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SCP-4379 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4379
Expected annual
$1.9M
One-time setup
$8.4M
Annual recurring
$1.9M
Personnel
14
Initial, one-time establishment and contingency funding dominate costs (facility retrofits, power isolation, lab equipment, and a sizeable mission contingency). Recurring costs are driven by specialized lunar-capable personnel wages, ongoing research/monitoring, equipment maintenance, and legal/cover operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.4M
Transportation Mission Contingency Per Mission $5.0M
[#26] Per-mission contingency estimate for a dedicated lunar↔Earth transfer/launch if urgently required (budgetary placeholder; actual mission cost highly variable).
Contingency Reserve Fund $1.0M
[#23] One-time catastrophic contingency / reserve fund established to cover large unexpected losses, recovery missions, or replacements.
Facilities $945K
[#5, #6, #8, #18, #29] Ventilation-shaft hardware and lockouts (#5), regulator interlocks and control hardware/software (#6), emergency backup/isolation capacity or switchgear/reactor upgrades (#8), signage and protocol placement (#18), and decommissioning/sealing contingency (#29).
Equipment $820K
[#3, #7, #9, #10, #11, #15, #19, #20, #21, #22, #25] Parachute stock purchases (#3), power/forensic meters (#7), LiDAR/UAV mapping suite (#9), communications/relay nodes (#10), SAR gear and extraction systems (#11), environmental monitoring array (#15), initial PPE and decon station (#19), autonomous samplers (#20), greenhouse/ex-situ equipment (#21), spares stock (#22), and IT/server hardware (#25).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $400K
[#13] On-site laboratory upgrades and core scientific instruments (bench-top sequencer, centrifuges, PCR, storage fridges) for plant genetics, soil/isotope analysis, and sequencing.
Research Contingency Pool $200K
[#24] One-time rapid-response research contingency to fund urgent, expensive tests or experiments if anomalous behavior changes.
Initial Training And Certification $50K
[#4] Initial parachute/airborne training costs and simulators for entry pool (one-time initial training for ~10-person pool).
Sample Packaging And Return Preparation $12K
[#14] Initial costs for secure on-site sample packaging and contamination-control equipment for routine handling/preparation.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.9M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#1, #2, #11, #16, #27] Salaries and hazard pay for a small permanent team: senior researchers + lab techs/systems engineer (#1), security/monitoring operators (#2), SAR/medevac staffing readiness (#11), psychological screening/counseling and rotation costs (#16), and program/administrative staff (#27).
Research And Monitoring $286K/yr
[#7, #13, #15, #21, #24, #25] Ongoing power data storage/analysis (#7), outsourcing/complex-test allocations and sequencing consumables (#13), environmental data storage/calibration (#15), long-term ecological monitoring funding including ex-situ collections (#21), annual allocation for rapid-response research (#24), and secure IT hosting/maintenance (#25).
Supplies And Consumables $181K/yr
[#3, #4, #9, #10, #12, #13, #14, #19, #20, #22] Parachute repack/inspection cycles (#3), recurring recertification training costs (#4), mapping/drone maintenance consumables (#9), repeater power/maintenance (#10), expedition consumables per-sortie (#12), lab consumables (#13), routine packaging consumables (#14), PPE consumables/decon supplies (#19), sampler consumables (#20), and parts/shop consumables (#22).
Cover Story And Legal $165K/yr
[#17, #28] Ongoing legal, ethics review, cover-story maintenance, contractor plausibly-deniable work, and leak prevention/enforcement costs.
Contingency Reserve Replenishment $100K/yr
[#23] Annual replenishment budget to rebuild the catastrophic contingency/reserve as incidents drain it.
Facilities Maintenance $9K/yr
[#6, #15] Recurring audits/updates of regulator interlocks and periodic calibration/maintenance of environmental monitoring sensors.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.9M/yr
93.8% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, monitoring, and no major incidents.
routine_operations scheduled_research no_major_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $2.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$100K vs baseline
Small-scale equipment failure, minor SAR/recovery, or limited research incident requiring repairs and short-term medevac support.
equipment_failure small_SAR_activation minor_medical_evacuations
🚨 Major Search And Recovery $2.4M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant personnel loss or complex multi-day SAR requiring extensive recovery, replacement equipment, and possible external contractor support.
prolonged_missing_person_search multi-day_recovery_mission
🚨 Sample Return Mission $6.9M/yr
0.2% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Urgent dedicated transfer/launch to return high-priority samples or personnel to Earth or off-site facility.
critical_sample_return urgent_personnel_transfer
👥 Personnel 14 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 2 Senior Level-3 researchers responsible for authorization, analysis, and oversight. [#1]
Lab Technician 1 On-site sample processing, sequencing prep, and lab maintenance. [#1, #13]
Systems Engineer 1 Maintains interlocks, power monitoring, and remote actuators. [#1, #6, #7]
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 Access control, ventilation-shaft entry enforcement, and monitoring operators. [#2]
Medical Officer / SAR Medic 2 Search & rescue readiness, quarantine oversight, and medical response. [#11, #16]
Engineer / Maintenance 1 On-site repair shop technician for drones, comms, and mechanical systems. [#22, #9]
Administrative Staff 1 Clerical support, mission manifests, and chain-of-custody coordination. [#27, #25]
Program Manager / Executive Staff 1 Program oversight, budget control, and clearance approvals. [#27]
Psychological Counselor 1 Screening, counseling, and rotation planning for explorer pool. [#16]
📋 Confidence Notes
Many recurring personnel and routine maintenance costs are well-bounded, but large uncertainties exist for contingency items (sample returns, major recovery, reactor-scale upgrades). Estimates use midpoints and conservative contingency placeholders; actual one-time contingency/mission costs could be orders of magnitude larger.
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