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SCP-3840 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3840
Expected annual
$6.1M
One-time setup
$5.4M
Annual recurring
$5.8M
Personnel
16
Initial capital and contingency reserves dominate one-time costs (site buildout, vehicles, sensor/drone networks, and large escalation reserves). Recurring costs are driven by staff wages, legal/cover operations, and logistics (airlift retainer, vehicles, and monitoring programs), yielding multi-million-dollar annual operating expenses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.4M
Escalation Contingency Reserve $1.8M
[#27] Contingency reserve for escalation scenarios (large-scale exposures, evacuations, or major legal challenges).
Legal Contingency Reserve $1.2M
[#13] One-time contingency reserve for legal/liability exposures and indemnity (midpoint of reserve range).
Facilities $700K
[#1] Remote hardened field facility (generator, satellite uplink, fuel storage, berthing, med bay) — midpoint estimate of structural/site buildout.
Compensation Contingency Reserve $500K
[#17] Compensation contingency to cover larger infrequent payments (maintained reserve).
Sensor Network $275K
[#6] Fixed and mobile sensor nodes (thermal, LIDAR, infrasound, seismic) initial deployment for wide-area detection.
Vehicles And Mobility $225K
[#3] Initial purchase and cold-weather outfitting for 4x4 trucks, snowmobiles, ATVs (fleet purchase midpoint).
Amnestics Stockpile $200K
[#12] Initial stockpile/clinic readiness and secure storage for amnestic agents (midpoint).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $188K
[#7, #18] Signal monitoring / radio lab equipment and medical/veterinary forensic lab setup or contractual arrangements.
Drone Fleet $162K
[#5] Long-endurance thermal/visual and expendable UAV initial fleet purchase (midpoint).
It Infrastructure $95K
[#8] On-site and cloud backups, encrypted servers and SOC-type monitoring initial hardware and secure setup.
Evidence Containment Initial $48K
[#21] Secure containers, chain-of-custody systems, and certified containment packaging initial purchases.
Ppe Initial $30K
[#20] Initial purchase of specialized protective equipment, cold-weather gear, hazmat suits and trauma kits.
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $5.8M/yr
Staff Wages $1.8M/yr
[#9, #10, #11] Research team salaries, field operations crews (response teams/technicians/medics), and security/local liaison costs (includes benefits/overtime/hazard pay).
Cover Story And Legal $1.5M/yr
[#13, #14, #16, #15, #29] Legal counsel/liability fund (recurring), continuous misinformation/cover campaigns, PR retainer and incident PR budgets, OSINT/counter-fringe operations, and long-term faux academic/publication cover funding.
Logistics And Transport $630K/yr
[#3, #4] Vehicle maintenance/fuel for field fleet and helicopter/airlift on-call retainer costs for rapid response.
Research And Monitoring $365K/yr
[#5, #6, #7, #8, #22, #23] Drone replacements and consumables, sensor maintenance and data plans, signal lab operations and calibration, IT operations and secure storage operations, signal archiving/audio analysis, and satellite tasking/subscriptions.
Compensation Payments $300K/yr
[#17] Direct annual payments to civilians for property/livestock/equipment damage depending on incident frequency.
Administrative Overhead $235K/yr
[#28] Accounting, HR, procurement, contract management, liaison and back-office costs.
Insurance And Risk Management $175K/yr
[#24] Institutional insurance premiums and risk management due to unusual hazard profile.
Supplies And Consumables $162K/yr
[#19, #20, #21] Expendable test-article budget (decoys/robots), PPE replacements/consumables, and shipping/logistics for evidence transport.
Facilities Maintenance $130K/yr
[#2] Diesel fuel for generators, HVAC, site repairs, snow removal and routine site logistics to maintain year-round operations.
Seasonal Surge $125K/yr
[#26] Additional winter-season costs: emergency resupplies, extra fuel, ice clearing, and surge logistics.
Forensic Testing $125K/yr
[#18] Ongoing medical and veterinary forensic testing, necropsies, biohazard analysis and contracted lab work.
Training And Drills $100K/yr
[#25] Regular training, drills, and SOP development for field crews, medical, PR, and legal teams.
Psychological Support $60K/yr
[#30] Counseling, witness reintegration, monitoring for amnestic recipients and related support services.
Amnestics Administration $50K/yr
[#12] Per-case amnestic procurement/administration and follow-up psychiatric care budget (annualized).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $5.8M/yr
63.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, maintenance, and no major incidents; standard cover operations and staffing.
no significant manifestations near population centers routine maintenance and monitoring only
🚨 Minor Incident $6.1M/yr
30.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized manifestation causes property damage and a small response with helicopter sorties, PR response, and compensation payments.
single localized manifestation near a populated area several helicopter hours and increased PR/legal activity
🚨 Major Breach $9.3M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$3.5M vs baseline
Sustained or multiple manifestations requiring prolonged surge operations, large airlifts, mass compensation, legal settlements, and expanded containment posture.
multiple manifestations or one large event near population centers extended emergency airlift and mass casualty/property claims
🚨 Political Exposure $7.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant public/political exposure requiring major PR/legal campaigns, long-term settlements, and permanent expansion of cover operations.
leak or media/political scrutiny evidence linked to local authorities or visible casualties
👥 Personnel 16 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 5 [#9] Signal analysts, ecologists, physicists, behavioral scientists (3–6 FTEs; midpoint used).
Field Operations (Technician/Medic/Responder) 8 [#10, #3] Rotating response crews to staff remote facility, conduct monitoring and retrievals (6–12 personnel; midpoint used).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#11] Plainclothes agents, local liaisons, and contracted security to prevent civilian access and manage on-scene cover.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges for most categories, enabling midpoint estimates; however incident frequency, scope of required airlift usage, and political/legal outcomes are uncertain, producing moderate confidence.
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