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SCP-4264 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4264
Expected annual
$3.7M
One-time setup
$14.8M
Annual recurring
$3.7M
Personnel
15
Large one-time contingency and reserve funds dominate the upfront cost (~$14.8M) while recurring annual costs are driven by research payroll, security staffing, insurance and field operations (~$3.72M/yr). Main drivers are research team wages, liability/insurance and contingency reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $14.8M
Large Scale Contingency $10.0M
[#18] High-level catastrophic contingency reserve for worst-case reconstruction/long-term operations.
Infrastructure Reserve $3.0M
[#15] Seed reserve for infrastructure repair and victim compensation.
Environmental Remediation Reserve $625K
[#22] Reserve for environmental remediation & public-health response.
Coverup Contingency $500K
[#14] Initial contingency fund for cover stories/settlements/first-response legal/amnestic budgets.
Regional Field Detachment $400K
[#10] One-time startup for regional field detachment: safehouse lease setup, two AWD SUVs, comms equipment.
Equipment $146K
[#3, #4, #11, #19] CCTV/alarm/intrusion hardware, access-control hardware/software, mobile monitoring kit (UAVs/sensors/comm kit), secure scanner hardware for archival copies.
Medical Stockpile $100K
[#13] Initial amnestic/medical stockpile purchase and training/cold storage setup.
Facilities $32K
[#1, #2] Physical locker/safe purchase and installation plus environmental control installation (dehumidifier/temperature control and fire suppression).
Sop Development $20K
[#20] One-time development of SOPs, training materials and formal procedures.
Personnel Vetting $15K
[#6] Initial deep-background checks/polygraphs/psych evals for initial ~10-person access cohort.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.7M/yr
Staff Wages $2.2M/yr
[#5, #7] Security personnel (7 FTEs: 6guards + 1 supervisor) and research team payroll (6 senior scientists + 2 techs) including benefits/overhead.
Insurance And Indemnity $500K/yr
[#17] Internal insurance/indemnity pool allocation to cover liabilities and civil suits.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#14, #16] Ongoing legal/ethical oversight and roll-forward cover-story/legal operations budget (in-house counsel, ethics review, and event-level small-response funds).
Regional Field Detachment $150K/yr
[#10] Annual lease/maintenance and local staffing costs for regional field detachment in Calhoun County.
Research And Monitoring $145K/yr
[#23, #24] Documentation/auditing and opportunity/strategic-use analysis/modeling costs to run simulations, contracted SMEs and regular compliance reviews.
Per Experiment Operations $100K/yr
[#8] Budgeted per-year allocation for controlled experiment operations (assumes ~1 controlled test/year at ~$100,000/test).
Infrastructure Replenishment $100K/yr
[#15] Annual replenishment target for infrastructure repair & victim compensation reserve as used.
Supplies And Consumables $78K/yr
[#11, #13, #20] Mobile monitoring consumables and replacements (~$17,500/yr), medical/amnestic consumables replenishment (~$25,000/yr), and annual training/exercise consumables (~$35,000/yr).
Logistics And Transport $40K/yr
[#12] Annual travel budget for deployments to Calhoun County for experiments/containment (flights, lodging, per diem).
Local Leasing $35K/yr
[#21] Annual leasing/staging infrastructure costs in Calhoun County (safehouses/storage/office space).
Subject Recruitment $30K/yr
[#9] Annual budget for subject recruitment/screening/isolation/compensation (typical per-test subjects aggregated to ~$30,000/yr).
Environmental Remediation Replenish $25K/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment / readiness budget for environmental remediation response.
Facilities Maintenance $7K/yr
[#2, #3, #4, #19] Locker environmental energy/servicing, CCTV/monitoring contracts, access-control support and secure-hosting/air-gapped maintenance (~$500 + $2,000 + $2,500 + $2,000).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.7M/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal year with standard containment, routine research activity (approx. one controlled test), and no significant manifest incidents.
planned_research routine_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $3.9M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Small unplanned actualization or minor experimental mishap in Calhoun County requiring regional response, limited amnestic use and modest cover-up costs.
unauthorized_teaching small_actualization first_responder_exposure
🚨 Major Event $5.2M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Moderate to large actualization with infrastructure damage, multiple exposures, significant amnestic campaigns and public-relations/legal settlements.
complex_controlled_test widespread_actualization infrastructure_damage
👥 Personnel 15 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#5] Armed facility guards for 24/7 rotation (part of the 7 FTE security complement).
Security Supervisor 1 [#5] Security supervisor/backfill (included in 7 FTE security complement).
Research Scientist 6 [#7] Senior research staff (6 senior scientists as budgeted in analyst notes).
Research Technician 2 [#7] Technical support staff (2 techs as budgeted in analyst notes).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes are detailed with explicit ranges for most items (higher confidence for staffing, equipment, and recurring operational costs). Large one-time contingency reserves and the frequency/severity of real-world actualizations are inherently uncertain, producing a medium confidence rating.
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