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SCP-4345 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-4345
Expected annual
$30.0M
One-time setup
$29.6M
Annual recurring
$29.0M
Personnel
114
One-time setup ~ $29.6M for specialized ward, lab, vehicles, equipment and seed contingency; recurring baseline operations ~ $29.0M/yr driven by clinical care, staff wages, supplies and ongoing research/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $29.6M
Facilities $10.5M
[#3, #10, #16] Quarantine/isolation ward retrofit/construction (~$10,000,000), secure facility infrastructure upgrades (~$350,000) and generator/backup power one-time purchase (~$125,000).
Contingency Seed Fund $10.0M
[#18] Seed reserve for sudden large outbreaks, emergency procurement, mass amnestic campaigns or settlements recommended $10,000,000 (seed).
Equipment $5.6M
[#2, #7, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15] Rapid Response Teams vehicles & portable kits (~$750,000), non-pharmacologic implant/device batch & procedure procurement (~$3,000,000), PPE stockpile (~$150,000), autoclave purchase (~$100,000), biorepository freezers & fit-out (~$300,000), secure/data hardware (~$600,000), and fleet acquisition for field ops (~$700,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.5M
[#4] BSL-3 diagnostic laboratory buildout and Hume-assay development (instruments, assay R&D and validation) estimated ~$3,500,000 one-time.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $29.0M/yr
Staff Wages $11.8M/yr
[#1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9, #10, #14, #17, #19] Aggregate personnel wages covering surveillance epidemiologists & data scientists, RRT salaries, quarantine ward clinical staff, diagnostic lab personnel, clinical care staff, research staff, legal/PR/admin salaries, security guard payroll, IT/data security staff, training/mental-health staff, and regulatory/admin staff.
Supplies And Consumables $9.2M/yr
[#5, #7, #11, #12, #13, #8] Clinical care consumables for chronic patient management (~$8,000,000/yr non-staff portion), device maintenance (~$500,000/yr), PPE consumables (~$300,000/yr), medical waste disposal (~$150,000/yr), biorepository LN2/electricity/maintenance (~$65,000/yr), and modest ongoing amnestic inventory/stock upkeep (~$200,000/yr).
Research And Monitoring $3.5M/yr
[#1, #4, #6, #20] Non-staff surveillance & epidemiology ops (hosting/alerts/field sampling ~$530,000), diagnostic reagents/QC (~$250,000), non-staff research consumables/trials (~$2,500,000/yr), and contingency planning/modeling for catastrophic scenarios (~$200,000/yr).
Logistics And Transport $1.1M/yr
[#2, #15, #10] Recurring travel, deployment and RRT operational costs (~$750,000/yr) plus fleet maintenance/fuel/refrigerated transport (~$400,000/yr) and secure transport ops.
Facilities Maintenance $1.1M/yr
[#3, #16] Ongoing operations and maintenance for quarantine/isolation ward and premium energy/HVAC/generator maintenance (~$1,050,000/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $1.0M/yr
[#9] Ongoing disinformation, PR firm retainers, legal cover-up/retainers and payments to cooperating civilians (~$1,000,000/yr baseline).
Contingency Replenishment $1.0M/yr
[#18] Ongoing annual top-up / replenishment target for contingency/emergency fund to restore seed reserve after usage (~$1,000,000/yr baseline assumption).
Training And Staff Support $150K/yr
[#17] Regular containment drills, amnestic administration training and staff mental-health support outside of wages (~$150,000/yr).
Regulatory And Admin $100K/yr
[#19] Non-salary regulatory, IRB and covert coordination overhead costs (~$100,000/yr).
Data Security Ops $80K/yr
[#14] Ongoing operations, monitoring and ops costs for classified communications and air-gapped systems (~$80,000/yr non-staff).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $29.0M/yr
87.9% probability / year
Normal year of monitoring, clinical care, research and containment with no large-scale outbreak or mass amnestic campaign.
no_large_outbreak routine_surveillance steady_patient_load
🚨 Minor Outbreak $34.0M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized outbreak requiring surge RRT deployments, expanded clinic load, extra PR/legal response and short-term amnestic use.
regional_case_cluster multiple hospitalizations
🚨 Mass Amnestic Campaign $44.0M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Large-scale amnestic administration campaign (e.g., ~1000 people) to cover a public-facing outbreak; major PR/settlement costs.
large_public_exposure media_attention litigation_risk
🚨 Catastrophic Pandemic $229.0M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Widespread uncontrollable transmission requiring national/regional emergency response: mass quarantine, mass amnestics, global research surge and reparations.
sustained_human_transmission international_spread loss_of_containment
👥 Personnel 114 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 10 [#6] Staff assigned to pathogenesis/treatment research projects, preclinical and translational efforts.
Epidemiologist / Data Scientist 6 [#1] Surveillance and digital monitoring team (4 epidemiologists + 2 data analysts).
Diagnostic Lab Technician 6 [#4] Personnel for BSL-3 diagnostics, assay development and QC.
Rapid Response Team Member 15 [#2] 3 regional RRTs (~5 personnel per team: physician/ID, containment officer, 2 med techs, driver/security).
Quarantine Ward Medical Staff 30 [#3, #5] Clinical staff (nurses, physicians, therapists) for a 10–30 bed specialized ward and chronic patient management.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 25 [#10] 24/7 security coverage for sites, sample storage and transports (20–30 guards incl. supervisors).
Administrative Staff 6 [#19, #9] Admin support for covert record handling, legal coordination and program administration.
Engineer / Maintenance 4 [#16, #13] Facilities/engineering staff for HVAC/HEPA, generators, freezer backup and maintenance.
IT / Data Security Staff 2 [#14] Ops and monitoring staff for air-gapped servers, encrypted comms and classified record management.
Legal / PR / Cover Ops 3 [#9] Personnel coordinating disinformation campaigns, external legal retainers and cover-story maintenance.
Training / Mental Health Support Staff 2 [#17] Staff providing containment drills, amnestic administration training and counseling/defusing services.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#19] Program leadership and executive coordination.
Logistics / Drivers 4 [#15, #2] Drivers and logistics personnel for armored vans, refrigerated transport and rapid deployments.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are built from analyst ranges and mid-point assumptions; many line items (patient counts, outbreak frequency/severity, effectiveness of cover-ops and amnestic campaigns) are highly uncertain, producing moderate confidence.
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