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SCP-4518 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-4518
Expected annual
$1.7M
One-time setup
$926K
Annual recurring
$1.7M
Personnel
11
One-time startup costs are moderate (~$0.93M) dominated by legal contingency and initial equipment; recurring annual costs are driven by on-site security and rapid-response staffing (~$1.67M/yr). Major cost variance arises from optional research/legal escalation and lease vs. vehicle/van choices.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $926K
Liability Contingency $500K
[#25] Conservative one-time contingency fund/reserve for potential lawsuits or major legal exposure (note #25).
Equipment $175K
[#11, #14, #17, #8, #26, #27] Surveillance hardware and installation (#14/#13), solar/battery power setup (#17/#16), amnestic storage/refrigeration (#8/#7), mobile unit/van purchase and retrofit (#11/#10), vehicles purchase for response (#26), and initial evidence-handling infrastructure (#27).
Facilities $166K
[#1, #30] Includes perimeter fence and gate installation (note #1) and potential decommission/long-term closure work (note #30).
Legal And Permitting Initial $60K
[#23] Initial legal, permitting, cover/liaison setup costs and one-time legal work (note #23).
Training Program Development $18K
[#22] Initial SOP and training program development (note #22).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $8K
[#19] Archival/scanner purchase and digitization labor for the posters (note #19).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.7M/yr
Staff Wages $927K/yr
[#3, #5, #6] Baseline 24/7 on-site security (6 guards) (~$412,000/yr incl. benefits), quick-response team on-call (4 agents) (~$400,000/yr incl. benefits), and medic/medical support (~$115,000/yr).
Research And Monitoring $324K/yr
[#15, #19, #20, #29] Surveillance/cloud storage & monitoring (~#15), archival secure off-site storage (~#19), forensic/cold-case research baseline budget (~#20), and containment review/research program (~#29).
Reduced Offsite Monitoring $180K/yr
[#4] Alternative lower-cost security posture (reduced on-site hours + remote monitoring) estimated separately for comparison (note #4).
Local Operations Lease $66K/yr
[#12] Lease of local operations/holding space near site (note #12).
Cover Story And Legal $55K/yr
[#23, #24] Ongoing legal liaison/reimbursements (~#23) and public relations/cover maintenance (~#24).
Mobile Unit Lease $54K/yr
[#10] Lease alternative / recurring cost for mobile processing space instead of purchasing a van (note #10).
Psychological Support $25K/yr
[#21] Employee assistance, counseling sessions, and resilience program budget (note #21).
Supplies And Consumables $14K/yr
[#9, #27, #28] Amnestic consumables and disposables (~#9), recurring evidence-storage/chain-of-custody costs (~#27), and miscellaneous consumables/incidentals (#28).
Logistics And Transport $12K/yr
[#26] Insurance, fuel, and maintenance for response vehicles (note #26).
Training Refreshers $10K/yr
[#22] Recurring refresher training and SOP updates (note #22).
Facilities Maintenance $3K/yr
[#2] Fence and perimeter maintenance, repainting, permit renewals and weather/vandalism repairs (note #2).
Electricity And Utilities $3K/yr
[#16, #18] Ongoing electricity/utilities if leased space is used; recurring power costs (note #16/#18).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.7M/yr
65.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with standard containment posture and routine operations.
no major incidents regular maintenance and staffing routine research activity
🚨 Minor Incident $1.7M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$47K vs baseline
Occasional trespassers or small on-site incidents requiring field response, detainment and additional amnestic use.
civilian trespass small-scale medical treatment/amnestics overtime for response team
🚨 Major Breach $2.1M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$397K vs baseline
Significant exposure, contested detention or legal action requiring extensive legal defense, PR response, and emergency containment measures.
media exposure lawsuit or criminal investigation multiple civilian injuries or contested amnesticization
🚨 Research Scale Up $1.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$247K vs baseline
Active forensic/cold-case investigation and expanded research program into the posters/entity, requiring additional contractors, DNA testing, and equipment.
forensic leads initiated DNA testing and genealogical tracing expanded research staffing
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#3] Six guards (2 per shift, 3 shifts) assumed for 24/7 on-site security; wages included in staff_wages.
Rapid Response Team / Field Agents 4 [#5] Four on-call field agents for rapid detainment/amnesticization; wages included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer 1 [#6] One medic/PA for supervision of amnestic administration and medical oversight; wages included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates derived from analyst note ranges and common SF market assumptions; many line items have wide ranges (leases, legal contingency, research scope) producing moderate uncertainty. Staffing figures are better-defined; contingency/legal outcomes are the main uncertain drivers.
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