on-site contingent (site director, astronomers, telescope technician) and security rotation (#7, #14), plus remote analysts/AI engineers (#21) and translators/cultural liaisons (#26).
Site Access Stewardship Payments $500K/yr
[#2] Recurring payments/stipends or funding to maintain cooperation with the observatory and local agencies.
Cover Story And Legal $350K/yr
[#16, #18, #28] Ongoing funding of academic cover projects and outreach (#16), local legal counsel/permits/diplomacy (#18) and retainers/indemnities/crisis PR (#28).
Facilities Maintenance $200K/yr
[#9] Routine mechanical and optical maintenance contracts, spare parts consumption for the telescope, and periodic calibration/overhauls.
Secure Data Archival Capacity $150K/yr
[#6] Ongoing secure storage, backups and cold-storage costs for large-volume imagery and logs.
Censorship And Leak Mitigation $150K/yr
[#19] Monitoring and removal/suppression of media leaks and social media discussions; takedowns and local agent activity.
Compute Maintenance $100K/yr
[#22] Recurring maintenance/cloud fees and software subscription costs associated with analysis hardware/software (#22).
Counter Surveillance Monitoring $80K/yr
[#15] Active counter-surveillance, drone detection, EM scans, tamper-detection monitoring and operator hours.
Generator Fuel And Power Maintenance $50K/yr
[#12] Fuel for backup generators, UPS battery replacement, and periodic generator servicing.
Supplies And Consumables $40K/yr
[#25] Consumables, office costs, local operating expenses, vehicles, fuel and petty cash for site operations.
Local Goodwill And Minor Payments $40K/yr
[#29] Small recurring local expenditures for goodwill, hospitality, and low-level informant costs.
Training Opspec Drills $30K/yr
[#24] Regular OPSEC training, containment drills, emergency shutdown and disclosure response exercises.
Medical Psych Surveillance $25K/yr
[#23] Periodic medical checks and mental-health monitoring for personnel exposed to anomalous imagery.
Research And Monitoring $0/yr
[]
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
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⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.6M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal, uneventful operations year with no major leaks, seizures, or political breakdowns.
normal operations cooperation maintained no public incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $4.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Low-level leak, equipment failure, or small public scandal requiring emergency PR, increased takedowns, and temporary operational surge.
low-level leak localized scandal equipment emergency
🚨 Political Exposure $5.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Loss of some local cooperation or political pressure requiring increased diplomacy, larger stewardship payments, and expanded cover/story operations.
diplomatic tension reduced local cooperation public controversy
🚨 Major Extraction $13.6M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Forced extraction, covert removal, or politically charged seizure requiring large-scale covert operations, transport of optical elements, or crisis response.
site seizure military intervention failed diplomacy
👥 Personnel 14 total
Role Count Notes
Site Director / Research Lead 1 [#7] Senior on-site lead responsible for operations and liaison.
Research Scientist / Astronomer 2 [#7] On-site astronomers/analysts to operate and interpret observations.
Telescope Technician 1 [#7, #9] On-site technician for mechanical/optical maintenance and calibration.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#7, #14] Local contract guards and on-call Foundation security for 24/7 physical protection.
Translator / Liaison 1 [#7, #26] Local-language cultural liaison and translator to smooth interactions.
Remote Analysts / Data Scientists / AI Engineers 4 [#21, #22] Remote analysis team for imagery processing, AI/ML model work and intelligence production.
Engineer / Maintenance (Compute) 1 [#22, #9] Engineer supporting secure compute, storage, and server maintenance.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are order-of-magnitude based on provided ranges and usual costs for diplomatic access and telescope maintenance; political/diplomatic variability and wide ranges in contingency figures reduce confidence.
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