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SCP-4468 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4468
Expected annual
$1.3M
One-time setup
$426K
Annual recurring
$1.3M
Personnel
6
One-time setup and contingency reserves are modest (~$426k) while ongoing monitoring, research, and legal/ethical oversight dominate annual costs (~$1.27M/yr); main drivers are research staff and legal/cover operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $426K
Emergency Response Reserve $300K
[#20] One-time contingency / rapid-response reserve fund to be held available for crisis scaling.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $35K
[#6, #10] Database and chain-of-custody / secure DB setup and initial research database build-out.
Equipment $33K
[#3, #15] Van outfitting and initial evidence-collection kit procurement (#3) plus audio/video recording gear (#15).
Media Cover Setup $30K
[#14] Setup of optional front organization / media/cover organization for long-term plausible deniability.
Facilities $10K
[#4] One-time shelving, RFID tagging setup and small safe/shelving installation for specimen storage.
Legal Initial Analysis $10K
[#7] Initial legal analysis and drafting for privacy/ethics compliance.
Training Program Setup $8K
[#13] Initial training program development for pediatric ethics and non-interference protocols.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.3M/yr
Staff Wages $460K/yr
[#1, #2, #6, #8] Salaries: 1FTE liaison, research staff salaries (partial of program), agent wages (partial), on-call/contract therapist.
Research And Monitoring $251K/yr
[#5, #6, #10, #13] Per-sample forensic/material analysis (#5), research ops and reagents portion of program (#6), hosting/maintenance of secure DB (#10), annual refresher training (#13).
Cover Story And Legal $230K/yr
[#7, #9, #12, #14] Ongoing ethics/legal counsel and policy work (#7), family relations/compensation and cover costs (#9), medical-record access/legal fees (#12), ongoing front-org maintenance (#14).
Administrative Overhead $212K/yr
[#21] Administrative overhead allocated to program (~20% of recurring program costs as calculated).
Logistics And Transport $75K/yr
[#1, #2, #11, #16] Travel/communications for liaison (#1 portion), covert ops travel and per-op costs (#2 portion), insured courier/shipping (#11), specimen disposition logistics (#16).
Insurance And Liability $30K/yr
[#18] Insurance, worker's comp, liability coverage for field and hospital operations.
Supplies And Consumables $8K/yr
[#3, #15, #17] Consumable evidence kits restock (#3), audio/recording replacements (#15), field/lab incidentals (#17).
Facilities Maintenance $4K/yr
[#4, #19] Climate control maintenance, small storage power and utilities for specimens.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.3M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal year with monitoring, routine collections, and ongoing research/legal oversight but no major incidents.
steady sample rate (~50/yr) no public exposure normal research cadence
🚨 Minor Incident $1.5M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized operational incident requiring extra legal support, emergency collection surge, or short-term hiring/contracting.
data leak / hospital complaint temporary spike in sampling small PR/legal response
🚨 Major Breach $2.3M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Public exposure or major legal/ethical incident requiring large-scale emergency response, litigation defense, and rapid research scaling.
public leak / media exposure regulatory/legal action large-scale scaling of research
👥 Personnel 6 total
Role Count Notes
Liaison / Hospital Liaison Officer 1 [#1] 1 FTE liaison who monitors Make-A-Wish schedules and hospital coordination.
Research Scientist 3 [#6] 2–3 researchers / analysts (modelled as 3) responsible for correlation, data analysis, and sample testing.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1 [#2] Covert/field agent support for occasional collection operations (partial FTE allocated).
Medical Officer / Therapist 1 [#8] On-call or part-time therapist / EAP support allocated to program (modelled as 1 FTE equivalent).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates combine specific line-item analyst figures and midpoint assumptions where ranges were provided; several items (research staffing level, emergency reserve usage, legal costs) had wide ranges so totals are moderately uncertain.
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