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SCP-4294 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-4294
Expected annual
$86.4M
One-time setup
$1.9B
Annual recurring
$83.1M
Personnel
150
One-time capital outlays for sensors, hardened equipment and contingency facilities dominate (≈ $1.87B), while ongoing global monitoring, covert takedown/cover operations and a standing MTF drive annual costs (~ $83.1M/yr). Main drivers: sensor/constellation options, mitigation R&D, intelligence/takedown operations and MTF staffing.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.9B
Facilities $1.0B
[#5, #8, #27] Mobile/hardened forward operating base construction and storm-rated site/radar site structural upgrades; includes long-term contingency/permanent containment capital (very large).
Equipment $522.0M
[#1, #7, #9, #10, #20, #22] AI development hardware and inference cluster (dev deployment), private microsatellite constellation capital (alternative), HAPS platform fleet capex, storm-hardened unmanned R&D procurement capital, secure communications hardware, and logistics fleet vehicle purchases.
Mitigation Research And Capital $250.0M
[#11] Specialized interception/mitigation R&D capital (ordnance/delivery/testing facilities) — speculative high-cost program.
Contingency Reserve Capital $50.0M
[#29] One-time contingency reserve / capital set-aside for catastrophic/unplanned capital expenses and insurance pool funding.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $16.0M
[#17, #19] BSL-4-capable lab outfitting and initial integration of environmental/forecasting model compute/instruments.
Evacuation Stockpiles $3.0M
[#15] One-time planning stockpiles and staging supplies for evacuation/sheltering.
Investigation Initial Push $2.0M
[#24] Initial dedicated investigative operation into POI-4294-01 (Maxine) — travel, SIGINT/HUMINT push, informant payments.
Aviation Cover Documents And Bribes $1.0M
[#12] One-off cover document forgery and jurisdictional bribe budgets to enable ATC spoofing/legal cover during operations.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $83.1M/yr
Cover Story And Legal $19.5M/yr
[#2, #12, #24, #25, #29] Global media/cyber takedown teams and rapid removal contract funds, recurring aviation-control/spoofing operational costs, ongoing investigation follow-up, long-term covert payments/legal cover and audit/oversight recurring costs.
Research And Monitoring $15.5M/yr
[#6, #11, #17, #19, #28] SAR imagery leasing and tasking, ongoing mitigation testing operations, BSL-4 lab operations and staffing, environmental modelling operations, and funded scientific research programs.
Staff Wages $15.0M/yr
[#3] MTF Omicron-88 standing personnel salaries & benefits (80–150 personnel); baseline assumed staffing at scale (~150 FTE fully burdened).
Storm Unmanned Ops $10.0M/yr
[#10] Ongoing field operations and sustainment for storm-capable unmanned platforms after R&D/procurement.
Logistics And Transport $9.4M/yr
[#22, #23, #13, #15, #21, #16, #26] Fleet maintenance/fuel for snow/remote vehicles, forward-site generator fuel, flight rerouting compensation, evacuation event reserve, ground security/perimeter enforcement, rapid medical response readiness, and infrastructure repair reserve for post-event claims.
Ai Ops And Inference $6.0M/yr
[#1] Cloud/GPU inference, model updates, secure hosting and forensic logging operations for TSATPWTCOTTTADC.aic.
Emergency Services Coordination $3.0M/yr
[#14] Liaison officers, joint SOPs, shared comms nets and ongoing joint exercises with local emergency services across partnered regions.
Facilities Maintenance $2.7M/yr
[#5, #8, #20] Maintenance, heating and upkeep for mobile command centers/forward bases, upgraded radar sites and secure communications maintenance.
Training And Exercises $1.0M/yr
[#4] Specialized cold-weather, high-wind flight planning, ATC deception and multi-agency exercises and recurring training.
Supplies And Consumables $500K/yr
[#18] PPE, field consumables, hazardous-waste disposal contracts and routine sampling consumables.
Public Health And Psych Support $500K/yr
[#30] Public mental health and staff psychological support programs and amnestic-related care.
Microsatellite Ops $0/yr
[#7] Operating cost for private SAR constellation (set to 0 in baseline because leasing is assumed the default; applicable if capital option executed).
Haps Ops $0/yr
[#9] Operations and station-keeping for HAPS/stratospheric assets (0 in baseline unless purchased/deployed).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $83.1M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal year with regular monitoring, MTF operations, AI ops, leasing sensors and routine training/cover activities; no major Inquiry Event requiring large-scale evacuation or infrastructure repairs.
no_inquiry_event routine_surveillance standard_cover_ops
🚨 Minor Inquiry Event $91.1M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Localized Inquiry Event requiring evacuations, targeted medical deployments and rapid takedown/cover expenditures.
SCP_descends_below_1km regional_evacuations targeted_infrastructure_damage
🚨 Major Inquiry Event $190.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$107.0M vs baseline
Large-scale event with significant infrastructure damage, prolonged evacuations and extensive public indemnity and repair payouts.
multi-regional_inquiry major_infrastructure_damage high-profile_civilian_exposure
👥 Personnel 150 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 60 [#3] Frontline armed task force personnel for containment, perimeter enforcement and direct response.
Pilots / Flight Crew 10 [#3, #9] Pilots for recon sorties, HAPS operations liaison and storm-capable flight operations.
Medical Officer / Medics 10 [#3, #16] Rapid-response medics and trauma teams for Inquiry Events and ongoing readiness.
Intelligence Analyst / SIGINT 20 [#3, #24, #25] Intelligence, SIGINT/HUMINT analysts supporting investigation into POI and global cover operations.
Engineer / Maintenance 15 [#5, #8, #22] Technical staff for mobile base upkeep, radar/site maintenance and vehicle/fleet maintenance.
Research Scientist 15 [#17, #19, #28] BSL-4 lab scientists, environmental modelers and long-term scientific program staff.
Administrative Staff 10 [#3, #29] Admin, logistics planners and audit/oversight liaisons.
Support Staff (logistics/cooks/communications) 9 [#5, #22, #20] Field logistics, comms operators and base support for forward operating sites.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#3] Senior on-site command and liaison with higher Foundation leadership and local authorities.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, allowing a medium-confidence aggregate; however large ranges, optional alternatives (private satellite constellation vs leasing), and uncertain event frequency produce material uncertainty.
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