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SCP-4097 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4097
Expected annual
$21.9M
One-time setup
$100.8M
Annual recurring
$20.4M
Personnel
67
Initial one-time buildout and stabilization of the Tibesti complex plus a large contingency dominate upfront costs (~$100.8M); ongoing annual expenses (~$20.4M/yr) are driven by personnel, R&D/testing, secure comms/OPSEC and facility maintenance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $100.8M
Facilities $50.2M
[#1, #2, #3, #9, #10, #11, #13, #14, #17] Includes land/control setup, covert surface cover construction, perimeter hardening, power/install, environmental control systems, tunnel refurbishment/stabilization, Test Site-4097 buildout, acoustic berming, and ammunition-storage retrofits.
Contingency Fund $27.5M
[#24] Reserved emergency/contingency pool for detonations, large-scale damage, compensation and litigation mitigation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $11.6M
[#16, #23] Specialized containment R&D lab buildout and initial forensics/documentation infrastructure.
Equipment $11.2M
[#7, #8, #12, #15, #22, #27] Sensor networks and monitoring hardware, secure communications hardware, heavy-lift and material handling equipment, remote/robotic manipulators, medbay equipment and initial data storage/ingest hardware.
Cover Company Setup $275K
[#21] One-time costs for creating shell company, registrations, initial false permits and setup of legal cover.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $20.4M/yr
Research And Monitoring $5.8M/yr
[#13, #15, #16, #25, #27] Test site operations/testing, remote-robotics operations, ongoing containment R&D, environmental monitoring, and recurring data storage/analysis.
Staff Wages $5.1M/yr
[#4, #5, #6, #19] On-site security rotations, scientific/technical staff salaries, logistics/operations staff, and imagery analysts (payroll portion).
Cover Story And Legal $3.1M/yr
[#19, #20, #21, #28] Satellite imagery licenses (cover), cyber/OPSEC takedowns and legal actions, ongoing cover-company operational costs, and diplomatic/liaison expenses.
Facilities Maintenance $1.8M/yr
[#3, #7, #9, #10, #12] Ongoing repairs/maintenance for perimeter systems, sensor upkeep, generator fuel/maintenance, HVAC/environmental systems, and heavy-lift equipment servicing.
Hq Overhead $1.8M/yr
[#30] Long-term program overhead and centralized HQ support: legal, HR, procurement and audit allocable to the program.
Logistics And Transport $950K/yr
[#18, #22] Heavy-lift charters/convoys for ordnance movement and medevac/air-ambulance contract costs.
Acoustic Enforcement And Compensation $600K/yr
[#14] Enforcement of exclusion zones, local compensation, and annual permitting/notifications related to test firing acoustic mitigation.
Local Payments $550K/yr
[#1] Ongoing local payments, permits/bribes, and contractor obligations to maintain covert operational control of the site.
Communications Maintenance $250K/yr
[#8] Recurring costs for satellite uplinks, secure radios, encryption key rotation, and comms maintenance.
Supplies And Consumables $175K/yr
[#26] PPE replacement, medical surveillance program consumables and routine expendables.
Training And Safety Drills $175K/yr
[#29] Recurring training, evacuation drills, magazine-opening rehearsals and remote-manipulator exercises.
Forensics Storage And Curation $125K/yr
[#23] Ongoing storage, curation, and processing of recovered remains and historical artifacts.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $20.4M/yr
81.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; ongoing staffing, R&D, monitoring and maintenance continue.
routine_operations scheduled_testing_paused no major containment events
🚨 Minor Incident $21.4M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized incident (small fire, sensor/network failure, minor magazine damage) requiring repairs, investigations, amnestics and limited compensation.
small_fire_or_tunnel_damage localized_detonation_or_equipment_loss public_inquiry requiring limited payouts
🚨 Major Breach $35.4M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Significant magazine detonation, partial structural loss, or serious contamination requiring reconstruction, major remediation and multi-month shutdown.
magazine_detonation large_scale_structural_failure major_environmental_remediation
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $105.4M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$85.0M vs baseline
Catastrophic anomalous event (e.g. SCP-4097-L/12 effects) causing loss of test facilities, widespread contamination/exposure, international diplomatic crisis and major remediation/litigation.
magazine-12_uncontrolled_activation large_anomalous_detonation_or_translocation international_exposure_and_mass_remediation
👥 Personnel 67 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 36 [#4] Rotational 24/7 guards and expatriate supervisors (blended wage estimate reflected in staff_wages).
Research Scientist 16 [#5] Scientific/technical staff, Level-4 approval staff and specialists responsible for ordnance analysis and experiments.
Logistics & Operations Staff 12 [#6] Drivers, maintenance crews, procurement and local liaisons supporting day-to-day site operations.
Satellite Imagery Analyst 3 [#19] Imagery analysts/editors performing routine monitoring and clandestine image alteration (payroll portion included in staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Budget components are grounded in the analyst itemized estimates (facilities, equipment, staff, R&D) so mid-level confidence; large uncertainty remains due to Magazine-12's unknown anomalous effects, potential for translocation/catastrophic events and regional political variables.
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