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SCP-3946 Unassigned ~ medium confidence
SCP-3946
Expected annual
$3.7M
One-time setup
$2.8M
Annual recurring
$3.6M
Personnel
24
Initial capital is approximately $2.79M, driven mainly by deployment of sensors/ROV systems and vault/lab fit-out; recurring annual costs are approximately $3.59M driven by staff wages, maritime patrols/sensor maintenance and a 15% contingency reserve.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.8M
Equipment $1.5M
[#1, #5, #6, #9, #11, #13, #14, #21] Buoy procurement & install, remote surveillance initial deployment, ROV/AUV + LARS purchase, vault instrumentation, initial PPE kits, alarm/CCTV setup, emergency-response vessel/refit (one-time element), and IT/server hardware.
Facilities $525K
[#8] Basic hermetically sealed vault construction and fit-out (baseline; BSL upgrades excluded).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $405K
[#16, #17] Laboratory instrument purchases (mass spec/sequencing/bench gear) and one-time digitization/archival supplies.
Legal And Liaison Initial $150K
[#3] Initial legal/administrative outlay to register marine sanctuary, permits, stakeholder compensation and liaison.
Environmental Assessment Initial $125K
[#19] Initial seabed/water baseline survey and environmental assessment.
Cover Story Initial $75K
[#18] Initial public affairs / cover campaign set-up and local community outreach.
Patrol Vessel Purchase $0
[#4] Purchase option for patrol vessels not selected in baseline (purchase costs noted but set to 0 here; lease used in recurring).
Salvage Structural Stabilization $0
[#23] Conditional heavy-lift salvage / structural stabilization—no baseline one-time set (accounted for in scenario).
Annual Summary Note $0
[#25] Analyst annual-summary reference; no direct cost assigned here.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.6M/yr
Staff Wages $1.5M/yr
[#12, #13, #6, #14] Research team salaries, vault/shore security payroll, ROV operator salaries and on-call emergency/medevac staffing.
Contingency Fund $469K/yr
[#20] ~15% contingency on recurring budget per analyst guidance to cover unplanned anomalous behaviour and cost overruns.
Logistics And Transport $432K/yr
[#4, #7, #10] Lease/contracted maritime patrols, expected annual retrieval mission costs (averaged), and secure transport/transfer charters per year.
Supplies And Consumables $340K/yr
[#11, #12, #15, #16, #17] PPE consumables & replacements, research supplies (small equipment), decontamination/waste treatment, laboratory consumables/service contracts, and conservation materials.
Facilities Maintenance $252K/yr
[#1, #2, #5, #6, #9] Buoy inspection/repair, buoy lifecycle replacement reserve, surveillance sensor maintenance, ROV maintenance/spares, and vault calibration/maintenance.
Insurance And Indemnities $200K/yr
[#20] Annual insurance/indemnity reserve where applicable and indemnity funds for legal exposure.
Covert Operations And Black Budget $200K/yr
[#24] Discretionary covert/black-budget operational secrecy costs (off-books contractors, local payments) at a modest baseline level.
Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr
[#3, #18] Ongoing legal/administrative fees, permit renewals and public affairs/PR monitoring.
Research And Monitoring $60K/yr
[#19] Ongoing environmental/ecological monitoring and periodic follow-up surveys.
Data Management It Annual $35K/yr
[#21] Hosting, secure telemetry links, encrypted storage, backups and SOC monitoring (annual service contracts).
Training Drills And Medical Surveillance $30K/yr
[#22] Regular drills, personnel medical surveillance, vaccinations and refresher training.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.6M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with scheduled maintenance, patrols, research and no major incidents.
routine patrols and maintenance scheduled retrievals (if any) no salvage or major incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $3.9M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$275K vs baseline
A localized incident requiring an extra retrieval mission, surge patrols and elevated decontamination/medical response.
retrieval of additional artifacts small-scale exposure or contamination temporary patrol surge
🚨 Major Salvage Operation $6.9M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$3.3M vs baseline
Large-scale salvage/stabilization and biosafety upgrades triggered by decision to remove/secure remains or discovery of hazardous materials.
decision to salvage or stabilize ship remains requirement for BSL upgrades and heavy-lift operations significant unexpected hazardous residues
👥 Personnel 24 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 4 [#12] Researchers/technicians assigned to artifact and biological analysis.
PI / Lab Manager 2 [#12] Principal investigator and lab manager overseeing research and safety limits.
Conservator / Archivist 1 [#12, #17] Specialist for artifact conservation and digitization/archival work.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#13] 24/7 guarded security rota for vault and shore operations.
ROV Operator / Technician 2 [#6] Operators and technicians for ROV/AUV operations and maintenance.
Medical Officer / Hazmat Team Member 2 [#14, #22] On-call medevac and hazmat personnel for exposure response and medical surveillance.
Administrative Staff 1 [#3, #18] Administrative/legal liaison and community/PR coordination support.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges for hardware, staffing and recurring services allowing a mid-range estimate; uncertainty remains around salvage scope, biosafety upgrade choice (BSL-3/4), and frequency of retrievals/incidents, hence medium confidence.
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