SCP-3955 Safe ~ medium confidence
███-3955
Expected annual
$3.6M
One-time setup
$8.6M
Annual recurring
$3.6M
Personnel
10
One-time setup and hardening (emergency shutdowns, power redundancy, clean-room upgrades, and a catastrophic contingency reserve) drive most upfront cost (~$8.57M); annual operating and mitigation (staff, monitoring, takedown ops, opportunity cost) total roughly $3.59M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.6M
Catastrophic Reserve $5.0M
[#22] One-time catastrophic contingency fund / reserve to cover extreme tail-risk (facility damage, remediation, reality-anomaly response) as recommended in notes; alternative is recurring insurance premium (see recurring).
Facilities $1.7M
[#9, #10, #11, #21] Emergency shutdown retrofits and interlocks (#9), redundant power/cooling commissioning capex (#10 one-time), calibration room / clean-room upgrade (#11 one-time), and physical site hardening / badge/CCTV upgrades (#21 one-time).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $900K
[#4, #14] Detector development / ML training lab and compute/dataset labeling (#4 one-time) and focused 12–24 month scientific risk quantification study / safe testbeds (#14 one-time).
Equipment $480K
[#12, #18, #19, #24] Specialized sanitization tooling and vacuum chambers (#12 one-time), archival/tape hardware and air-gapped backup segmentation (#18 one-time), audio lab ADC/DAC and QA hardware (#19 one-time), and initial incident-response kit & materials (#24 one-time).
Memetic Safeguards Development $300K
[#15] Development of human-facing audio filters, frequency-scrubbing tools and consulting (one-time development).
Integration Deployment $120K
[#5] Software engineering, QA, and pipeline hardening to integrate detector inline with CAOCIT/Time Box workflows (one-time deployment).
Legal Preparedness Plan $50K
[#17] One-time crisis PR / legal preparedness plan and rapid-response documentation (one-time).
Staff Training Development $12K
[#2] Development and initial delivery of staff training, printed/online materials, and sign-off tracking (one-time development + first delivery).
Policy Update $5K
[#1] Administrative policy drafting, legal sign-off, distribution and posting of mandatory warnings (one-time rollout).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.6M/yr
Opportunity Costs $2.0M/yr
[#23] Conservative placeholder for lost grant revenue / halted musical/harmonic research pipelines (~$2M/yr).
Staff Wages $360K/yr
[#7] Dedicated CAOCIT oversight team wages (1 senior scientist ~$180k + 2 technicians ~$90k each) including benefits and site allowances.
Digital Takedown $350K/yr
[#16] Automated crawlers, cloud scanning, takedown/DMCA effort and a small analyst team (~4 analysts) to remove or suppress motif occurrences from public platforms.
Security Staffing $180K/yr
[#8] Additional restricted-access security officers (midpoint of 2–4 guards used; ~$180k/yr).
Small Takedown Reserve $150K/yr
[#25] Per-incident takedown / rapid-response reserve allocated annually (~$150k available per incident/year).
Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr
[#17] Annual legal retainer and crisis-management PR retainer (~$100k/yr).
Memetic Safeguards Maintenance $100K/yr
[#15] Maintenance and updates for audio whiteout / frequency-scrubbing tools and consulting (~$100k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $85K/yr
[#11, #12, #19] Clean-room consumables and contamination-control supplies (#11 ~$50k/yr), sanitization consumables for Time Boxes (#12 ~$30k/yr), and audio lab calibration/consumables (#19 ~$5k/yr).
Psych Med Monitoring $75K/yr
[#13] Ongoing psychiatric/medical surveillance, counseling access and periodic screenings for personnel exposed to Time Boxes.
Research And Monitoring $60K/yr
[#6] Ongoing detector operation, batch analysis compute, storage for flagged clips and logging (continuous scanning costs ~ $60k/yr).
External Audit $50K/yr
[#20] Annual third-party compliance/audit reviews of CAOCIT and detector performance.
Facilities Maintenance $40K/yr
[#10, #21] Ongoing maintenance for redundant power/cooling (fuel, service) (#10 recurring ~$30k/yr) and physical-security upkeep/CCTV/license fees (#21 recurring ~$10k/yr).
Archival Storage Management $20K/yr
[#18] Annual management, tape rotation and secure-storage admin for air-gapped archives.
Incident Exercises $10K/yr
[#24] Annual tabletop exercises and drill costs (~$10k/yr).
Audio Lab Maintenance $5K/yr
[#19] Maintenance/calibration for audio QA hardware (~$5k/yr).
Staff Training Renewal $5K/yr
[#3] Annual refresher training and compliance attestations for new staff and yearly refreshers (~$5k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
Catastrophic Insurance Premium $0/yr
[#22] Alternative to one-time reserve: specialized insurance premium estimated ~$200k/yr. Baseline assumes one-time reserve funded; premium set to 0 in baseline.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.6M/yr
88.8% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, training, monitoring, and no external incidents.
no leaks regular audits pass detector operates normally
🚨 Minor Incident $3.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
A modest public leak or flagged audio requires emergency takedown, targeted legal actions, and use of small-response funds.
single public leak targeted takedown/legal action
🚨 Major Breach $11.6M/yr
0.2% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Time Box malfunction or contamination event causing facility damage, mass remediation, medical response, and extended recovery.
Time Box catastrophic failure facility damage / reality-anomaly remediation
🚨 Political Exposure $4.6M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Public exposure or whistleblower event that triggers heavy PR/legal response, increased monitoring and potential temporary research halt.
media leak regulatory/political scrutiny
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist (senior oversight) 1 [#7] Senior scientist overseeing CAOCIT policy adherence and detector program (salary included in staff_wages).
Technician / Lab Technician 2 [#7] Two technicians for day-to-day checks, experiments, and Time Box maintenance (included in staff_wages).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#8] Additional restricted-access security officers (midpoint of 2–4 used; wages included in security_staffing).
Analyst (digital takedown / monitoring) 4 [#16] Team of ~4 analysts supporting automated crawlers, takedown efforts and monitoring (salaries included in digital_takedown).
📋 Confidence Notes
Line-item estimates come from analyst notes with clear rationales for most categories (detector dev, clean-room upgrades, staffing). Uncertainty remains around tail-risk sizing (catastrophic reserve vs insurance), the scope of opportunity-cost accounting, and frequency of public incidents, hence medium confidence.
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