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SCP-3934 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-3934
Expected annual
$3.4M
One-time setup
$8.4M
Annual recurring
$3.3M
Personnel
22
Initial one-time capital and equipment costs are approximately $8.37M driven primarily by large aquatic life-support systems, boats/modular emergency equipment, and a contingency reserve; annual operations average ~$3.31M/yr driven by parazoology/security staff wages, feed/veterinary consumables, and ongoing MTF/readiness and legal/PR costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.4M
Equipment $5.1M
[#4, #7, #11, #12, #16, #20, #15, #14, #18, #24] Large-volume aquatic life-support systems (pumps/filtration/UV), boats/trailers/transport vehicles and vessel modifications, necropsy incinerator & equipment, initial telemetry/tags and receiver arrays, CCTV/drone hardware, emergency large-scale response equipment (cranes/capture barges/modular tanks), initial autoclave/PPE hardware, water-quality probes, secure server hardware, and initial cryobank setup.
Contingency Reserve $2.0M
[#19] One-time contingency/liability reserve to provide emergency funding for escape, litigation, mass-mortality, or large cleanup events (recommended minimum).
Facilities $800K
[#6] Installation of robust habitat perimeter containment (underwater fencing, booms, moorings) and site modifications / small building work to support reserve operations and necropsy area.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $433K
[#10] Initial genotyping/sequencing baseline (~58 samples) and assisted-reproduction lab setup for genetic management/ART and cryopreservation workflows.
Legal And Permit Setup $35K
[#17] One-off legal/permit and initial cover-story setup costs to establish and maintain the Baihe Natural Reserve cover.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.3M/yr
Staff Wages $1.7M/yr
[#1, #2] Parazoology staff wages (veterinarians, keepers, technicians, admin) and on-site security guard wages (baseline staffing). Includes benefits/payroll burden in estimates.
Facilities Maintenance $325K/yr
[#5, #6, #16] Energy costs to operate life-support and site facilities, perimeter maintenance, and surveillance (CCTV/drone) maintenance and life-support upkeep.
Supplies And Consumables $310K/yr
[#8, #9, #15, #22] Feeding (fish/formulated rations), veterinary consumables/medication/diagnostics, PPE consumables and laundry/decon supplies, and miscellaneous consumables/spare parts.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#17, #23] Annual PR/legal retainer and staff for cover operations plus visitor-management costs for the public reserve interface.
Research And Monitoring $280K/yr
[#10, #12, #13, #14] Ongoing genetic testing and management, telemetry/data replacement and storage, behavioral conditioning and research projects, and routine water-quality testing/analytical runs.
Mtf Readiness And Training $200K/yr
[#3] Annual costs to maintain MTF response readiness, specialized handling training, and readiness equipment; per-incident mobilization treated as scenario costs.
It Infrastructure And Infosec $70K/yr
[#18] Annual maintenance, secure hosting, infosec, and forensic IT staffing/tools for records management and data redaction.
Logistics And Transport $55K/yr
[#7] Recurring maintenance, fuel, trailers and transport vehicle upkeep for boats/trucks used in husbandry and response.
Staff Training And Certifications $50K/yr
[#21] Annual training/certification costs (diving, sedation, telemetry, hazardous materials handling, drills).
Biobanking Storage $12K/yr
[#24] Ongoing cryobank/biobank storage and management fees for genetic materials and samples.
Necropsy Disposal $5K/yr
[#11] Recurring per-mortem disposal and contracted incineration costs (assumes 1–5 deaths/yr; mid-range).
Emergency Response Rentals $0/yr
[#20] Per-deployment rental costs for heavy cranes/capture barges/modular tanks are episodic; not included in baseline recurring (handled in incident scenarios).
Contingency Replenishment $0/yr
[#19] Reserve replenishment is ad-hoc and only applied if the contingency fund is used; no baseline annual replenishment assumed.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.3M/yr
84.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine maintenance, staffing, monitoring and research continue.
no escapes no mass-mortality routine operations only
🚨 Minor Incident $3.4M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Single-animal escape or small on-site incident requiring MTF mobilization, limited repairs, and targeted veterinary care.
single instance escape localized injury/disease small-scale recovery operation
🚨 Major Breach $4.8M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Multi-animal escape, disease outbreak, or mass-mortality requiring extended multi-day capture campaigns, mass necropsies, large rentals, and contingency fund draws.
pod breach disease outbreak large-scale capture campaign
🚨 Political Exposure $5.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Public exposure or legal/political escalation leading to lawsuits, heavy PR/cover operations, fines, and potential compensation or buyout actions.
major public leak litigation or regulatory penalties activist or media campaign
👥 Personnel 22 total
Role Count Notes
Veterinarian / Parazoologist 4 [#1] Senior veterinarians/parazoologists responsible for medical care and oversight.
Keeper / Senior Keeper 6 [#1] Shift keepers responsible for daily husbandry, feeding, and conditioning.
Technician / Administrative Support 4 [#1] Lab technicians, animal care technicians, and administrative support counted in parazoology staffing.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#2] On-site perimeter and on-water security staff to protect reserve and prevent public access; MTF response is maintained on-call (see readiness costs).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst-provided ranges and conservative midpoints; capital needs (life-support, perimeter, contingency) are reasonably well scoped but actual site-specific infrastructure conditions (existing lake suitability) and incident frequency introduce uncertainty.
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