SCP-3921 — SCP-3921 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-3921 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-3921

Expected annual

$33.0M

One-time setup

$5.2M

Annual recurring

$31.8M

Personnel

One-time capital/setup costs are modest (~$5.2M) for physical protections and initial stocks; recurring annual costs (~$31.78M) are driven primarily by Arctic observatory operations, MTF readiness, amnestic usage, legal/cover funding, and an internal contingency reserve.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.2M

Equipment $2.7M

[#3, #5, #10, #21] Ballistic/impact panels and mounting ($400,000), sensor/CCTV installation ($75,000), drone fleet procurement ($2,000,000), secure containment trailers/hardened lockers ($200,000) — combined equipment procurement and installation one-time subtotal.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.0M

[#11] R&D and initial development/stock of aerial dispersal systems and sleep-inducing compounds (~$2,000,000 one-time).

Amnestics Stockpile $500K

[#15] One-time production/stockpile of amnestics and initial logistics/safekeeping (~$500,000).

Facilities $15K

[#4] Structural modification: filling keyholes and minor restoration work (~$15,000 one-time).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $31.8M/yr

Arctic Observatory Ops $12.0M/yr

[#8] Leasing/occupation, winterization, heating, comms, airlift/logistics and year-round staffing of multiple Arctic observatories (6 sites estimate) → ~$12,000,000/yr.

Internal Risk Reserve $3.8M/yr

[#26] Insurance/internal contingency allocation (15% of operational budget) to cover unforeseen containment breaches, equipment loss, diplomatic fallout (~$3,800,000/yr).

Cover Story And Legal $3.5M/yr

[#2, #16, #17, #23] Covert site lease/local cover & payments (~$250k/yr), digital censorship/ops (~$150k/yr), legal & diplomatic contingency allocation (~$3,000,000/yr), and public relations/cover-story dissemination (~$120k/yr) → combined ~$3,520,000/yr.

Amnestics Usage $3.0M/yr

[#15] Routine amnestic production/use budget (~$3,000,000/yr) for citizen/staff administration and replenishment.

Research And Monitoring $2.6M/yr

[#9, #19] Weather-balloon/satellite data subscriptions and telemetry, sensor upgrades and data processing (~$600k/yr) plus ongoing research & containment R&D (memetic, meteorological, genetic studies) (~$2,000,000/yr) → total ~$2,600,000/yr.

Mtf Readiness $2.5M/yr

[#7] Maintainable Mobile Task Force readiness (training, aircraft/vehicle retainers, hazmat, specialized training) baseline ~ $2,500,000/yr.

Staff Wages $1.5M/yr

[#1, #6] On-site covert security staff (~8 FTEs incl. supervisors/tour guides → ~$770k/yr) and local rapid-response team salaries (6 personnel × $120k → ~$720k/yr); combined salaries ~$1,490,000/yr.

Facilities Maintenance $850K/yr

[#25] Energy & utilities (observatories, site climate control, backup generators) and general facility upkeep (~$850,000/yr).

Logistics And Transport $800K/yr

[#20] Long-range transport & airlift retainer/contracted capability for urgent Arctic/Greek deployments (~$800,000/yr).

Drones Operations $300K/yr

[#10] Drone maintenance, spare parts, pilot/operator salaries and routine ops (~$300,000/yr).

Medical Support And Decontamination $300K/yr

[#18] Baseline medical, psychiatric, and decontamination support and staff medical surveillance (~$300,000/yr); per-major-event surge costs modeled separately.

Training And Drills $250K/yr

[#24] Regular drills, cross-site exercises, readiness training (~$250,000/yr).

Aerial Dispersal Replenishment $200K/yr

[#11] Replenishment of sleep-inducing compounds and payload systems baseline (~$200,000/yr).

Rapid Response Equipment And Training $100K/yr

[#6] Annual equipment replacement, medical/decon supplies and specialized training for local rapid-response (~$100,000/yr).

Containment Trailers Maintenance $50K/yr

[#21] Annual maintenance and security for secure storage/containment trailers (~$50,000/yr).

Cctv Maintenance And Comms $20K/yr

[#5] Annual maintenance, comms and tamperproof network upkeep for CCTV/sensors (~$20,000/yr).

Supplies And Consumables $0/yr

[]

Chemical Eradication Per Event $0/yr

[#12] Per-event cost for chemical eradication (bromomethane/sulfometuron methyl) estimated ~$1,000,000–$3,000,000 per deployment; no fixed annualized baseline included here (costs modeled in scenarios).

Environmental Remediation Per Event $0/yr

[#13] Environmental remediation & ecological recovery per major Verdant event estimated ~$12,000,000 per event; modeled as per-event expense (not baseline).

Evacuation Per Event $0/yr

[#14] Mass evacuation logistics & temporary housing per event estimated ~$1,500,000/event; modeled per-event.

Hazardous Waste Disposal Per Event $0/yr

[#22] Forensic sampling, hazardous-waste disposal per major event estimated ~$400,000/event; modeled per-event.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $31.8M/yr

55.0% probability / year

Normal year with routine monitoring and readiness costs; no major Verdant-scale deployments or extraordinary per-event expenditures beyond baseline reserves.

no Verdant-level event routine Arctic and MTF operations standard maintenance and replenishment

🚨 Minor Incident $32.4M/yr

40.0% probability / year +$600K vs baseline

Localized Turquoise/Amber-level incident requiring MTF response, limited deployments, drone operations, medical treatment and limited amnestic use.

Turquoise-level snowstorm/λ instances Amber-level event responses small-scale MTF deployments

🚨 Verdant Event $51.8M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline

Verdant-level event (SCP-3921-φ) impacting populated area requiring full evacuation, aerial dispersal, chemical eradication, large-scale remediation and legal/diplomatic mitigation.

formation of SCP-3921-φ over populated area widespread mutagenic contamination large-scale remediation and evacuation

👥 Personnel 14 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / Covert Site Staff	8	[#1] Covert 'security guard' Foundation personnel (eight FTEs as estimated: 2guards per shift + supervisor + tour-guide cover identities; salaries included in staff_wages).
Local Rapid-Response (Tactical)	6	[#6] Local rapid-response tactical unit personnel (6 personnel; salaries included in staff_wages).

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are derived from analyst-provided line items and mid-range assumptions; major drivers (Arctic operations, MTF readiness, legal contingency) are well-identified but per-event frequencies and geopolitical/legal premiums (banned chemical procurement, clandestine operations) are uncertain, lowering confidence to medium.

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