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SCP-3971 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-3971
Expected annual
$7.9M
One-time setup
$3.2M
Annual recurring
$7.7M
Personnel
41
Baseline program requires substantial recurring staffing (rapid-response MTF, researchers, analysts) driving annual costs (~$7.7M/yr); one-time startup equipment and sensor/network buildout add roughly $3.2M. Major incidents (maritime salvage, high-profile breaches) or a decision to scale containment R&D would substantially increase single-year spending.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.2M
Equipment $1.6M
[#4, #8, #9, #17, #18] Portable containment/welder kits, regional sensor network hardware deployment, unmanned probes/drones, field comms kits/central server hardware, and forensic imaging equipment/storage.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $590K
[#5, #10, #16] Initial development of monitoring/ML pipelines, lab analysis equipment and sample-preservation setup, and curriculum development for SOPs/training.
Insurance Reserve $500K
[#19] One-time reserve fund to seed covert reimbursements / property replacement reserve.
International Network Development $300K
[#20] Development of international liaison/contractor network and initial onboarding costs.
Facilities $200K
[#3, #11] Permanent site retrofit and archive setup/climate-controlled storage and structural work for secure archives and utility-closet modifications.
Containment Research Wing Buildout $0
[#21] Optional specialised containment R&D wing buildout; not included in baseline one-time costs.
Catastrophic Emergency Reserve $0
[#24] Large emergency reserve for catastrophic / high-profile events; not included in baseline one-time costs.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.7M/yr
Staff Wages $5.0M/yr
[#1, #5, #6, #30] Fully burdened salaries for a 30-person rapid-response MTF roster, monitoring analysts, data-science/research staff, and program/administrative FTEs.
Cover Story And Legal $630K/yr
[#12, #13, #25] Legal/diplomatic retainers and covert-cover operations, PR/mediamanagement retainers, and routine record redaction/legal maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $445K/yr
[#5, #6, #7, #10] Ongoing monitoring operations (infra), data licenses/compute, historical/field-investigation budgets, and recurring lab analysis.
International Liaison And Contractors $400K/yr
[#20] Annual retainers and tasking budgets for foreign contractors, local operatives, and liaison networks.
Facilities Maintenance $195K/yr
[#11, #26, #8] Archive climate-control and catalog maintenance, energy & utilities overhead for sites, and sensor connectivity/storage ongoing costs.
Training And Simulation $185K/yr
[#16, #28] Annual recurrent training for response teams and joint civilian-responder exercises.
Supplies And Consumables $153K/yr
[#4, #9, #22, #29, #18] Consumables and maintenance for portable kits, per-test expendables for unmanned probes, replacement budget for high attrition on tests, decontamination/disposal, and ongoing media procurement.
Search And Recovery Contingency $150K/yr
[#14] Annual reserve to cover smaller-scale search, aerial/terrestrial searches, and contingency salvage work.
Opportunity Cost Reserve $150K/yr
[#27] Reserve to cover lost productivity, relocated equipment, and disrupted research when sites are locked down.
Medical And Psych Services $125K/yr
[#15] Ongoing counseling programs, medical care budgeting, and witness management (recurring).
Per Mission Deployment Contingency $100K/yr
[#2] Expected annual contingency for helicopter/fixed-wing/vehicle transport, surge overtime and mission-specific consumables for deployments (baseline exposure).
Personnel Security And Vetting $60K/yr
[#23] Enhanced vetting, counter-intel, polygraph and background-check program costs.
Communications Maintenance $50K/yr
[#17] Maintenance, licensing, and redundancy costs for hardened comms and secure servers.
Decommissioning And Disposal $20K/yr
[#29] Recurring budget for hazardous disposal and decontamination of compromised equipment.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.7M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal year with ongoing monitoring, one regional rapid-response team, routine research and maintenance; no major incidents.
no_manifestation_events routine_research_and_ops
🚨 Minor Incident $7.9M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Single low-to-moderate manifestation requiring MTF deployment, limited search/recovery, PR/legal action and some medical/witness handling.
local_manifestation short-range_deployment limited_public_exposure
🚨 Major Breach $10.7M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
High-profile manifestation (government building, maritime salvage) requiring large covert operations, salvage, diplomatic/legal actions and extensive PR containment.
high_profile_location deep_water_salvage international_diplomatic_response
🚨 Research Scale Up $9.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Decision to pursue physical containment/research wing and scale up specialized R&D staff and prototypes (buildout + hiring).
policy_decision_to_attempt_containment funding_approval_for_r&d_buildout
👥 Personnel 41 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 30 [#1] 30-person rotational roster to provide 24/7 rapid-response coverage (includes operators, medics, comms, small command element).
Research Scientist 4 [#6] Data scientists/statisticians/geospatial analysts (3–5 recommended; midpoint used).
Data Analyst / Intelligence Analyst 3 [#5] Monitoring and triage analysts for automated scraping and civilian-report triage (2–4 recommended; midpoint used).
Administrative Staff / Program Management 4 [#30] Program management, contracting, procurement and finance FTEs (2–6 recommended; midpoint used).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are midpoint judgements based on wide ranges provided; many line items are per-incident and depend on manifestation frequency which is unknown, producing moderate uncertainty.
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