SCP-3963 — SCP-3963 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-3963 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-3963

Expected annual

$1.6M

One-time setup

$1.1M

Annual recurring

$1.3M

Personnel

Initial one-time startup costs are roughly $1.10M to establish secure containment, remote handling and baseline diagnostics; annual operating costs are about $1.30M driven primarily by research staff, D‑Class rotation and medical/quarantine staffing. Major cost drivers if authorized: an optional active retrieval program with multi-million dollar development and operations costs.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.1M

Equipment $472K

[#2, #3, #4, #5] Primary remote-handling robot (#2: $200k), precision remote manipulator & tooling (#3: $250k), redundant A/V systems (#4: $15k), specialized sensors/data-logging (#5: $7,500).

Emergency Response Contingency Reserve $200K

[#18] Emergency response and contingency reserve (reserved fund for accidents/breaches/retrieval failures) ($200k).

Facilities $190K

[#1, #9, #15] Containment locker (#1: $50k), medical/quarantine isolation retrofit (#9: $100k), and backup containment/storage (#15: $40k). Includes installation and certification for locker and isolation retrofit.

Local Cover And Legal Mitigation $150K

[#14] Immediate truth mitigation, NDAs, local compensation and sealing the dig/site mitigation ($150k).

Secure Transport And Recovery $50K

[#13] Secure transportation and recovery costs for initial recovery and crate/restraints/escort ($50k).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $40K

[#11, #12] Laboratory analysis services (#11: $25k) and outsourced high-end imaging/CT/SEM/XRF scans (#12: $15k).

Advanced Retrieval Development $0

[#22] Optional active retrieval development (speculative $5M–$15M). Set to $0 here because this is not authorized in baseline; costs modeled in scenarios if activated.

Startup Guidance $0

[#23] Analyst guidance on overall startup sizing (one-time guidance; captured in totals rather than as additional line-item).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.3M/yr

Staff Wages $620K/yr

[#10, #9, #17] Research team salaries and travel/equipment usage (#10: $450k), medical/quarantine recurring staffing and consumables included as staff costs (#9: $150k), and psychological care/counseling partially reflected here (#17: $20k).

D Class Program $320K/yr

[#8] D-Class program recurring costs: recruitment, housing, food, guard detail and rotation for 4 D-Class dedicated to this object (~$80k each; total ~$320k/yr).

Administrative Overhead $216K/yr

[#21] Administrative/program overhead (20% of recurring subtotal before overhead as applied to recurring costs) (~$216k/yr).

Supplies And Consumables $80K/yr

[#6] Routine maintenance, spares and consumables for robots/manipulators (batteries, motors, spare end-effectors; estimated ~20% of capital) (#6: $80k/yr).

Cover Story And Legal $30K/yr

[#19] Ongoing legal/PR monitoring, media monitoring, NDA renewals and cover-story maintenance ($30k/yr).

Facilities Maintenance $15K/yr

[#7] Containment monitoring & alarm subscription, software maintenance, yearly certification/calibration (#7: $15k/yr).

Research And Monitoring $10K/yr

[#16] Evidence/audio archival and secure data storage (long-term encrypted archives and backups) (#16: $10k/yr).

Power And Utilities $5K/yr

[#20] Incremental electricity for cameras, robots, climate control, and data storage (~$5k/yr).

Logistics And Transport $0/yr

[] No dedicated recurring line-item for cross-border transport included in baseline (initial recovery was one-time, #13).

Advanced Retrieval Operations $0/yr

[#22] Optional recurring operations for an authorized active retrieval program ($2M–$5M/yr). Set to $0 in baseline; modeled in scenarios if activated.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.3M/yr

93.0% probability / year

Normal year with passive containment, scheduled maintenance, small-scale testing and the stated D‑Class rotation; no activation of optional retrieval program and no major incidents.

routine maintenance scheduled research D-Class rotation

🚨 Minor Incident $1.5M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline

Minor containment or equipment incident (robot failure, small medical emergency, or localized breach) requiring emergency mobilization and repairs but no wide-scale escalation.

robot/equipment failure D-Class medical evacuation localized alarm response

🚨 Research Program Activation $14.8M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$13.5M vs baseline

Management authorizes the optional active retrieval/research program (development of cross-interface probes and large-scale operations).

authorization_of_active_retrieval_program scale-up_of_testing_and_D-Class_usage

👥 Personnel 6 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	3	[#10] Dedicated investigators (archaeology, linguistics, anomalous studies) — team of 3 as budgeted.
Medical Officer / Clinician	2	[#9] On-call clinicians and quarantine/medical staff to support screening and urgent care.
Psychologist / Counselor	1	[#17] Counseling and behavioral monitoring for staff and D‑Class.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are based on provided analyst line items and midpoints; many line items have explicit ranges which introduces uncertainty, and the anomalous/operational policy decisions (e.g., whether to authorize active retrieval) create major variance — hence medium confidence.

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