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SCP-3868 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3868
Expected annual
$2.9M
One-time setup
$12.1M
Annual recurring
$2.8M
Personnel
12
Initial one-time setup (vault, digital infrastructure, quarantine outfitting and large contingency reserves) is dominated by a multi-million dollar contingency reserve; steady-state annual operations are driven by in-country embedded assets, research, custody support and legal/cover operations totaling a few million per year.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $12.1M
Emergency Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#19] On-call reserve for Contingency 73-Waitangi / large-scale constitutional replacement or K-Class response.
Emergency Legal War Chest $1.0M
[#20] One-time emergency legal war chest / large rapid litigation payouts.
Facilities $650K
[#1, #9] Vault construction/fit-out and quarantine/containment suite outfitting.
Equipment $385K
[#3, #11, #17] Digital preservation hardware initial install, specialized research equipment, archival scanner/kit.
Legal Retainer Setup $50K
[#14] One-time local legal retainer to enable takedown/cover operations.
In Country Embed Setup $50K
[#5] Recruitment/training and cover-ID setup for embedded NZ assets.
Archival Scaling First Year Per Iteration $3K
[#22] Marginal one-time preservation cost per new physical iteration (first-year one-time storage/preservation).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.8M/yr
Staff Wages $810K/yr
[#4, #10, #11, #18] Wages for cyber-ops (2 FTE), custody/security rotation (3–4 FTE), medical/psych time, and records/database FTE(s).
In Country Embedded Assets $600K/yr
[#5] Salaries/handler support/safe houses/communications/payments for NZ-embedded Foundation assets (3–6 assets).
Research And Monitoring $555K/yr
[#11, #12, #13, #3, #18] Non-wage research program costs, allied-anomaly experimental usage, intelligence monitoring, digital preservation maintenance, database software/ops.
Cover Story And Legal $350K/yr
[#14, #20] Ongoing narrative management, legal retainer payouts, insurance/liability and political fallout mitigation.
Logistics And Transport $180K/yr
[#6, #7, #8, #21] Field confiscation team ops, secure transport/couriers, detention/transport per-instance costs, vehicle leases and movement logistics.
Facilities Maintenance $135K/yr
[#2, #9] Archival HVAC/humidity/pest control and ongoing quarantine/containment suite operations/medical checks.
International Diplomacy And Goi Liaison $100K/yr
[#15] Travel/representation and GOI liaison budget for negotiations and multilateral coordination.
Annual Exercises And Sop Maintenance $50K/yr
[#16] Tabletop exercises, rehearsals, overtime and SOP updates for Jan 17 readiness.
Cyber Operations Tools $30K/yr
[#4] Tooling, crawlers, takedown technical budget and per-event emergency takedown funds (non-wage).
Supplies And Consumables $27K/yr
[#10, #17, #21] Archive consumables, E-Class detainee consumables, PPE/kit replenishment.
Archival Scaling Recurring Per Iteration $600/yr
[#22] Ongoing digital archival marginal cost per new iteration (checksums, off-site media storage).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.8M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal operational year: annual event managed via routine detection, confiscation, archiving, and research with no major incidents.
standard Jan 17 event no significant public backlash no embed exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $3.1M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Heightened public exposure or localized resistance requiring extra takedowns, extra legal payouts, and increased confiscation ops.
viral online spread local legal challenge compromised embed
🚨 Contingency Activation $10.8M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Activation or near-activation of Contingency 73-Waitangi / major political-military scenario requiring mobilization of emergency reserves, large-scale constitutional replacement operations and international diplomacy.
73-Waitangi trigger conditions K-Class precursor activation nation-scale constitutional intervention
👥 Personnel 12 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 4 [#11] Researchers conducting interviews, experiments and analysis (wages included in staff_wages).
Cyber Operator / Cyber-ops 2 [#4] Continuous monitoring and takedown team (wages included in staff_wages).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#10] Custody and rapid-response security staff for detainee supervision and field ops (wages included in staff_wages).
Medical Officer / Psychologist 1 [#10, #9] Medical/psych support for detainees and medical checks (wages included in staff_wages).
Database / Records Specialist 1 [#18] Records management, data-entry and archival metadata (wages included in staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Notes provide detailed line-item ranges for most operational costs (vaults, embeds, cyber, research), allowing medium-confidence estimates; the primary uncertainty is the scale and probability of Contingency 73-Waitangi/K-Class activation which could greatly change one-time and annual spending.
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