SCP-4302 — SCP-4302 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-4302 Keter ? low confidence

SCP-4302

Expected annual

$62.5M

One-time setup

$20.3M

Annual recurring

$58.1M

Personnel

265

Baseline first-year capital ~ $20.3M (containment chamber, manifestors, drones, ROC, sensors, lab). Annual recurring operations ~ $58.1M/yr driven mainly by security/perimeter enforcement, staffing, consumables and contingency reserve.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $20.3M

Equipment $11.4M

[#2, #5, #6, #8, #11, #20] Manifestor installation, secure communications backbone (initial), specialized drone fleet development, non-visual sensor suites procurement, camera-detection hardware, and initial data servers (midpoint estimates summed).

Facilities $7.2M

[#1, #3, #4, #9, #17] Containment chamber construction, HVAC/fire suppression/airlocks, remote operations center buildout, perimeter infrastructure, and medical/mortuary setup (midpoint estimates summed).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.8M

[#16] Specialized laboratory instrumentation and secure sample handling setup (mass spectrometers, detectors, secure vaults) - initial procurement midpoint.

Civilian Compensation And Relocation $0

[#12] Civilian buyout/relocation/compensation is optional and ranges widely (0 to tens/hundreds of millions); set to $0 in baseline capital. Significant one-time cost reserved for scenario modeling.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $58.1M/yr

Staff Wages $29.8M/yr

[#10, #15] Security/perimeter enforcement wages (primary driver) plus dedicated scientific research staff salaries (midpoint estimates).

Contingency Fund Allocation $10.0M/yr

[#23] Annual reserve allocation for emergency escalation, rapid global response, mass amnestic production and emergency procurement (set-aside; actual drawdowns occur in incident years).

Logistics And Transport $6.0M/yr

[#10] Vehicles, fuel, mobile patrol logistics and rapid-response transport supporting perimeter enforcement (portion of #10 recurring estimate).

Supplies And Consumables $4.0M/yr

[#7, #16, #19, #11] Drone consumables and routine maintenance spares, lab consumables, expendables/attrition allowance, and camera-countermeasure replacement/maintenance.

Cover Story And Legal $3.0M/yr

[#13, #14] Amnestics, records modification, legal counsel, government/FAA liaison and public affairs coordination (recurring budget for ongoing amnestic/cover operations and liaison).

Administrative Overhead $1.2M/yr

[#25] Program management, procurement, accounting, insurance and miscellaneous contractual costs.

Environmental Mitigation $1.1M/yr

[#22] Monitoring and remediation for agricultural/ecological impacts within the 35 km exclusion zone.

Internal Audits And Counterintelligence $1.0M/yr

[#24] Ongoing internal security, background checks, audits, and leak/whistleblower mitigation.

Facilities Maintenance $600K/yr

[#18] Energy and utilities (power for manifestors, HVAC, backup fuel consumption) and basic facility upkeep.

Medical Readiness And Mortuary $600K/yr

[#17] Recurring staffing, supplies, and operations for field medics, secure autopsy suite and psychological care.

Training And Sops $500K/yr

[#21] Annual SOP refreshes, drills, operator training, and emergency exercises.

Research And Monitoring $200K/yr

[#8, #20] Sensor calibration and non-visual data acquisition maintenance plus secure archive operations.

Comms Lease And Maintenance $50K/yr

[#5] Recurring satellite/fiber lease, link maintenance and cyber-hardening (annual operating portion).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $58.1M/yr

68.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with no major incidents; only routine recurring costs incurred.

no_incidents routine_operations

🚨 Minor Incident $60.6M/yr

25.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline

Localized incident requiring emergency response, additional amnestics, replacement of several drones and targeted PR/legal actions.

local_manifestation_damage small_civilian_exposure drone_loss

🚨 Major Breach $83.1M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline

Significant containment breach or public exposure requiring large-scale emergency response, increased amnestics, temporary perimeter reinforcement and international liaison.

widespread_media_exposure multiple_casualties extended_breach

🚨 Civilian Buyout $183.1M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$125.0M vs baseline

Policy decision to buy out/relocate populations within 35 km rather than rely on persistent policing; large one-time compensation and relocation payments.

policy_change_to_relocation legal_requirements escalating_civilian_risk

👥 Personnel 265 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	250	[#10] Primary perimeter enforcement force (rotating staff across 35 km exclusion zone).
Research Scientist	15	[#15] Dedicated scientific team for anomaly characterization, remote operations and data analysis.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates use midpoints of wide ranges; key drivers (manifestor power draw, attrition rate, casualty frequency, and policy decisions like buyouts) are poorly quantified, producing low confidence.

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