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SCP-4251 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4251
Expected annual
$6.6M
One-time setup
$7.7M
Annual recurring
$6.4M
Personnel
35
Initial capital expenditures are approximately $7.75M driven by base construction, UAV/robotics, ruggedized instrumentation and a contingency reserve; annual operating costs are approximately $6.45M/yr driven primarily by security staffing, airlift/logistics, research, and consumables.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.7M
Equipment $3.2M
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #9, #12, #13, #14] Power generation hardware, communications hardware, primary and redundant gravimeters, perimeter sensors, UAV airframes/stations, rugged remote probes, high-G-rated mounts and initial medical equipment.
Facilities $1.5M
[#2, #10, #23] Central field base construction, helipad and initial waste/sanitation infrastructure for remote jungle operations.
Contingency Reserve $1.2M
[#24] Initial contingency & emergency extraction fund (liquid reserve maintained for rapid response).
Decommissioning And Site Remediation $800K
[#26] End-of-program decommissioning, infrastructure removal and site remediation (lump-sum plan).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $380K
[#11, #19] Mobile field lab buildout (BSL-1/2, cold chain, microscopes) and initial data/storage infrastructure.
Site Survey And Reconnaissance $250K
[#1] Initial reconnaissance team operations, geophysical survey, GPS markers, initial access tracks and permitting under cover story.
Cover Story And Ngo Setup $210K
[#20] Establishing registered conservation NGO shell, initial PR/outreach and community compensation setup.
Legal And Permitting Setup $100K
[#21] Initial legal, permitting and diplomatic/administrative setup to enable cover story and local operations.
Field Training Setup $50K
[#8] One-time field training setup and facilities for specialized tactical/rescue unit exercises.
Training Development $48K
[#25] Development of anomaly-specific safety protocol courses and simulation materials.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.4M/yr
Staff Wages $2.2M/yr
[#7, #8, #14] 24/7 Stationary Task Force security staffing, specialized tactical/rescue unit personnel & ongoing personnel costs, and on-site medical staffing and medevac standby.
Logistics And Transport $1.6M/yr
[#9, #10, #15] UAV flight operations and maintenance, helicopter charter/airlift/resupply hours, and personnel rotation/evacuation travel costs.
Research And Monitoring $640K/yr
[#5, #18, #19] Gravimeter maintenance/calibration, funded scientific research programs (ecology/physiology/geophysics) and data management/analysis staffing and cloud services.
Supplies And Consumables $540K/yr
[#11, #16] Lab consumables, cold-chain shipping, food, PPE, spare parts and routine base consumables.
Cover Story And Legal $495K/yr
[#20, #21, #22] Ongoing NGO/public relations, legal counsel/permitting/diplomatic costs and intelligence/media monitoring / counter-disclosure operations.
Facilities Maintenance $332K/yr
[#3, #6, #13, #23] Ongoing power/fuel maintenance, perimeter sensor upkeep, structural inspection/recertification and waste/sanitation operations.
Robotics And Remote Probe Maintenance $175K/yr
[#12] Replacement/repair and ops support for shock-hardened robotic platforms and remote probes.
Replacement Reserve $175K/yr
[#17] Annual reserve for replacing capital equipment damaged by anomaly cycles (~3–10% of deployed capital).
Communications And Telemetry $150K/yr
[#4] VSAT satellite service, encrypted telemetry subscription and ongoing radio/repeater service costs.
Contingency Replenishment $100K/yr
[#24] Annual top-up to maintain contingency & emergency extraction liquidity if partially used.
Training And Exercises $62K/yr
[#25] Recurrent training, simulations and refresher courses for anomaly-specific safety protocols.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.4M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine operations, maintenance, research and rotations proceed as planned.
routine_operations scheduled_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $7.2M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline
Localized equipment failure, small-scale damage from an anomaly cycle, brief medevac or limited political/local incident requiring emergency repair and PR response.
localized_equipment_damage limited_medical_evacuations small_public_disclosure
🚨 Major Breach $9.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Significant containment-impacting event causing widespread equipment destruction, extended evacuation/repair, heavy airlift usage, and major legal/liaison expenses.
widespread_equipment_loss extended_staff_extraction diplomatic_incident
👥 Personnel 35 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 24 [#7] Permanent on-site guards and patrol teams providing 24/7 perimeter enforcement.
Specialized Tactical Unit / MTF Agent 8 [#8] Special ops-grade unit for anomaly incidents, extractions and investigations (includes training overhead in recurring costs).
Medical Officer 3 [#14] On-site medics and trauma/evac staff covering high-g injury response and medevac coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
Mid-confidence: analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges and clear operational assumptions, but several anomaly-driven failure modes (high/low-g cycles) are uncertain and local political/logistical factors in Myanmar could materially change procurement and recurring costs.
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